Journalism

The Tribune's Missed Opportunity

2009-02-02T17:15:00.001-08:00

The Eagle-Tribune didn't print this obituary (kind of) for John Updike that I penned the evening of his death. Here, I share it with you.

Adieu, Mr. Updike

By Matthew Osgood

“Who will do it again? That’s it: No one;

Imitators and descendants aren’t the same.”

-John Updike, Perfection Wasted (1990)

During my second semester of college, I, as a young journalist, was introduced for the first time to John Updike though his iconic 1961 article in The New Yorker, “Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu,” about Ted Williams final game at Fenway Park. If you haven’t read it, look it up. It is required reading for sports fans and non-sports fans alike. As a writer green to the profession, I was stunned and awed by the deviation from the characteristic restriction of language usually displayed by journalists. The lyricism, the insight, and the mastery of consciousness and idiom showed a level of journalism I’d never seen. The language impacted legions of journalists. Of course, I was one of the many to count his influence.

I was blindsided by the news of his death when I heard through a friend in the newspaper business on Tuesday evening. We lost a giant of the writing field, who, at the time of his death at the age of 76 had produced an incredibly immense portfolio of fiction, short stories, essays, and poems. If he wasn’t the greatest writer of our time, he’s on the very short list. To provide a little perspective, news of Updike’s death appeared on the main page of the online versions of at least the Boston Globe, the New York Times, and the Los Angeles Times.

I learned about Updike’s writing during my undergraduate years at Springfield College through my journalism professor. This valuable recommendation encouraged me, as the years progressed towards my own endeavors into the education field, to share Updike’s writing with own my classroom. He was a champion for the cause of the literary-minded; He was not a sports writer, he was a writer who wrote about sports on occasion.

When a favorite writer dies, it’s an odd sensation. You feel like you’ve spent countless hours with him because, in essence, you have. If you’re a writer, you read authors like Updike and marvel at their use of tone, syntax, and language. You read every individual sentence with an incredible amount of attention to detail and shake your head at the idea that anyone can write that way. It’s like watching Larry Bird hit jumper after jumper. That’s what John Updike did. He used erudite words that sometimes necessitated a dictionary and they were always used correctly, he provided an insight into American society that no one else could have provided, and he made you feel, as you read his essays, novels, or criticisms, that he was writing to and for you.

Updike was a staunch Red Sox fan. A native Pennsylvanian, he came to the Commonwealth to study at Harvard University and never left. He wrote numerous pieces on the Boston Red Sox teams from the ill-fated 1967 squad to the present day juggernaut. He was one of the very few remaining old-fashioned journalists. Updike lived the writer’s dream of doing the one thing he loved for a living. It’s a pipe-dream for some, but he made it seem that much more realistic.

Time and time again we return to our favorite writers. Their ability to enliven us and console us is unmatched. We re-read in between other writer’s novels. We dog-ear pages with our favorite passages, and overzealously share them with our friends. We look to our favorite writers to articulate our sentiments on love and death, weddings vows and national tragedies. When that writer’s voice is silenced, the words endure, which is where the deceased author’s fans take solace. The well will eventually run dry, new words will cease to emerge, but the enduring ones will persist and resonate even more profoundly than ever.

Every writer fantasizes about a chance meeting with one of their literary heroes. This is especially encouraging with Updike, who lived a short drive away in Beverly Farms. He seemed accessible to writers in this area, a guy who you’d run into after church on an idle Sunday morning who would be willing to grab a coffee and talk about the craft of writing, or recommend a book.

And so we waited, like Updike did in the “lyric little bandbox” that is Fenway Park on September 28, 1960 for our hero to give us a curtain call, to emerge from the dugout one final time and give us just a wave of the cap. I should have known better; As Updike told us in that article many years ago, gods do not answer letters.

Week 14 picks

2008-12-07T07:42:00.000-08:00

Here are the picks for week 14 in the NFL. Clay is in blue, Oz in black.

We’ve got three pick ‘em games this weekend and I’m pretty sure we won’t see 10 of 12 road teams winning this week. That was nuts and I can’t believe you did so well last week even with that stat. I’m sitting here during my break period and doing the best with the time I have. Relax, I have projects due today. I’m really not slacking.

I’m slacking, but that’s ok. I did kick ass last week, I got 13 of 16 to win the week in my pickem pool. This week I don’t feel so good about the dogs. I actually like mostly favorites, that’s tough.

By the way, I am glad Norv Turner finally realized that when you run the ball more, you control the clock and it’s the opposing team’s defense that gets tired and gives up the big play late in the game. Good timing Norv.

15. Minnesota @ Detroit (+9.5): The Lions are atrocious against the run and the Vikings have the best back in the NFL. I’m pretty sure Peterson will run for 200 yards this game if they don’t yank him after scoring on his first three touches, which is a possibility.

Minnesota (-9.5)

I am leaning towards the yank part because I am desperate in the playoffs and hoping for a big Chester Taylor day. This line got pulled until further notice on the Williams boys. I don’t care if they are playing or not, I wouldn’t change the line. This is a terrible matchup for a terrible team. Blowout city.

Vikings -10

14. Cleveland @ Tennessee (-13.5): Is Anderson going to play this weekend? If not, who is the Browns quarterback? We know Kellen Winslow will not be playing, which really hurts me in the second week of fantasy football playoffs. The Titans should dominate this game especially without the Browns having a good quarterback.

TENNESSEE -13.5

Our old Heisman winning friend Ken Dorsey will be leading the Browns to a 27-6 loss. The Cleveland defense has been decent, but their offense won’t do them any favors this week. The Titans will be up three scores at the half and run out the clock.

Titans -13.5

13. Cincinnati @ Indy (-14): Last week against the Browns, the Colts decided they wanted to play the worst offensive game since Manning took helm in Indianapolis. I don’t think we can count on two weeks in a row of that happening. They’ve won five in a row and are probably aiming to take advantage of playing a crappy team to get their offense back in gear. Twelve points is a lot, but I can see them winning by two scores against a really bad Bengals team.

INDIANAPOLIS -14

I could see Indy bouncing back too, and destroying them, but I could also see them playing like crap as they have pretty much all year. Indy has only one won game by more then 6 all year. Can you believe that? That was a game in which the defense did all of the work. Cincy is terrible and this should be a blowout, but I am going with the trend here.

Bengals +14

12. NYJ @ San Fran (+4.5): Even though they’ve been playing well, I’m down on the 49ers. I played with them on Madden last night and Shaun Hill threw two picks, was sacked five times, and fumbled twice. Just a terrible performance. I was happy to see the Jets lose last week. I don’t expect it to happen again, but I’m going with the hot team.

Jets (-4.5)

Damn, did you just call San Francisco the hot team? They have one two of three (wins against St Louis and Buf) but they have also won 2 of their last 9. Shaun Hill is a good fantasy QB in a league that doesn’t penalize for INTs. For a team to win, he is not. I told you the Jets were over rated by the way. I think they are getting under rated now, though, and SF is getting too much credit for a win out East. The Jets can throw the ball better then Buffalo and the Niners aren’t good against the pass. The Jets are too good stopping the run and Shaun Hill can’t win this game if he has to do all the work. He will make some mistakes as usual.

Jets -4.5

11. St. Louis @ AZ (-14): St. Louis is pretty bad (2-10) and Arizona is 5-1 at home. It’s still a tough call here because 14 points is a lot of points in the NFL. Do you realize the Cardinals could essential lock up the NFC West with a win? They’re 7-5. 8-5 “locks up” a win in that division?! You’ve got to be kidding me.

ARIZONA -14

Yeah, because the other three teams in the division make up three of the worst 5 teams in the NFL. St Louis shouldn’t be able to stop the Cardinals offense at all. Arizona will get in trouble later when their running game fails them, but you don’t need a running game to beat the Rams. They have two wins over this spread in their last ten, but one was at St Louis by 21. I’d like to take the points, but I can’t.

Cardinals -14

10. KC @ Denver (-9.5): Here’s what makes me mad: 1. Denver being so unpredictable 2. The fact that my school blocks out sites with the lines and ATS stats. How am I supposed to know what KC is ATS if I can’t get on? How am I supposed to back up my hypothesis that the Chiefs have been pretty solid ATS? I feel like I’ve done pretty well on them in the last few weeks. Is it possible that Thigpen is better than Huard and Croyle?

KC +9.5

Yes and yes. KC is 6-6 ATS, but 4-2 over their last 6. My problem has been picking them in my weekly money line parlay because they don’t win very often. I would love a win here, because then I could have hope once again for the Chargers just to be crushed in next week when they lose by a last second touchdown from Thigpen to Bowe on the last play of the game. I have taken the dog at Denver every game this year and that makes me 5-0 because Denver hasn’t covered a single game at home this year.

Chiefs +9.5

9. Miami @ Buffalo (pk): How is this possible that this game is a pick em? I should probably get this line before it goes to Miami -2 before Sunday. Miami is better than Buffalo. I’m impressed with this team.

Miami pk

I actually think Miami sucks. The league figured out their offense and now they can’t move the ball. Their defense is solid, but not great. The bills on the other hand have a shitty offense and a banged up defense. This isn’t even in Buffalo, its in Toronto in a dome, which sucks. This game would be more fun in Buffalo outside because they are both stronger in the running game. At least I would like watching a tough game on the ground. Basically, Miami has a better defense and a better QB.

Dolphins pk

8. New England @ Seattle (-4.5): Remember a couple weeks ago when there was all this, “are the Patriots going to trade Brady and keep Matt Cassel?” talk came up on ESPN and on the local radio shows? The answer is no. The Steelers, a very beatable Steelers team, wouldn’t have dominated the Patriots had Brady been on the field. They probably wouldn’t have even beaten them. Case closed. Oh, and the Victoria’s Secret fashion show was on the other night and Brady’s girlfriend is still really hot.

Do you realize the Seahawks are 1-5 at home?

New England -4.5

It is ludicrous that that conversation happened. Matt Cassel had two good games, and lets keep in mind he has two of the best receivers in the league. Brady has three Super Bowls, that’s more super bowl wins then Cassel has good games in his career. The Steelers are beatable, but they are good. Their defense gives them a shot that their O line tries to ruin. Sorry, tangent. Seattle is really bad and New England is pretty consistent. You know what you are getting from both teams. The Pats should have no trouble here. They may push Holmgren over the edge to actually cry after this one. Did you hear that last week? He almost cried in the locker room after the game?

Patriots -4.5

7. Washington @ Baltimore (Sun) (-6.5): Washington stinks. Jason Campbell is probably the most overrated quarterback in the NFL (and people don’t even think he’s that good!). He makes bad decisions at times and playing against the Ravens isn’t going to help his cause. The Ravens scored a lot of points last week and it’s hard to tell if they’re capable of doing it again, but I’m willing to make the call that it’s going to happen.

BALTIMORE -6.5

I think the Ravens offense is definitely capable. They have capitalized off of bad defenses, but I think they are solid. The defense is great, and Washington should have trouble moving the ball, especially with Portis banged up. I love this game. I am on the Ravens bandwagon, and I got off of the Redskins bandwagon in since they lost to St Louis and never recovered. The league figured out their offense too.

By the way, its funny you ranked this game 7^th, but NBC ranked it first I guess, picking it for the Sun night game. Although, this next game is definitely not more interesting.

Ravens -6.5

6. Jacksonville @ Chicago (-6): Jacksonville is coming off a short week (and a loss to Houston) and it just snowed in Chicago. This could be a tough game for the Jaguars with these factors. Add to the fact that this is a must-win game for the Bears. They can’t afford to drop below .500 in an already tight NFC North.

CHICAGO -6

To win the pickem last week I had Houston -3 and a one game lead. I was nervous until I read this quote from Fred Taylor.

"In my 11 years, this is probably the worst team, emphasize the word 'team,' that I've been on. We have some outstanding players, but the mix is bad. We can't really find that chemistry that we need. ... We don't have that mix and it's just tough right now."

Yeah, I am not going to bet on the Jags any more.

Bears -6

5. Houston @ Green Bay (-7): Houston is 1-5 on the road this year and heading into Lambeau Field really doesn’t do them any favors in improving that. That said, the Packers seem really content on letting people stick around in games. I think the Packers should win, but the Texans will stick around for a little while. This could be a late cover for the Pack, but I’m going to take my chances.

Houston (+7)

I don’t get the Packers. I can’t seem to give up on them, but their defense has been horrendous. This is a must win for them and that road record speaks for itself. I think after a very happy win at home on Monday night, they have a letdown against a better team. The Packers will pick off Sage a couple of times and the offense will bounce back for a big game against a poor Houston defense.

Packers -7

4. Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3): Remember, the home team always wins in this division (the home team is 22-2 in the NFC South). That’s good enough for me to pick the Saints with home cooking. How many touches did Bush get last week? Do you know?

NEW ORLEANS -3

Hard to pick here. I am not sure if Atlanta looked good or San Diego bad last week. I can’t see either defense doing much here. My heart says Atlanta, but you are right about the home teams in this division, and New Orleans should put a lot of points on the board. The Saints really are different at home in their dome.

Saints -3

3. Philly @ NYG (-8.5): This line is huge especially since the Eagles have had a week and a half to prepare for the Giants. The defending champs are 10-2 ATS this year, which is enough to make you want to bet on them every week until you lose, which is what I’ve been doing. I gotta stick with that trend. I’m bound to lose eventually, but why go against what has worked for seven weeks?

NYG -8.5

I agree, and that’s why I picked Tennessee vs the Jets even though I thought that was their week to go down. I don’t know if Philly can win this one, but no matter what the Giants say, Plax is a distraction and Philly has had a lot of time to prepare. I can’t say I’d be surprised by a 31-21 win from the Giants, but I have a feeling Philly plays tough this week. I don’t know, the Giants are rolling over everyone, and I feel like they will eventually get complacent, and what better week to do that with Plax getting all of the attention and the Giants actually thinking they are better without him.

Eagles +8.5

2. Tampa @ Carolina (Mon) (-3): Remember, home team is 22-2 in this division, probably the most competitive in the NFL (take that, NFC East!). Any team in the NFC South is capable of beating another. Both teams are 9-3 and at the top of the division. The good news is that the second place team should end up in the playoffs because of the weak West and the underachieving North.

CAROLINA -3

I think you are right about two teams from this division. The Panthers are scaring me lately with their run defense and Delhomme’s woes. On the other hand, Tampa has serious trouble moving the ball sometimes. I think this is a very boring game with lots of field goals. You have to take the home team, here, right? 22-2 is a pretty compelling argument. Its Monday night too, I always like the home team a bit more in this spot.

Panthers -3

1. Dallas @ Pitt (-3): The game of the week. Intriguing game here. Many people started to count Dallas out, but now they’re almost a lock for the playoffs. They looked great on Thanksgiving Day, but my high school team could look great against the Seattle Seahawks. Pittsburgh looked good defensively, forcing (what seemed like) a turnover on every Patriot second half possession. This should be a good game.

Dallas +3

Pitt has a great defense and their offense could be very good if their O Line didn’t hate pass blocking. I definitely wouldn’t say Dallas is a lock for the playoffs when they are 3 games out of the division (uncatchable) and currently tied for the last wild card with Pitt, NYG, Balt and Philly left to play, but the West is so crappy and the north isn’t likely to bring a wild card team, I guess they have a very good shot. Pitt has such a terrible field, I think that hurts their defense, which is just stupid. Dallas is a totally different team with Romo. This is tough, I am really looking forward to this game. It’s really a coin flip for me. I could argue for both teams. I think I will take Dallas just because Pitt is everyone’s favorite right now.

Cowyboys +3

Week 13 Picks

2008-11-30T07:18:00.000-08:00

Plaxico Burress pre-gunshot wound

We're back with the picks! Clay was off-duty this week, but gracious enough to give us his picks. Oz in black, Clay in blue. Good luck, gamblers.

San Francisco @ Buffalo (-7) Remember this was the dream match-up of the early 1990's? Everyone wanted to see Montana versus Jim Kelly, but neither team could ever beat the New York Giants? Well, now this game isn't really that good. Buffalo has been overrated since the beginning of the season (and even I'm guilty of being fooled). However, the 49ers are also a pretty bad team. I'm not expecting much from this game, but I think the Bills can win by a couple scores.

BUFFALO -7

San Francisco +7: This could be another blow out, but the Buffalo defense is hurting and SF could keep it close.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati (+7): The Bengals are one of four home dogs and rightfully so. If you don't think I'm willing to jinx the Ravens just so the Bengals upset them, you're crazy. All Patriots fans need to be rooting for the Ravens to lose every game from here on out. The Bengals won't be able to run the ball, so they'll have to throw. And Ryan Fitzpatrick is their quarterback. Just saying.

Baltimore -7

Baltimore -7: Bengals will score few.

Indianapolis @ Cleveland (+4.5): Seems like a no-brainer here. Nice schedule, Indianapolis! The Colts should be able to throw all over the Browns, whose secondary lets up about 370 passing yards a game. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in the last nine weeks. Put lots of money on the Colts. They need to keep winning to ensure a playoff spot.

Indy -4.5

Colts -4.5: Browns just got blown out at home by Houston.

Carolina @ Green Bay (-3): This should be a good game, but the Panthers record is misleading, especially on the road, where the Panthers are only 2-3 and score considerably less (23 pts vs. 18). With a spread this small - and a game this equal - you gotta take the home team.

GREEN BAY -3

Packers -3: I still think the Pack win their division.

Miami @ St. Louis (+9): Miami coming off a huge loss to the Patriots last week and the Rams having nothing to play for. The Phins go in and blow the Rams out.

Miami -9

St Louis +9: Miami sucks, so does St Louis, Miami failed to cover big spreads vs KC and Oakland already.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-4): The home team always wins in this division, keep that in mind. It doesn't matter who plays whom. Reggie Bush won't make much of a difference here. The Bucs were torched in New Orleans earlier in the year and I don't expect that to be the case when they play in front of a home crowd. Last year at Tampa Bay, the Saints were held to just under 200 yards total offense. I'm thinking it's going to be much of the same.

Tampa Bay -4

New Orleans +4: Reggie back, I think they go on a little run here.

New York Giants @ Washington (+3): What's been my rule? Bet on NYG every week. Results? 9-2 ATS. Should be much of the same unless Plaxico Burress decides he wants to shoot himself this week. Oh wait ...

NYG -3

NYG -3: Washington is not that good.

Atlanta @ San Diego (-5): Are you excited about Michael Turner returning to Qualcomm? I am. I'm sorry to tell everyone this, but the Chargers stink. The Falcons are pretty terrible ATS on the road, but the Chargers aren't much better defending their home turf.

Atlanta +5

Atlanta +5: Chargers lose by 2 or blow them out. Guess which one I expect?

Denver @ New York Jets (-9): So the Jets are now the hottest team in the NFL? I was listening to ESPN radio and they were talking about how nice it would be to have a "Subway Super Bowl," which makes no sense because even if the Giants and the Jets played in the Super Bowl, they wouldn't be "riding the subway," they'd be flying because the game is in Florida. I hate sports radio. They're all assholes. Either way, it kills me to say this, but the Jets are pretty good and they'll beat up on Denver at home.

NYJ -9

Broncos +9: This could be a blowout, but I think the Broncos score some points here.

Pittsburgh @ New England (-1.5): I'm really excited about this game and it should be the top ranked game. The Patriots lost two games they could have won (at Indy and versus the Jets), so they could realistically be 9-2 without Tom Brady, which is a fine thing to think about. Cassel is really starting to come into his own. Here's my question: if the Patriots (hypothetically) beat the Giants in the Super Bowl this year, would all this trade Brady talk be legit? I say no, but there are a lot of New England fans who might think so. That's amazing. No one ever wanted to trade Larry Bird when he was injured.

NEW ENGLAND -1.5

Steelers +1.5: Sorry, I think they are better, too many injuries, and Cassel's streak ends here against a great defense.

Kansas City @ Oakland (-3): Imagine your #1 and #2 quarterbacks went to the IR in the same season? Imagine they were named Brody Croyle and Damon Huard? Really? Those were your top choices? Imagine a guy named Tyler Thigpen was better than both of them? I'm amazed at all of this. They didn't even downgrade when their QB's went down. They all suck....but they're better than the Raiders.

Kansas City (+3)

KC +3: Raiders offense doesn't score like last week and KC should.

Chicago @ Minnesota (-3.5): This is the Sunday night game? It looks like I'm watching The Simpsons then Family Guy.

Minnesota -3.5

Chicago +3.5: I don't buy Ferotte.

The only thing worse than having the Bears and the Vikings play on Sunday night would be like having ....

Jacksonville @ Houston (-3.5) on Monday Night Football. I'm hoping Steve Slaton scores four times against the Jaguars. I need the fantasy points in the first week of the playoffs. Sure, I'll talk shit about the Texans playing on Monday night, but I'm actually okay with it. I bet this will be a better game than we think between two teams who have no shot at the postseason.

Houston -3.5

Houston -3.5: I guess Vegas finally realized that Jacksonville isn't good.

Week 12 pt 2.

2008-11-23T08:17:00.000-08:00

Week 12 picks are here. Sorry so late. Clay in blue, Oz in black. We're both 1-0 headed into the weekend.

6. Carolina @ Atlanta (-1)

I guess Atlanta deserves the respect, this division has been a win at home division. The Panthers look like crap recently against crappy teams. They should have their way on offense, but the Atlanta offense doesn’t seem to be fazed by anyone lately. Personally, I don’t think that Delhomme plays bad three weeks in a row, and I don’t think that Atlanta is better then Carolina. Carolina plays defense, Atlanta doesn’t.

Panthers +1

The Falcons are a pretty good team. This division is much more competitive than I thought it would be, too. As good as Matt Ryan is, he's going to have a tough time against the Carolina defense, which will mean Michael Turner will have to take over. Not easy against a solid defense. The Panthers will do just enough to win here. It won't be a blowout, but I'd take the points.

Panthers +1

5. Green Bay @ New Orleans

Wow, New Orleans finally got a win…at Kansas City. The Saints aren’t very good and the Packers are. The Packers play defense, they run the ball (Ryan Grant has surfaced this month) and they have a good passing offense. The Saints may be getting Reggie back this week, but he won’t be 100% and the packers are the better team here. Drew Brees is the kind of player who can keep his team in just about any game, so I can’t say I’d be surprised if the won this one at home, but I think the Packers are the better team.

Pack +2.5

The Packers are the better team here. It looked like (ready for my best Tim McCarver impression?) other teams were going to have to outscore the Saints in order to win, but that's settled down a little bit. Now everyone who has called Reggie Bush a bust, can they talk shit anymore? Since he got hurt the Saints have been awful. Just saying. You can say he's an injury-prone pussy, but at least he's not a bum.

Packers +2.5

4. New England @ Miami

So the new offense that demolished the Patriots in week 3 or something, and the offense succeeded for maybe a month afterward. Lately they can’t do anything on offense, and they squeaked out two wins the past two weeks against two of the worst teams in the NFL. I know Belichick tends to do better against teams for the second time, and this offense has definitely been figured out by everyone else already. I think the Patriots breeze through Miami, and they won’t be scared to run up the score this week if it comes down to it.

Patriots +2

I agree on many things here, especially the part about Belichick's success against a team the second time around. I wish I knew the record actually. I think the Patriots are feeling a sense of urgency here especially because they are now behind the eight-ball when it comes to the playoffs. They're in second place in the division and have lost to the Colts, who have the same record. The Pats have a tougher road to the playoffs and can't afford to lose this game.

Patriots +2

3. New York Jets @ Tennessee

We both thought this would be 3, but we also both thought we would bet our lives against it. It isn’t much higher, but 5 eliminates the touchdown for field goal trade. Two weeks running the Titans’ opponent has stacked the box and dared Kerry Collins to beat them. And he did. The Jets won’t have to stack the box because they have one of the top run defenses in the league, so will that be enough to slow this offense? Maybe. I don’t trust their secondary, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Favre make some poor decisions under pressure. This seems like a decent matchup for the Titans to lose their first against a confident team with enough playmakers on offense, and the right defense to pull it off. I don’t think they do, but this seems like a possibility.

Titans -5

The Titans will lose this week. It's going to kill me because I don't want to listen to people talking about Brett Favre being the best ever quarterback and even if Tom Brady wasn't injured that Favre might still be the best QB in the AFC. Tennessee is going to have a lot of pressure lifting off them this weekend. They'll lose, then relax, and stroll into the playoffs at 14-2 and I still can't name seven guys on their team.

Jets +5

2. Indianapolis @ San Diego

Let’s see, the Chargers have a terrible pass defense, and Peyton Manning is coming into town riding a winning streak. That is scary. The Chargers have had the Colts number the last few years, and have done so by putting lots of pressure on Peyton and picking off his hurried throws. This year the Chargers have no pass rush, so I don’t see that happening. This could be a shootout, because I don’t expect the Chargers to lie down, but I don’t expect them to stop the colts offense either. As a Charger fan, I am setting my expectations very low. As a gambler, I am thinking this is an effing great line.

Colts +3

Is everyone ready for a Manning versus Manning Super Bowl? Because that is what is going to happen. Colts are hot. Big win.

Colts +3

1. New York Giants @ Arizona

Arizona is pretty legit. Even though Seattle isn’t very good, that is never an easy place to play. Their offense is going to get theirs against anyone, and their defense has been respectable. The problem here is that the Giants not only are 20 points better then every other NFC West team, they are better then every NFL team. Their pass rush is going to make Kurt Warner dance, and that is never a good thing. I think the Giants bring too much firepower here. The defense will be the best they have faced, and the offense will be one of the better too. As long as Eli doesn’t blow this, the Giants should win the turnover battle and the game.

Giants -3

What's all this talk about Kurt Warner being the NFL's MVP? You have to give it to Brandon Jacobs. It's unbelievable. Why can't people see that Jacobs is the best player on the best team? This is staggering. We'll see how tough Warner is this weekend against the G-Men.

Does is come across that we're Giants fans, do you think? We have them ranked number one every week. We're not Giants fans. In fact, I hate the Giants. I represent everything for which I have unaffected scorn. But it's easy money betting on them.

Giants -3

Week 12 pt 1

2008-11-23T08:13:00.000-08:00

Here are the week 12 picks. (Sorry they are late) Clay in blue, Oz in black. We're both 1-0 after the Steelers 17 point victory over the Bengals.

Washington @ Seattle (+6.5) Seattle got too much love last week, how about now? We're right on here. Should be about right.

Actual Line: (+3.5) again, we are on the same page, but not the oddsmakers. Didn’t they just get butt whooped at home last week.

Wow, Seattle is getting love again. I know they have a good home field advantage, but they are 2-8 with losses of 24, 3 (SF), 38, 10, 10, 19, 2, 6. They beat SF and St Louis. Meanwhile, Washington has lost 3 of 5 since they were considered a top three team. This is a must win for Washington, and they are definitely the better team. They have to get their offense together, and this seems like the place to do so. There is a chance that Hasselbeck finds his groove in his second game back and they get something going, but I would not count on it vs a good defense.

Redskins -3.5

I don't get the Seattle love this year. They had a great record at home, but they were also a pretty good team. That also plays a role. It doesn't matter where you play, if your team sucks, you're going to lose. Washington still scares me, but I think they're way better than the Seahawks.

Redskins -3.5

Chicago @ St Louis (+13) Will it be this high? If Orton is back, probably. I was way off from you. I said +3. Watch.

Actual Line: (+8.5) we were equally off, but is this line with or without Orton?

Orton played last week, so I will assume he plays again this week. Does it matter? Shouldn’t Forte run free all game? Can the St Louis offense that looks like crap doing anything against the Bears. They won’t be able to run. I now that Bulger is capable and he has capable receivers, but nothing you would expect to be good about the Rams ever seems to be good. I don’t know, considering I thought the line would be 4.5 points higher, I have to go with it. I’m still not sure about the Bears, but the Rams continue to prove me wrong when I think they should be better.

Bears -8.5

After the Rams hung around with the Patriots, I thought they'd be competitive, but I was wrong. They went into New York and got beat by 86 points. The Bears haven't really been particularly impressive. Here's my question: if Devin Hester was so good at returning punts and he kinda sucks at receiver, why not have him line up 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage and throw a pop up to him and have him work his magic?

Bears -8.5

Buffalo @ Kansas City (+3) I don’t know, NO was in the dumps and got 4.5 last week, does Buffalo get the same? Will they win? Week five, this probably would have been 14. I think this should be about +1. Both teams aren't very good. You may be right though.

Actual Line: (+3)

Gotta love the 3 point lines. KC could win, but I said that last week too. The Bills just can’t win any more and the guy that ripped me for doubting the bills at the beginning of the season suddenly feels less sure of himself. The problem I have with this is that all the Bills have to do is hand off the ball and Lynch should win the game with a little help from the defense, but that didn’t seem to work at home last week. The KC offense actually looks ok this days too. I think the Bills win the time of possession battle here, but the way they are going its hard to predict a win. KC is improving, and Buffalo is regressing, but I think they are the better team. Lynch is the difference here, they aren’t going to lose the rest of their games, and this is one they SHOULD win. Although, the more I think about it, the Buffalo defense is banged up and not helping out. The way this season goes, home dogs are winning.

Chiefs +3

Should win is the operative term here. I've been betting (and mostly losing) on Kansas City, but they keep the games and gambling interesting. The Bills haven't impressed me yet this year because they don't beat anyone good. Edwards is overrated, Lynch may be the ugliest player in the league, and their only good defender is Pozluzny. I'm taking the points.

Kansas City +3

Tampa Bay @ Detroit (+10.5) That’s generous. I said +13 here. Detroit is bad. And you are definitely being generous.

Actual Line: (+8.5) Wow

I keep finding myself behind all the favorites and sucking every week, but seriously, how is Tampa only giving 8.5? I guess the Lions have kept it close…wow, I was expecting to find last week to be the only close loss, but they have lost by less then 9 5 of their last 6 games. Granted they got blown out in one of the two Culpepper games, and I wouldn’t trust him to hold my ipod, but maybe we are on to something here. They don’t win, but do they lose by less then 9? The Bucs biggest road win of the year was by 6. Lets go for it.

Lions +8.5

That line is amazing. Culpepper did keep the game close last week against the Panthers, but can the Lions count on him two weeks in a row? We're talking about the Lions here. I do feel like this is a little bit of a trap game. We say "wow only 8.5, I'm taking the Bucs and collecting." I gotta go with the idea that the oddsmakers know more than I do.

Lions +8.5

San Francisco @ Dallas (-6) And Dallas destroys them, I bet they get on a roll after this one. I started at six, but moved it to 7.5. Not too far off, but I may be giving the Cowboys too much love.

Actual Line: (-10) or maybe not

You’d think being 4 points off the line would deter me. Well it won’t, like I said, Dallas gets an old fashion blow out here. This game should be over by halftime. I wouldn’t be surprised if SF gets some back in the second half keeps it respectable, but I can’t expect that to happen. Dallas has a chip on their shoulder and they start coming together this week after squeaking one out last week. Then again, the Niners are a much better team with Sean Hill running the show, but I still can’t buy it.

Cowboys -10

Agreed. I was a little closer with my 7.5 and I still think ten might be too much, but the Cowboys should be a lot better than the 49ers. The 49ers get a lot of their wins from the division, which isn't saying much. It's like someone saying, "I get laid all the time" and the other person responding, "yea, but with slam pigs."

Cowboys -10

Bottom games

2008-11-15T08:49:00.001-08:00

Welcome to week 11! Oz is in blue, Clay in black.

So I got through the top 10 games and then I got stuck. The last 6 games were all so equally bad, I could not decide which one could possibly be better then the other. Since I don't believe any of them should be better then last, they are all tied for 16th.

I think it's perfectly okay to list these games all as #16.

16. Oakland @ Miami (-10.5) Higher than I thought it would be here. I guess I still think too highly of Oakland. However, besides the New England game, the Dolphins haven't blown anyone out and we're talking about teams that aren't very good (San Diego, Buffalo, Seattle, Denver). I gotta go with the points here.

Oakland +10.5

I hate that the Chargers are in that not very good category and I can’t even argue. I think I am the opposite. I am very down on Oakland, the defense isn’t doing much and the offense is horrendous. I doubt anyone on the team cares based on their suckiness (yeah, I said it) and their recent cut of their “best player”. Meanwhile I have been a bit too high on Miami. They have a solid defense and an offense that is pretty average. They have trouble moving the ball sometimes, but can Oakland stop them? I thought they should have torn through Seattle, that was disappointing. Carolina covered this spread last week in Oakland with Delhomme throwing for 57 yards and 4 interceptions. I don’t think Pennington does that. Oakland will not win another game this year, and I think they started getting rolled every week…I guess continue to.

Dolphins -10.5

16. Philadelphia @ Cincinatti (+9) I was half a point off here with my guess (-9.5). The points don't really matter much to me here, as I think everyone saw that the Eagles are one of the better teams in the league even though they might not make the playoffs. Imagine that? There are, as of now, seven teams ahead of them.

Philly -9

I plan to continue with this beat up on crappy teams and lose to good teams theory. Philly beats up on this craptastic club. Wow, I guessed 13 here, what does that tell you about my thoughts on this line. By the way, you guessed 3.5 for the Dolphins line, apparently you do overrate them.

Eagles -9

16. New Orleans @ Kansas City (+5.5) It was you who was a half point off here. Good guess. Kansas City has played pretty well in the last few weeks even though they've lost five in a row. That's weird to say. This team is 1-8 and they're playing well? The Saints, meanwhile, are the only team capable of losing a game in which your QB throws for 422 yards. Still don't know if Bush is going to play either. I hate to say this, but I'm going with the Chiefs (which may change come Sunday).

Kansas City +5.5

I agree with you for now. I may also change this, but the Chiefs have looked decent in their last three losses. Does that mean they are due for a win, no, but it means they will probably stay close with a team that plays no defense. The Chiefs defense has been playing better, but I don’t see them holding down the Saints offense. Bush or no Bush, the Saints should rack up a lot of yards on the ground. This could be over at halftime, but I think the Chiefs keep playing with heart, especially at home.

Chiefs +5.5

16. Detroit @ Carolina (-14) We both nailed this one at -14. Seems about right. Seems about a good bet, too. Nothing like playing Detroit to make you forget about last week, huh Delhomme?

Carolina -14

Seriously, you know how they kept shooting up the Patriots lines last year but it didn’t matter how high they went, we were all still betting on them? Well its like the bizaro Patriots of 08. The Lions just lost at home to a seriously struggling Jags team 38-14. Is there any reason to expect less then 200 yards on the ground and 500 total yards from Carolina? How many picks does Culpepper throw, and is this offense really better with him on the field then Kitna?

Carolina -14

16. St Louis @ San Francisco (-6) This line has to be reflective of what kind of game happened on Monday, huh? There is not one good game in the NFC west. We can't say, "well, if so-and-so matches up against so-and-so, it'll be a good game." No. It'll never be a good game with this division. Don't bother me about Monday, it was a fluke. I didn't even watch it.

San Francisco -6

I got on the St Louis bandwagon too late and have stayed on too long. They looked like the worst team in the league last week and SF barely lost to their division leader on the road. You are right about this line being a product of last week. So shouldn’t we go the opposite way? Is St Louis finally going to cover again the week I decide to give up on them? Can SF play defense? St Louis sure can’t. I hate this game. Here is what I said when we guessed this line “(this depends too much on tonights game but a wild guess, -3 sounds good, haha)” the line probably changed three points based on that game. I am definitely going to waffle all week on this one.

Niners -6

16. Arizona @ Seattle (+3) What did I say? Not ONE good game in this division. Arizona should kill the Seahawks. By the way, I nailed this line.

Arizona -3

No, there will never be a good game because there is one good team and three terrible terrible terrible teams. I thought you were way off on this line, I had 7.5 (of course that was before the almost lost to SF at home). Seattle is overrated after beating up on SF and losing close to Miami. I still don’t buy Seattle. They may keep this close and they may pull the upset in a good stadium for that, but I can’t bet on them to do so. Arizona is a better team, Seattle will probably be worse with Hasselbeck who hasn’t played in a long time.

Cardinals -3

10-4

2008-11-15T08:46:00.001-08:00

Both Oz and Clay are astonished that the Falcons rookie Matt Ryan has taken Atlanta from being a terrible team to a semi-watchable one. Clay in black, Oz in blue.

10. Cleveland @ Buffalo (-5) Yes, this is the tenth best game of the week.

That's a sign the apocalypse is upon us. Going into this year, I'd say this would be higher up, too. I like the way Cleveland is playing. On the other end, I have seen Buffalo a bunch of times this season and I want to say they're good, but I can't. Everyone got on their nuts when they started 4-0, but look at the teams they've beaten (Seattle, Jacksonville, San Diego, Oakland, and St. Louis ... yes, I've called San Diego bad twice already). The Bills aren't good. (Neither are the Browns, but they're better than the Bills)

Cleveland +5

Well I already used this one on you twice too, the Chargers my not be very good, but they beat the snot out of the Patriots and the Jets, your top two teams in the AFC East. Neither of these teams are good. I don’t know what to expect from the Bills these days, except boring crappy football. The Browns had a little fight last Thursday, but can they bring that on the road? Apparently someone in the Browns locker room commented that some of the guys are quiting on the team. That is not what you want to hear before a meaningless road game with a shitty coach and a rookie (I call a QB in his first year as a starter a rookie, is this ok?) QB.

Bills -5

9. Houston @ Indianapolis (-8.5) You were closer here on the line. I thought it'd be a little higher, but given Indy's inconsistency, you'd think they'll struggle with Houston ... ummm, oh wait. Remember the Texans blew a 17 point fourth quarter lead against this team? You don't think the Colts absolutely have this team's number? At home? Coming off two huge wins (granted they came off the other team beating themselves, hmm, which come to think of it is how the Colts win ALL their games)?

Indy -8.5

I really want to take Houston here because I feel like they always play Indy tough, but I see they have only beaten them once. The Texan’s defense isn’t stopping anyone, and after their showing last week at home, I can’t in my right mind take them with less then ten on the road. Indy may be coming into their own, and they may be dangerous down the stretch, which is not good for my Chargers in a game they really need next week. My heart says take Houston, but my brain tells me they haven’t a shot.

Colts -8.5

8. Tennessee @ Jacksonville (+3) Only three again, huh?

Yea, that's ludicrous. The Titans. 10-0, huh? Good for them. Perfection is not easy.

Tennessee -3

I love the Titans, they get no love, well they do from me. The only week I didn’t bet on them was Green Bay, when they didn’t cover. I think I keep riding this train. Jacksonville can’t turn crap into gold with one blowout over the worst team in the Big Ten, your Detroit Lions (really, they would probably lose to Penn St and Ohio St, no?).

Titans -3

7. Denver @ Atlanta (-6.5) I wanted to rank this higher because I think it will be fun to watch.

Atlanta has become a team that's fun to watch. It's been great seeing how well Matt Ryan has played in his rookie season. I thought it'd take a while for him to come along, but he's adjusted very nicely. The Falcons play stout defense, they can run the shit out of the ball, and Ryan is capable of putting up points through the air. They could win the NFC South (they won't).

Atlanta -6.5

You’re right, they won’t but that NFC South has turned out to be a very good, exciting conference, who’d of thought. The Broncos are tough to bet on. In Denver I love taking the points when they are favored by three or more. They aren’t going to stop the Falcons, but can the Falcons stop the Broncos? I think this is a shootout and the winner of the game is the last with the ball. At the very least, can’t you see the Broncos down 13, and scoring a worthless TD on a 2 minute drive to end the game and cover? I love picking the Broncos every week and being happy whether they win or lose.

Broncos +6.5

6. Minnesota @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) Tampa is good at home and the Vikings cost me winning my five-team parlay last week. Well, they didn't cost me shit. Green Bay did, but the Vikings didn't help. You know who has really helped the Vikings? Sidney Rice. At least it gives Frerotte another guy to throw to. This way, opponents can't stack the line and double-cover Berrian. He's opened up this offense nicely. That said, Tampa might be too good at home.

Tampa Bay -3.5

Tampa Bay is very good at home. These NFC South teams are all tough at home, and Minnesota didn’t sell me with that win last week. I still think their pass defense is too shitty to support a one dimensional offense. You are right that the pass offense is better with Rice, and Ferotte for that matter, but he is still Gus Ferotte, and this is a very good Tampa defense. I like the Bucs at home and hate them on the road.

Bucs -3.5

The #4 game was the Jets (+3) over the Patriots. Clay correctly picked the outcome. Oz? Not so much.

Top four games

2008-11-15T08:44:00.000-08:00

Clay is in black this week, Oz in blue.

4. Dallas @ Washington (+1.5) I don't like the Skins here without Portis. I don't really like Dallas either, but I think they'll be a little better with Romo playing. This is always a tough division to pick because, really, any team can beat the other. Well, except the Giants.

Dallas -1.5

I don’t know what to think here. Dallas was favored by double digits at home last time. The Washington offense looks like crap again, and Portis isn’t healthy. Romo is going to be back, but will he be rusty. The Cowboys need this game big time, but Washington needs to get back on track too. This is a huge game between big rivals that seem to play each other tough no matter where each team stands at the time. If Brad Johnson hadn’t been so terrible, Romo would probably be taking this week off too. Damn, this is a shot in the dark for me. Washington won on the road last time and Romo was healthy, and they get no respect at home.

Skins +1.5

3. Baltimore @ New York Giants (-6.5) I'm not picking against the Giants again this season until the prove me wrong that they're the best team in the league. Should be a great game here. Lots of hitting. It'd be interesting to see the Giants runningbacks against the Raven defense. I remember I used to hate watching the Giants play (this was up until this year actually). Now they're fun to watch. I'm going to go hammer a nail through my hand now.

Giants -6.5

I think this game is rated too high, but there aren’t too many interesting matchups this week. I get bored thinking about this game, then again, the Giants have been fun to watch and the Ravens have been putting up points too. I still haven’t gotten on the Ravens wagon, but they have an awesome run D, and its about time to give Flacco some respect. The Giants are playing just about the best football, and I think they give Flacco some trouble. Eli is going to have to get it done on offense, and the Ravens could definitely force some mistakes here. I almost want to take Baltimore because I don’t know if the Giants can run on them and I don’t trust Eli, but the Giants just look really good here, and I don’t think the Ravens are a contender, so why would they take it to the defending champs in New York?

Giants -6.5

2. San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-4.5) reat game for #2. Yes, I'm being sarcastic. I guess knowing what we know now, the Pats-Jets would probably be #1, but that's all I'm going to say about that game. Anyway, I'm pretty sure the Steelers are better than the Chargers, but at the same time, San Diego typically only plays well against good teams. I'll go with my gut here. Do the Chargers miss Michael Turner? You know, since the best back in the NFL can only play on first and second down? (That's crap, by the way)

Pittsburgh -4.5

Pays to be the guy that ranks the game. Can the Chargers turn it around? The Chargers biggest weakness has been their pass rush and the Steelers biggest weakness has been their pass protection. I truly believe that if the Chargers woke up and could put pressure on QBs, all their problems would be solved. The secondary is good, but no one can cover receivers for five minutes and that is what’s happening. A couple of sacks, and some rushed throws and you start creating more turnovers and less wide open receivers. It really is that simple, so maybe this is the game for the defense to get some momentum. Then again, maybe Roethlisburger picks them apart and their number one defense picks off Rivers in the end zone like he seems to do every week.

Steelers -4.5

1. Chicago @ Green Bay (-3 that is a guess, no line yet) I told you that I got really drunk watching the game last night. When I asked you for advice, you suggested I just start to drink again. I really like your attitude, Clay. Have I ever told you that? Now, per your advice, I'm having a Bud and my headache is quickly disappearing. God bless this country. I wouldn't be able to do this in Iraq. Speaking of which, since we have a socialist president now, do I have to give away my beer too? I mean, I know I have to share, ooops, redistribute, my money. What about my beer? How does this work?

Chicago +3

That depends on how much beer you have. If you have over 200 beers then you will have to share, otherwise you are good.

I think the line actually came out at 3.5, but we will stick with this because I like it more. I don’t know if Orton is playing or not, if Rex is playing the Pack should dominate, and I will change them to my starting defense instead of the Giants, maybe I should anyway? I don’t know, I still like the Packsers and I still don’t like the Bears. The Bears have something like the 30^th ranked pass defense in the league. Don’t you think the Packers will take advantage of that? Can Forte beat the Packers? Maybe. Personally, I am probably staying away from this one unless Rex is starting. If he is in there I would take the Pack -9.

Packers -3

Top picks

2008-11-08T11:25:00.000-08:00

Just Clay this week on the analysis. Oz will return next week. His picks are in blue.

7. Baltimore @ Houston (pk)

Houston pk

I’m not sure about Houston. I’d like them better if Schaub wasn’t hurt, and Sage hadn’t handed over a game in his last game. Baltimore may be legit, I haven’t quite bought into them yet, but they are probably better then Houston. This is a good matchup for them (especially without Schaub) because they shouldn’t have too much trouble with the Houston offense and shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball either. I like Baltimore to win this one.

Ravens pick

6. Buffalo @ New England (-4)

New England -4

The NFL is tough to figure this year. I think the Patriots are one of the worst teams in the league sometimes and others they look like a semi-contender. I still don’t think they are good because their offense isn’t explosive enough and their defense isn’t dominant enough. The Bills have trouble running the ball sometimes, and Edwards isn’t good enough to carry the team. My gut tells me that this is an ugly, close game and I can trade a field goal for a touchdown and still push, so I will take the points.

Bills +4

5. Green Bay @ Minnesota (-2.5)

Green Bay +2.5

I don’t think Minnesota is good. I think the Packers are a contender and will pull away in the division (depending on Kyle Orton’s health). I flat out think the Packers are better. Their offense and defense are both more well rounded than the one dimensional Vikings.

Packers +2.5

4. New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1)

New Orleans +1

Talk about an over game. Both offenses are very good and both defenses are very good. I am totally impressed with Matt Ryan, and I think everyone has a field day. I think the Saints are a bit better on offense, and I like the extra rest/planning, so I am going to take the road team off the bye. I sometimes take too much stock in the bye week, but in this case it is pretty even otherwise.

Saints +1

3. Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh (no line yet, I’ll guess -4)

Pittsburgh -4

Indy is boring. I guess the Steelers are too. Is Roethisburger healthy? Does it matter? I don’t know what to say here except that I think Pitt is a better team and they are at home were they are always dangerous. There is still no line because of Roethlisburger, but 4 sounds good. Another trade of a TD for field goal and a nice win for Pitt. It should be close, but I don’t trust Indy, they don’t have it.

Steelers -4ish

2. Tennessee @ Chicago (+3)

Chicago +3

I hear Orton may actually be playing this week. If Rex is playing, I love the Titans. If Orton is playing (and in good shape to do so) then it could be a very interesting game. Tennessee almost got beat by Baltimore because their offense isn’t great and a good defense will give them trouble. Chicago could do that to Tennessee, and if they win the turnover battle, could come out victorious. When Rex Grossman is your Qb, though, you don’t win the turnover battle. For now, I assume Rex is the QB, I assume Tenn wins the TO battle, and I have to take the most consistent team in the league giving 3 points against a team I think is just above average.

Titans -3

1. New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-3)

NYG +3

Bill Simmons pointed out that the Eagles are great against shitty teams, and the eff up against good teams. The Giants are good, and they are playing still like they have something to prove. With a coach and QB notorious for screwing up in the clutch, I have to take the defending champs. The Giants look better then everyone else out there, and I won’t give up points on them against anybody anywhere.

Giants +3

Week 9 picks

2008-11-08T11:20:00.000-08:00

Brett Favre still wears Wrangler jeans ... and Clay and Oz both know someone who is turned on by this picture. He's not even gay.

Just Clay with the analysis this week; Oz will be back next week for the picks. His picks are in blue.

13. Jacksonville @ Detroit (+6.5)

Jacksonville -6.5

Detroit has the worst run D in the league, so I think Jacksonville should finally get something done on offense. Meanwhile, the Lions traded Orlovsky for Dante Culpepper, who was never really good, and now he is old. He was the worst QB in the league last year, and I don’t think a little extra time off will help. Jacksonville gets a much needed blowout here.

Jags -6.5

12. Seattle @ Miami (-8)

Miami -8

Seattle still doesn’t have Hasselbeck back, and they can’t seem to do much of anything well. They have never been good on the road, and Miami is quietly one of the better teams in the NFL. I don’t think this is close after the first quarter.

Miami -8

11. Carolina @ Oakland (+9.5)

Oakland +9.5

At first I was thinking this was too many points. I love taking Oakland at home as a big dog because even when losing they usually keep it close. Not this team. They seem to be giving up and have been blown out two straight weeks. Now they drop their big off season free agent, much to the surprise of the rest of the team “I don’t know why the would cut our best player.” Do you think they have any motivation to be good right now? I don’t and Carolina is damn good at home.

Panthers -9.5

10. Kansas City @ San Diego (-15)

Kansas City +15

This one is tough. As a Chargers fan I expect the team to come out of the bye fiery. They have a new, proven Defensive Coordinator and LT should be in good shape after a long rest against a terrible, terrible run defense. KC on the other hand has shown some life the last couple of weeks, still trying even though they are really bad. Those were both at home, though. Can the Chargers win by three scores? They are more than capable of it. Under Marty, they don’t cover this. The way I see it, if the defense plays really well, then we blow them out, right? If they play poorly, then the offense never shuts down to prevent a comeback and they run up the score. Either way, it’s a blowout against a team with a shitty offense and a shitty defense.

Chargers -15

9. San Francisco @ Arizona (-9.5)

Arizona -9.5 ... this is an over game, huh?

Yes, especially the Arizona team total. San Francisco is not good, and Arizona is looking like a division winner. I don’t think it is ever close here, sorry but I am all favorites so far.

Cardinals -9.5

8. St Louis @ NYJ (-9)

St. Louis +9

Until now. I think the Jets are over rated. They will not win the AFC East, and they will not make the playoffs. Their offense struggles to move the ball too often, and their pass defense is a liability. They got a good win on the road last week, but that was against another overrated team. If the Rams can get the ball moving in the air they have a great shot at winning this won, let alone keeping in under double digits. I am betting against the Jets here more than on the rams (who I still think is a decent team).

Rams +9

Top Picks

2008-11-02T07:51:00.000-08:00

To some people (Clay), drinking before work seems to be acceptable.
Clay is in blue, Oz is in black.

4. Dallas @ NYG(-9):
Man, who'd have seen this coming last month. Giants should be up for this one and would love to blow out the Cowboys. By the time Romo comes back, they could be out of it already. The O line has been terrible for Dallas, and the Giants have probably the best pass rush in the league. I honestly think the Giants rip through Dallas. The Cowboys aren't doing much of anything well lately. They played good d last week, but Eli can throw deep, so they can't play the same defense. Giants -9

You're right about not being able to see this coming. To be truthful, I was expecting the Giants to struggle this year after their championship rings came in. They've proved me wrong. They're the best team in the league. The Cowboys might be in trouble, especially since the NFC is the tougher of the two divisions.

Giants -9

3. Pittsburgh @ Washington(-1.5):
Washington is a tough team to figure out. They are good, but I have trouble buying into them as a top tier team. They won at Dallas and at Philly. They are home most of the remaining sched. The problem I see washington running into is good defenses because their offense isn't explosive enough. This could be a very low scoring game with both defenses dominating. The thing is, you stop PItt with a good pass rush and Washington doesnt usually win that way. Steelers +1.5

This is a tough week for the Redskins. They could win this game, but I don't think they're on the Steelers level, at least physically. Pittsburgh hits hard, this game could be a slugfest. It should be a good game. Seems like an odd line to me.

Steelers +1.5

2. Green Bay @ Tennessee(-5.5):
I have been riding Tennessee for over a month now and it has been fun. I am getting off on this stop, though. They are coming off of a tough battle on Monday night and get a rested Green Bay team that has spent two weeks trying to figure out how to win this game. I think the Packers are the better then any team Tenn has faced thus far, and the should give the running game a challenge. Tenn could definitely win this one, but i like this being a low scoring close game, and I honestly think GB comes out ahead. Packers +5.5

I've been the opposite. Haven't bought into it until the Monday night game against Indianapolis. This is a classic letdown game that I won't let myself be talked into. Tennessee is better than Green Bay.

Tennessee -5.5

1. New England @ Indianapolis(-5.5):
Ahaaaaaa. This is interesting, hard to pick a winner here. I don't totally understand either team. The Pats are so inconsistent, and I dont know what they really do well. They rush the passer well, and Indy has had some trouble with that. New England is susceptible in the secondary, but Indy hasn't been doing much on offense, especially if they can get to Peyton. I think Indy gets Bob Sanders back this week so the backup running backs lose a bit of the edge. I have to admit I think the Patriots aren't good. Would I be surprised if New England won this game, no. Would I be suprised if Indy won by 24, no. Do I think both of these coaches would run up the score, yes. Indianapolis -5.5

Expect a shoot-out. I'm terrified of this game. I don't think the Colts are better than the Patriots. I can't pick against Belichick.

New England +5.5
I think I have a problem. I just finished and then made another bloody mary to go. Is that bad? It's 930 and I am drinking my second bloody mary, which has to be at least 50-50 or you end up just drinking tomato juice, on my way to beach day at work.

Picks 14-5

2008-11-02T07:47:00.000-08:00

Say what you want about Jeff Garcia's voice, but this is his wife.

OZ is in black, Clay is is blue ...

14. Detroit @ Chicago(-13):

Next time I do this, I should try to guess the lines. I was thinking this was a two score spread. There's been talk for a couple years about how parody in the NFL will prevent a team from going undefeated and, along the same lines, prevent a team from going winless. I'm pretty convinced this Lions team has a shot. They almost seem as if they've packed it in. They're a terrible football team. It's a six hour drive from Detroit to Chicago. I'm positive it's not really worth it to travel.

(Come to think of it, they wouldn't take the bus (it's an hour plane right), but it really makes no sense. You get to the airport, I'm assuming players have to get checked even if it isn't in the long lines, then they board, wait for clearance then fly. Land, get off the plane, get luggage. We're talking a four hour trip anyway, no?)

CHICAGO -13

Yes, waste of time. No way they get anything going on offense and the Bears offense is good enough to tear apart this terrible defense. Coming off of a bye, they won’t be looking past this game. Blowout city.

Bears -13

13. Tampa Bay @ Kansas City(+8.5):

Even though it's funny to make "Garcia is gay" jokes, we can't front on his hot wife. She was playmate of the year and had our buddy Horse in a trance for about five months. The Buccaneers showed a little trouble with the Cowboys, but then again, the Cowboys are a good team. They aren't as good on the road as they are at home, and the Chiefs are excellent at Arrowhead. I, however, have been burned too many times betting against this team.

Tampa Bay -8.5

Yeah, Tampa is a tough team to bet on. One week they make you feel stupid for betting on them and the next it’s the other way around. I can’t ever bet on KC, though they do seem to be trying still. Tampa blew the big spread against Seattle a couple weeks ago, but they only need to win by 10 here. No reason they shouldn’t.

Bucs -8.5

12. Jacksonville @ Cincinnati(+7.5):

I have no idea what's up with Jacksonville. In the preseason preview, I wrote, "They're terrific defensively and apparently they can score, but they've never actually impressed me. I've never said to myself, "wow, Jacksonville is GOOD!" You were buying into it. Do I think they can blow out the second worst team in the NFL? Of course I do. Would I put any money on that happening? No way. I have no idea what to expect. If I lose, I lose.

Jacksonville -7.5

Speaking of mailing it in, the Bengals are terrible, you finally dropped Palmer from your team this week, and I wouldn’t care if Jacksonville was coming off a loss to Detroit, they should roll over the Bengals. I don’t even know what to say here. The Bengals suck on offense and defense, and the Jags are average at both these days.

Jags -7.5

11. Philadelphia @ Seattle(+6.5): I hate the NFC West. This is ranked low not because I hate the Eagles and think they suck but because I don't think this will be much of a game. I don’t buy Seattle after that win either.

After a 4-3 start (the three losses coming by a combined 14 points), there are a lot of people off the Eagles bandwagon, which might suit them. Of their last nine games, just three of them are against quality opponents (twice against the Giants, and @ Washington). This could be a dangerous team if they get on a roll heading into the postseason, which they will make.

Philly -6.5

Man, all favorites so far in a year where dogs continue to pull upsets. Home teams appear to be doing very well too. I am not buying into Seattle after a good week. They still have Seneca Wallace under center, and Philly is too good even for Andy Reid to blow this spread.

Eagles -6.5

10. Arizona @ St. Louis(+3):

I'm so happy I don't live in an area where this game would be aired, though. For every sick Larry Fitzgerald catch, there's ten plays when you realize you're watching the Cardinals. The Pats may have taken the wind out of the Rams sails last week. I hate taking road teams with lines like this. Apparently the oddsmakers think it'll be close.

Arizona -3

Yeah, this is an interesting line. I too think it will be close, though. Arizona hasn’t shown they can win on the road, and I don’t think St Louis got those wins by getting hot, I think they are a decent team, although Stephen Jackson screwed my pick last week by surprising me, and he could do the same this week. Arizona is improved on defense, but still not real formidable. With SJ, I like the Rams, without I would probably take them at gunpoint, but would rather leave it alone.

This reminds me, last week I had a four team ML parlay, all dogs to win outright. It paid out just over 50 to 1, and for a while it looked like it might happen. TB, St Louis, Miami and New Orleans; two of the four one, and the other two were winning or tied for the majority of the game. Lat scores by both favorites ruined me.

Rams +3

9. Miami @ Denver(-3):

No. There may not be a good team in the AFC West would you ever think the AFC East would be more competitive than the AFC West? The Dolphins are a lot better than the Broncos, even at Mile High.

Miami +3

I have trouble saying they are a lot better in Denver. Miami is pretty solid, they aren’t shitty at anything but they aren’t really spectacular at anything. I am wondering if they just surprised a couple of teams in a row. I think the Denver offense gets back on track this week, but Miami and the oh so popular lately Wildcat offense should have no trouble. Lots of points, and I have enjoyed taking dogs against Denver when getting 3 or more because I figure the visitors can always score easily at the end of the game to keep it close. Can Miami do that? Eh, I am not sure, but I’ll stick with the dog against Denver theory since it has worked thus far.

Miami +3

8. Atlanta @ Oakland(+3):

Imagine being a fan of either of these teams? At least I'd be more hopeful if I was a Falcon fan. Matt Ryan is going to be a good quarterback in this league. And who would have thought Michael Turner could carry the load?

Atlanta -3

I would definitely be happy as a Falcons fan right now, especially after last year. Who’d of thought Matt Ryan and Michael Turner would get this offense going right away. Atlanta is better, right? Neither team is great, but like I say every week, Atlanta is one of the better average teams. They won’t win games against the top tier, but they have enough eggs on their schedule they should finish around or above .500. Not so much for the Raiders and McFadden’s two turf toes. Really, he has turf toe on both feet? Who does that?

Falcons -3

7. NYJ @ Buffalo(-5.5):

I agree that the Jets are overrated. The Bills have been under the radar recently (loss @ Arizona, bye, win vs. San Diego, loss @ Miami), but they are 5-2. They get to play at Ralph Wilson again. This should be an interesting game, but the Bills should win.

BUFFALO -5.5

I think the Jets suck. I think the Bills are pretty good. They didn’t play especially well in the SD game, but they won, and that’s all that matters. That is kind of what I think this team does, it is what I expected going into the year. Not pretty, but solid. The Jets on the other hand stop the run, and could have a solid offense if Favre threw the ball to the green dressed guys more. You ‘d think he could handle this, he didn’t even have to change uniform colors. The Jets still seem to like running the ball more, because no one trust Favre. I don’t know what else to say, Jets are bad, Bills are better then average (which says a lot in a very average year).

Bills -5.5

6. Houston @ Minnesota(-4.5):

I'm reading this book called "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell right now and it's all about the importance of instantaneous reactions, and, while sometimes we don't know why we have a hunch, we can't ignore them. This is a great example of this idea.

Houston +4.5

Nice tie in there. I like Houston too, and Minnesota doesn’t seem to be doing anything right this year. Shaub and AP should both have good games, but this is too many points I think for a team that hasn’t really been good all year (although they beat me on Carolina earlier in the year).

Houston +4.5

5. Baltimore @ Cleveland(-1.5):

My mistake, they've won three of four games. They lost at Washington, but beat the Giants and won @ Jacksonville. I like this match-up for the Browns.

CLEVELAND -1.5

I like this matchup too, I don’t trust Flacco, and the Ravens have taken advantage of bad teams to get where they are. This is a great opportunity for the Browns. I like them to shut down the Ravens offense, and get enough going behind Anderson to win this one.

Browns -1.5

Week 8

2008-10-26T07:38:00.000-07:00

Oz (in black) thinks you should bet on the guy who is "6'5 rocket, laser arm." Clay (in blue) thinks differently.

7. St Louis @ New England (-7):

The oddsmakers make it hard for the Patriots, but the Pats don't really make it easy on gamblers either. St. Louis is playing pretty well in the last three weeks, and the Patriots are wildly inconsistant. Did anyone expect a 41-7 win over the Broncos? I sure didn't. Now Brady has had surgery four times and that's not really okay. But Matt Cassel won offensive player of the week. WHAT?! The world is going mad.

New England -7

Yeah, it is hard to predict what either of these teams will do. I am buying into this Rams team right now, though, because I thought before the season that they would be good. I attributed a lot of their problems from last year to injuries. I was wrong from the start, but because of that, I am not ready to call those wins flukes. I think they are competitive for the rest of the year, and I guess in their division, that means they still have a shot. I wouldn’t be surprised if either team blew the other out, but given that I think the Rams could win this outright, I have to take a full touchdown.

Rams +7

6. Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-9):

I believe Westbrook is returning this weekend meaning my fantasy team will still lose but not by as much. Atlanta isn't a bad team. The Eagles are good at giving quarterbacks fits (watch: the game with the Patriots last year), which I expect to happen this weekend against Matt Ryan. Ryan is a good quarterback, but he won't be able to do much against this defense.

Philly -9

I don’t know, Matt Ryan hasn’t been sacked very many times this year, and he has shown he can play well under pressure. Teams off of a bye are always scary, and the Atlanta defense is not scary, which leads to believe the Eagles will score a lot. The Eagles defense is one of those that either completely shuts you down, or doesn’t do anything to stop you. I am done referring to Matt Ryan as a rookie QB because I think he is legit. I think Philly gets up early and Ryan can’t do it all himself when they have to abandon the run game. I want to take the points, but I think the defense lets them down.

Philly -9

5. Tampa Bay @ Dallas (no line yet):

Tampa has been playing great as of late. I've bet against them twice in the past two weekends and lost, so there's no way I'm going against them right now. The Cowboys look like they're in a little bit of trouble. The Bucs defense is good enough to keep the Cowboys honest and their offense has been running smoothly. Without the spread listed, I'll take the bucs money line.

Tampa Bay (ML)

I can’t get behind the cowboys right now…does that sound homoerotic? Brad Johnson looked terrible last week, and one would think a week as the starter in practice should help, he isn’t that bad, right? The problem is that Tampa is pretty good, they play solid D and the offense has been more productive then expected. Dallas has had a terrible pass defense, so it isn’t a stretch to expect the Bucs to score some points her and win on the road. The ‘boys are in trouble, they could be screwed by the time Romo is back.

Tampa Bay +2

4. Arizona @ Carolina (-4.5): The Cardinals need to win on the road if they want some respect, Carolina will be a tough place to do that.

After getting their ass kicked, I feel like Carolina needs to prove something. Arizona can't stop a team that's physical and that's what the Panthers are. A few three and outs by the Cardinals offense will be a catalyst to Carolina controlling the clock. I need Fitzgerald to have a big game, but i'm not sure he can do enough to win this game for them.

Carolina -4.5

I don’t know what you are watching, but the Panthers beat the crap out of New Orleans last week. Another big offense, can the Panthers do it again. Arizona is actually 9^th against the run this year, so the Panthers will likely have to do a bit more to score against a somewhat improved defense. I think the Panthers are too good at home, the Cardinals haven’t shown anything on the road yet, and Carolina is a more balanced offense and defense. Considering the season we have had, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona wins outright. No two weeks are the same in the NFL this year.

Panthers -4.5

3. New York Giants @ Pittsburgh (-3.5): I am a little surprised they are giving three, a bye helps. I am interested to see what happens here. I think it will mostly be defense.

I know Pittsburgh is 5-1 but I'm not buying into it yet. This would be a three-point spread for whatever team is at home. The Giants look unstoppable running the ball right now and that sets up the passing game for Manning. If the Giants win this game big, which I'm expecting them to do, does that put them #1 in the power rankings? For me, yes.

New York +3.5

The Steelers should look good off of the bye, they usually do, but their O line has been a problem, and that is looking right into the Giant’s strength. I actually picked up the Giants defense this week as a fill in, because I think they get to “Ben” a lot. The Giants will struggle with consistency all year, especially against inferior opponents, but I think they are flat out better then the Steelers. Would I be surprised if the Steelers won, of course not, but I have to take the points with the team that I think should win straight up, and no, a win should put them at #2 behind the undefeated Titans who are going to….I guess I am getting ahead of myself.

Giants +3.5

2. San Diego @ New Orleans @ London (+3):

Take the under in this one. Seriously. It'll be high, but both teams are in friggin London. Should be a dreadful game actually.

San Diego -3

I totally agree. The total is set at 45, definitely lower because it is in London. I was reading today that LT met with the coaches and says they need to run the ball more. If he is going to be playing, he needs the ball. The Chargers are 28^th in the league in time of possession, because when they score, it is fast, and the defense sucks. They need to start controlling the clock like they used to, and this is definitely going to be a game where the best running team wins. Deuce should have a nice day, but I have to think without Reggie in the rain, the Saints won’t be as dynamic. LT gets the ball, Chargers control the clock for the first time all year, and come back to the States with a win.

Chargers -3

1. Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-4):

This game would virtually eliminate the Colts from winning their division. That's big. Do the Titans have the resolve to make this happen? Do the Colts not have a little advantage in experience here? It would not surprise me a bit to have the Colts win by three scores more or less announcing, "hey, guess what? We're still here."

Indy +4

That would surprise me. The Titans defense is very good, and the Colts offense hasn’t been. Dom Rhodes doesn’t scare anyone, and apparently neither does Peyton. Chris Johnson and even Fat Lendale White should have a field day against the worst run d in the league, therefore controlling the clock. I don’t see a single advantage (I guess you could say experience) that the Colts have in this game. I don’t think the Titans are the dominant team in the NFL this year, their schedule has been big, but in this game, they are the better team. Straight up, hands down. Home field helps too. Chris Johnson over 150, Titans win 24-16.

Titans -4

Week 8

2008-10-26T07:33:00.000-07:00

Barack may be good, but Brett Favre would kick his ass in an election. Oz in black, Clay in blue.

14. Washington @ Detroit (+9):

I'd like to point out that Washington doesn't really blow people out, but Detroit refuses to keep things close. Remember playing basketball when you were younger and when you played against an older cousin or something they'd spot you a few points? I think they should do this here. Start the Lions up 10-0. That way the Redskins will be a little more comfortable because they can score a few times and the game will be close. Since this won't happen. I'm expecting the Redskins to win something like 20-7 with a dumb score from the Lions coming late.

Washington -9

This should happen, but how many points do the Chiefs get, ten won’t do it? The Skins don’t blow people out, but they gave up a late score last week for a back door cover by the Browns. Detroit is bad. Is Orlovsky the QB of the future? If not, why would you start him over Kitna? This doesn’t make sense to me.

Redskins -9

13. Kansas City @ New York Jets (-13):

Ladies and gentlemen, you're 2008 Kansas City Chiefs. Larry Johnson, product of the classy program in State College, Pennsylvania, would JoePa be happy with your behavior? I read a really touching article about Johnson being really sensitive and shy during his breakout year a couple years back. Apparently that has changed, huh?

No scenario here is surprising. The Jets just lost the the Raiders despite being given every opportunity to win. Could Brett Favre throw seven touchdowns this weekend? Sure. Will it happen? No.

Here is an interesting thought: who's more of a media darling, Favre or Obama? I'm giving the edge to Favre because if he were running for president, I think he'd win. Well, he'd win Wisconsin in a landslide. And all 3,408 analysts from the pregame shows would vote for him too.

Kansas City +13

What year do you think they stop adding more people to the pregame shows? Is it when they can’t fit any more people on one shot? Do you think they are all required to get stoned before the show so they will laugh a lot? Who runs these things?

Favre over Obama in a land slide. The Jets aren’t very good, and I attribute a lot to the offensive play calling. They are actually stopping the run, but they baffle me every week with their play calling. If Favre throws, this is a blowout, if not, KC could keep…nevermind, the Chiefs have no offense at all. They also suck at defense. I think the Springfield College pride could cover this spread with their option offense.

Jets -13

12. Oakland @ Baltimore (-6.5):

Neither. They are not good, but they're not bad either. They are in the middle and will probably be 8-8 this year just to prove my point. The defense is getting old, the offense is getting younger. That's odd. I think they should just rebuild.

Oakland almost blew the Jets game last week and I'm not sold they can score against the Ravens, but I'm taking a chance here.

Oakland +6.5

Oakland won’t be able to run on Baltimore and I wouldn’t trust Jamarcus Russell to throw me the remote across a room with wood flooring, let alone to win a football game without a running game.

Baltimore -6.5

11. Cincinnati @ Houston (-9.5):

It's a good thing Fitzpatrick is smart. At least he has something to fall back on. Since I'm being educated at Harvard, can I be an NFL quarterback? I can't be any worse than him. Houston is impressive, I think. They won't make the playoffs, but they may be a couple years away. This is a good spoiler team right now.

HOUSTON -9.5

Agreed about Houston, thought the same thing going into the season and they had a tough time getting started. I thought I had Cincy figured out as the team that continued to lose, but barely, and now with Fitzpatrick, I guess I have them figured out too. They suck.

Houston -9.5

10. Cleveland @ Jacksonville (-7):

Did you expect Jacksonville to be tougher this year? I mean tougher like, "oh shit you don't want to stand toe to toe with them." Soft teams would be a little scared going in because they knew they'd get smacked in the mouth on both sides of the ball. I'm not sure I feel this way. Cleveland has been playing better. This could be an upset, but it could also be a "hey, we're still way tougher than the Browns." I'm going with the latter.

Jacksonville -7

I thought Winslow wasn’t playing this week? Cleveland is actually much improved on defense, but I bet this bye helped out Jacksonville a lot, and we see that “tough” team down the stretch. Not sure if they will challenge Tenn for the title, but a wild card sounds right to me. By the way, can you believe Tenn is running away with this division? Is this at all similar to Tampa beating out the Sox and Yankees?

Jacksonville -7

9. Buffalo @ Miami (+1):

This is an intriguing match in the AFC East. Both teams could legitimately win this division and both teams have been wildly inconsistent. Miami plays great against two of the "better" teams in the league then shits the bed. Buffalo looks unstoppable at times, but they also look awful and inexperienced. When in doubt, go with the home team, right?

MIAMI +1

Right. I think Buffalo is a good team, but they aren’t one of the best teams. They have a couple good wins in there, but against teams that can control the clock and play some tough defense, I think they will get beat. Either that or teams that do what Arizona did to them and jump ahead and cruise because the Bills offense isn’t explosive. I think Miami steps up for this game and hits Buffalo in the mouth. It will be close, but like you said…

Miami +1

8.Seattle @ San Francisco (-4.5):

There's not one game I would rather watch less than this one. I'm serious. I'd watch any other game. San Francisco just fired their coach. They're either getting their ass kicked or winning big.

SAN FRANCISCO -4.5

I don’t think the firing will affect them much because Nolan didn’t run the offense and the defense sucked anyway. If Hasselbeck were here, I would take the points, but Seneca Wallace is not good. When your best receiver catches one ball all night like last week, then your offense is not working. San Fran won’t win many more this year, but when you get to play Seattle, KC, Detroit or Cincy twice, you are almost guaranteed two wins.

Niners -4.5

Week 7 pt. 2

2008-10-19T06:45:00.000-07:00

Did you realize the Packers haven't had cheerleaders since 1988? When I looked up Packers cheerleaders, this picture came up. Are you serious?

The following are the top seven picks for week 7 of the NFL season. This time, Clay is in BLUE, while I'm in black.

7. Cleveland @ Washington (-7)

These teams are probably a little off their value, with Washington off of an upset loss and Cleveland the other way around. Still, this line makes sense. The Redskins are sort of an enigma to me. They play good defense, have a good running back and a QB that “takes care of the ball.” Nothing exciting about them, but they appear at times to be one of the best teams in the league. Meanwhile Cleveland had a horrendous start, not getting anywhere near expectations until Monday night. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cleveland gave them a tough game, with a much improved defense. Hard not to get on the Browns bandwagon here, especially since I don’t totally buy into the skins.

Browns +7

That's a pretty solid point about it being hard not to get on the bandwagon. You know I was on the Browns to begin to season then jumped ship. They were impressive on Monday night against the defending champs (and they cost me a three team parlay). I have a hard time with Washington because any scenario fits them. Could they blow the Browns out? Yes. Could they win a close game? Yes. Could they lose a close game? Yup. Could Cleveland blow them out? Yes. No idea here. I'm going with my gut here, but I don't think the Redskins turn the ball over like they did last week. They're coming home after a tough loss.

Washington -7

6. New Orleans @ Carolina (-3)

The home teams keep winning in the NFC South. The Saints play in Carolina and then head to London. Carolina was a disappointment on the road last week, but they have been tough at home. These are opposite teams, one wins through the air, the other wins with defense and the ground game. Delhomme does enough to keep you honest, which makes them well rounded. Because of Gramatica, the Saints need this win more, but can a road team get through here. This is a tough one, should be a good game, but I have to take the home team because the Saints have just made too many mistakes, even at home.

Panthers -3

I would argue that this should be the top game of the week. It's an interesting matchup all the way around. Drew Brees is on pace to throw for more yards than most people travel in a year. Whoever owns him in fantasy football is pretty pleased with his 350 yard games every week. Also, people who own Reggie Bush (I do) are very happy because he scores twice a week. It's a good thing.

The Panthers are pretty tough to call. They also lost me a six (SIX!!) team parlay last weekend. I had made three parlays last week and I usually make one big one based on games I like. I never really expect to win the big wins, but I won five of six. I had the Panthers getting 3 points and felt pretty good about my bets. Then the Buccaneers blow them out. This is a revenge bet.

Saints +3

5. Minnesota @ Chicago (-3)

Another tight game, this is a tough week, a lot of 3 points spreads. I keep betting against Chicago because of my original feelings about them, but they are better then I give them credit for. The Vikings are actually 3-1 with Ferotte at the helm, but you have to throw to beat the Bears, and I don’t know if MInn can do that. Both of these teams stop the run and run the ball on offense. Their weaknesses on defense are both in the secondary, but neither team has the weapons to win through the air. Should be boring as hell. Chicago is at home and looks more dynamic to this point on offense.

Bears -3

Talk about an old school NFC battle here, huh? I also have been pretty mean towards the Bears. They actually aren't terrible. What a game last weekend against the Falcons though. It was great because after they went down and scored with 11 seconds left the announcers were talking about the Bears like "they're one of the best teams in the NFC" blah blah then they let Matt Ryan play catch to set up Jason Elam for the TD. The Bears, coming off that loss, aren't going to be too easy on the Vikings this week. I'd take the Bears giving ten.

Bears -3

4. Baltimore @ Miami (-3)

Baltimore is overrated after a strong start against shitty teams. Miami is underrated from last year and a slow start. They should have won last week and they will win this week. The Baltimore defense is good, but not dominant, and Miami is getting it done on offense somehow. I don’t see the Ravens getting much done on offense and I think Miami picks up another W. I think this team could be dangerous in the second half of the season.

Dolphins -3

I hate that I agree with your statement about Miami. I've always hated the Dolphins and I can't believe they're better than the Patriots. How about the lucky bastard who bets on te Dolphins to win the AFC East every year just because he's a loyal fan? They were like +2000 to win the East and they might actually do it. They're a good ballclub.

Dolphins -3

3. Denver @ New England (-3)

Poor Patriots, they had one of (if not the) best offenses ever, and one guy goes down and they suck. They really suck. The Denver defense could make them feel better, but I don’t think the defense can stop Denver. I love taking points in a Denver game because they have trouble blowing teams out when the defense can’t stop anyone. When the offense on the other side is struggling, I can get behind the Broncos, even on the road. I would love if I was wrong here, though, and the Chargers would have a shot at evening up with the Donkeys.

Broncos +3

Brandon Marshall is going to catch 35 balls on Monday night. I just threw up in my mouth.

Broncos +3

2. San Diego @ Buffalo (pick)

The Chargers travel all the way up and across the country and play early in the morning. Teams do not have a good record in these situations. Not to mention they head straight to London from here. They have been having 7AM meetings and 10am practice to try to acclimate themselves to the time change, though. Like the travel and time isn’t an advantage, Buffalo is coming off of a bye, which sounds a lot like the SD trip to Miami a couple of weeks ago. That one didn’t turn out so well. I have to have faith as a fan, and I think the Chargers are the better team. Would I be surprised if they lost, no, but I would be pissed off. Trent Edwards doesn’t scare me, and unless it rains like it did in Miami I have faith the Chargers offense can continue to roll.

Chargers pick

The Chargers looked pretty good against a Brady-less Patriots last week. I'm not willing to say you'd have won if #12 was there. The Bolts were solid offensively. I'm not sold on their defense because they faced Matt Cassel at quarterback. And we can't score after first and goal from the 1.

Bills pk

1. Indianapolis @ Green Bay (+1)

So we finally hear that Peyton had a second surgery, and does that mean last week is finally got healthy? I think that is probably the case. Rhodes can step in for Addai pretty seamlessly, I think, and GB defense has had its struggles this year. Ryan Grant should(?) be able to run all over the defense, so expect a lot of scoring here. The Packers are tough at home, but is Indy catching fire here. I think the offenses will rule this game, and I honestly have no idea who is going to win. Hard not to get behind the Colts seeing how they played last week, but that was a terrible offense and a banged up secondary. I would like to see the Packers win, and they are playing at home, so that’s where I will be.

Packers +1

Here's what's pissing me off, ready? Everyone starts talking all the trash about Eli being the better QB of the Manning family. Really? Peyton has a rough start and all of a sudden Eli "I still can't fucking believe they didn't call me in the grasp in the super bowl" Manning is better? That's crap. Now, Peyton has one good game and it's all "oh, Peyton Manning is back." He was never gone. I hate announcers.

Indy -1

Week 7

2008-10-19T06:37:00.000-07:00

The following are Clay and my picks for week seven of the NFL season. I'm in black, Clay is in blue.

14. Tennessee @ Kansas City (+9)

Shouldn't be much of a game here. The Titans look good. If Tennessee wins, they're 6-0. That's pretty impressive but a huge leap to take. They are playing at Arrowhead, where the Chiefs killed the Broncos earlier this year. I want to say Kansas City keeps it close, but I'm not sure they're closer than two scores.

Tennessee (-9)

That Denver game completely ruined my week. I lost a couple of parlays, a teaser and a lot straight up in that game. It was one of my favorite lines of the year, and I got destroyed. I am not going to let that sway me, though. KC is not good on either side of the ball, and I can’t imagine them getting anything done against the Titans defense. I think the Titans are 6-0, and I don’t think it is close. Baltimore kept it close, but they have a very good defense, the Chiefs don’t, anywhere.

Titans -9

13. Pittsburgh @ Cincinatti (+9.5)

I'm just not sold on the Steelers offense right now. They're defense is always really good and "Ben" seems to do just enough to win. Well, that's always been the case. The Steelers have always been a defense/run offense oriented team that gets enough from their QB to win. Remember, Tommy Maddux was their QB a few years back and they went into the playoffs. I don't think they have enough firepower to blow out the Bengals though.

CINCY +9.5

Are they coming off of a bye? They could easily roll in this game, but they haven’t been great on the road, and Cincinatti seems to keep it close more often then not lately. I like the Bengals to do just enough this week. Which felon gets it done, though? Fitzpatrick is the qb, I don’t know. I am with Cincy and the points today, but who knows tomorrow.

Bengals +9.5

12. Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-10.5)

I think this is a tough line because Tampa is tough to read. One week they can't do anything offensively, the next week they beat a 4-1 team by four scores. The initial thought is that Hasselbeck will play? I still don't think that's enough to win, but keep it close? Probably. I don't see the Buccaneers scoring 30 again.

Seattle +10.5

I think Tampa is much better at home then on the road. I think Seattle is bad everywhere, especially on the road. Hasselbeck is not playing, and it looks like Seneca Wallace will be healthy enough to play, but does that matter? This is a huge line, but they will probably cover it with ease. TB has won their 3 home games by an average of 16 ppg, and that was against three teams with a winning record,

Tampa -10.5

11. Dallas @ St Louis (+6.5)

Good call on this being a very uninteresting game. The Cowboys are about two arrests from being the Bengals. A player-friendly coach, an unruly clubhouse, and a crazy owner don't mix very well. This team could go 13-3 and get bounced in the first round of the playoffs because of the mercurial temperment there. You don't see a well-discplined team on a roll just destroying the Cowboys in their own stadium?

Dallas -6.5 (even if Romo sits)

St Louis is really really bad, and they didn’t win me over with the victory last week. Sure, I could see them getting better, but Dallas should be able to do plenty on the ground to win this game. Who’d have thought the line would be this low. A week ago, this line is 13.5. Not having Romo is huge, but they have enough weapons on offense that a steady veteran that won’t try to do too much should be able to come away with a win. I can’t say it would completely surprise me if St Louis covered or even won this one, but I can’t bet on them to do so.

I am actually hearing something that Romo may actually try to play? I wonder if that is better or worse. How long until Roy Williams makes an impact, because they could be really really good on offense once he does.

Cowboys -6.5

10. Detroit @ Houston (-9)

Houston giving nine at home, huh? That's absurd. They played well last week against the Dolphins and squeeked out a win in the final moments. I like that resiliance esepcially after that loss to Indianapolis.

Detroit on the other hand gave their 2nd receiver to Dallas for the rights to the "Debbie Does..." series. Cool move, Detroit.

Houston -9

Hahahaha, I actually think it is a good trade for Detroit. They get three more picks, including two in the first two rounds, and they get rid of salary. It is a rebuilding move, which should have happened two years ago. Detroit sucked already, and they have a hurt qb that just lost his best receiver. Orlovsky does not keep his team in the game here. It is weird to see a team with one win giving nine, but somehow I love this line.

Houston -9

9. San Francisco @ NYG (-11)

I'm surprised this line isn't lower after the Giants' stinkbomb on Monday night. There are two logical ways this team goes, at home, the following week: 1.) They shit all over the 49ers stomachs or 2.) They suck because they realize they're not invincible.

I'm going the first option. They'll realize they can be beat if they overlook someone and they're headed back home with a vendetta.

NYG -11

Did you really just say shit on their stomachs? Really, that is gross. I could have gone with pissed on their head, or just plain shit on them, but adding the stomach part gives you more of a visual, and a creepy one at that. I am much less interested in my California burrito that just arrived, thanks. Last time I took the team looking to get revenge, Dallas shit the bed, not on the Bengals stomachs, the Giants are probably a different team, though. I have been behind SF a bit much the last few weeks, and they really aren’t very good. They got beat by 14 last week, but it was closer then the score. NO blew them out on the road, and the Giants are capable of that. They beat Seattle 44-3, they should win by two TDs right? The over may be better here. Because the Giants should want a statement here, I am going with them, but I don’t love it.

Giants -11

8. NYJ @ Oakland (+3)

Oakland is another team in shambles right now. They've got two potential (down the road, I mean) 1,000 yards rushers in Fargas and McFadden and a young quarterback. In the long run, this team will be fine because they're good defensively. What I mean is the front office is a mess after this Lane Kiffen thing. Al Davis needs the boot pretty soon. The Raiders will be 6-10 this year.

Jets -3

The Raiders will be lucky to be 6-10 this year. They have a good running game, and they should get some quality yards on the ground vs the Jets, but they have no threat what so ever through the air and that is brutal. Their defense is solid, but they just can’t get it done as a team. They blow every lead they get, and they flat out don’t know how to win. The Jets are hard to figure out, but against the bottom of the NFL, I think the Jets will thrive, and that is what they are looking at for most of their schedule.

Jets -3

Week Six part 2

2008-10-11T10:43:00.000-07:00

Ladies and gentlemen, Kelli from the Jacksonville Jaguars

Here are the top seven games for week six in the NFL. Happy wagering.

7. Oakland @ New Orleans (-7.5):

Wait. Did that really happen? You've got to be shitting me. When I was in high school, the juniors on the track team would always play the senior on the track team in a full-out fast pitch baseball game. Now, I'm not that great at baseball, but like your team, we were down a run and I hit a double, putting the tying run in scoring position. The next THREE batters recorded outs and we lost. That said, I'd be bullshit if I were Reggie Bush, but that was an odd game. How can any team total over 700 yards and lose? It's just the nature of the game sometimes. It's all about the scoreboard at the end of the game.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5

Yeah, and New Orleans blows all the little things. Gramatica is a tool bag and if they had a real kicker they would have at least two more wins now. Oakland has been crappy for a few years now, but they have always seemed to keep games close. I don’t understand how a team can be in so many games and lose just about all of them. They just don’t know how to win. That being said, they tend to keep it close with good defense and a good running game. I wouldn’t be surprised if NO blew it up, but I have to take a points with the fourth quarter lead blowers.

Oakland +7.5

6. Carolina @ Tampa Bay (1):

Carolina isn't a boring team to watch, but the Buccaneers are. The Panthers are a lot like the Patriots of a few years ago. They weren't explosive, but they won games. Lots of them. This Carolina team reminds me of them. Good running backs, efficient quarterback, great coach. The Panthers go into the pirate ship and rob those pussies.

Carolina +1

I agree, Tampa Bay is boring and they don’t do anything really well. They are a good all around team, but I don’t understand what happened last week. Tampa can be tough on any given week, but Carolina is just a bit stronger at everything.

Panthers +1

5. Philadelphia @ San Francisco (+4.5):

So it Philly getting in the top five because they're in the NFC East? I don't think this game is very interesting. San Francisco isn't that good of a football team and I'm pretty sure they never will be. The Eagles are better than the 49ers.

Philly -4.5

See I think that the Niners are actually a decent team. Their defense isn’t horrible, and their offense is pretty explosive. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Niners even win this game, especially with no Westbrook. The Eagles are poorly coached and they always seem to let down. They have the potential to be one of the best teams in the league, but they just don’t get it done. In spite of you, and because they aren’t very good on the road, especially three time zones, I am taking the Dogs. This line seems too low, but I still don’t want to take it, which is why I like the home dog here.

Niners +4.5

4. New England @ San Diego (-6):

I have two things to say: 1.) If you're not coming to the new place, we're no longer friends. 2.) If the Chargers can't beat the Patriots without Tom Brady, they never will.

New England +6

I can’t believe they didn’t beat the patriots two years ago when Reche Caldwell was their best receiver. Both teams look like crap. The Chargers at least have hope because their injuries aren’t as series, yet. All I have to say is they better win here. I think LT should be sitting if he is hurting because Sproles healthy is better then LT hurt, and sitting out usually helps you to recover.

Chargers -6

3. Baltimore @ Indianapolis (-5):

Are you mailing it in at the end of the picks? I'm really not okay with all of this. Indianapolis isn't really that good and it pisses me off. It pisses me off because the "top" teams in the AFC are Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Denver. The Patriots, with Tom Brady, are better ... WAY better ... than all of them. They're better than Dallas, they're better than New York, and they're better than the rest of the NFL. I'm about half a bottle deep right now and I should be able to finally be pissed about all of this. Remember when Michael Jordan retired, Hakeem Olajuwon won MVP and the Rockets won the NBA title. All the while, everyone was all, "this is kinda bullshit. We all know the best player is playing baseball and if he were here things would be different." Yup, that's how I feel.

(Okay, well here's where I am rational. The NBA was ten times better when Jordan was in the league? Why? Because he was the best and most exciting player? Because he was the most intense competitor? No. It was because with him on the floor, everyone stepped their game up. Brady is the same way. Everyone who played the Patriots last year played their very best ball because they needed to in order to match Brady's combination of talent and determination. That competition is what's lacking the NFL this year. Okay, back to me being irrational.)

The NFL is terrible this year. FUCK. I need a refill.

Baltimore (+5)

Indy looks like crap. Actually I haven’t even watched a game yet, but they aren’t beating anyone. I believe that Joe Flacco will not give away a game like Sage did (by the way, I love this name. People get shit for calling Ben Roethlisburger “Ben”, but Sage is just fun to say. I can spell his last name, but is Sage fun?). Indy can’t stop the run, and that’s pretty much what Baltimore does. Last week was the shot Indy had to show they still could get it done on offense and they didn’t do it. So until further notice, I consider the Colts offense as subpar. Wow, what a difference a year makes.

Baltimore +5

2. Dallas @ Arizona (+5):

This is off topic, but I'm watching American Gangster right now, and I decided I need to befriend a 35-40 year old black man for the following reason: I want a CD of 1970's R&B. We're talking Marvin Gaye, Nina Simone, Sam Cooke, etc. I don't want any of that bullshit iTunes suggestions. I want someone who used to listen to 45's in their parents smokey apartments and give me some CLASSICS. I would really be okay with all of this. On that note: I've been listening to a lot of Lauryn Hill lately. She's unreal. I don't even care if she hates white people.

Dallas (-5)

Dallas doesn’t seem to be all there right now. I don’t know what is wrong with them, but I am nervous for them at Arizona, who is much better at home then on the road. I hate white people too, ok, that’s not true, but I hate this game. I want to take Arizona, but I can’t do it. Dallas has the better team and should win here, but I have a feeling come Sunday I will be telling someone, “Damnit, I thought Arizona was going to win, but I didn’t pick them.”

Dallas -5

1. Jacksonville @ Denver (-3.5):

Good pick for numero uno. I don't have much else to say. I think in the NFL P.B (Post-Brady) we have these games to look forward to. The Jaguars are pretty good. They're not outstanding. Same goes for the Broncos. They're both two of the best teams in the league, I guess. Would it surprise me if either team won the Super Bowl? Probably one more than the other, but who cares. Whatever.

The NFL: Get on fucking board.

Jacksonville +3.5

I have a feeling Denver is going to crash eventually. This should be tough with a couple guys injured on offense and a Jags team that is very physical. We know the Jags won’t have trouble scoring, and the Broncos shouldn’t, but anytime a quality team is getting 3 points or more against Denver, I will take them because Denver can’t stop an offense driving in a close game.

Jags +3.5

Week Six picks part 1

2008-10-11T10:37:00.000-07:00

Here are the first of the week six picks. Clay is in black, I'm in blue.

So last week I mentioned that I rated most of the games very high and had a tough time deciding which ones were the best, well this week it is the complete opposite. I only ranked 3 games over a 6, and can not believe what makes up the top 5, let alone the bottom 5. The Chargers vs Patriots game would have been one of the top games to look forward to all season, before Brady got hurt, the defense started to show its age, and the Chargers lost Merriman and the ability to be good. I can sum up the Chargers season with one visual from last weeks game. With the Dolphins on their final drive of the game, just trying to get first downs and keep the Charger’s offense off the field, Stephen Cooper (in his first game back from steroid suspension) made a nice tackle near the Dolphins sideline. He gets up talks shit to the sideline and kisses his bicep. Really?! You are losing and you can’t stop the offense from running the ball right up the gut even though a first time NFL viewer would know that is what they will do, and you are talking shit and kissing your bicep? This team is made up of talented douche bags that only care about themselves, and that’s why they can’t win as a team (at least on defense).

That's a hell of a rant there. You could be completely right though. Lots of talent, no heart. The Chargers look like they all think they should win individual trophies, thinking that should win them team titles. Not the case. Do your job, trust the others will do theirs, and good things will come. Tuesday Morning QB was good this week. Check that out. (It's related to what I just said, I promise)

Anyway, now that that is out of my system, on to the rankings.

14. St Louis @ Washington (-13.5): The worst team in the NFL vs maybe the second best team, at this point at least. The rams are terrible and have one hope, a let down after two of the biggest road wins in a long time for the Redskins.

You're right. I think Washington is a top four team in the league right now. You're telling me Clinton Portis doesn't rush for 545 yards this weekend against the Rams? Two touchdowns is a lot of points to give an NFL team. This spread is too high to trust. I agree with the letdown game, but there's no way they lose to the Rams at home. Rams cover.

St. Louis +13.5

The Rams have been destroyed in every game they have played to this point. Even their last game at home vs Buffalo they were leading and ending up losing by over 20. Bye week doesn't help, and neither does a letdown, Redskins roll against one of the worst NFL teams ever.

Redskins -13.5

13. NYG @ Cleveland (+9): Cleveland couldn’t even score on Cincy, and Derek Anderson will spend most of his last start on ground.

Without a doubt. Let the Brady Quinn era begin. The Giants are going to blow the Browns out. They've got Plaxico back, no one on the Browns is going to be able to tackle Brandon Jacobs, and Anderson should be looking up at the Cleveland skyline (which disgusting and polluted, um, I mean beautiful, I may add).

New York Giants -9

I can't argue, the Giants are hard to trust sometimes, but they are way better than this Browns team. They should roll here, all game long. Do you think Cleveland's offense ever comes back?

Giants -9

12. Detroit @ Minnesota (-13.5): Do you see the common theme at the bottom? Terrible terrible terrible.

Wow. You've got one team that is incapable of doing anything on offense OR defense and another team incapable of scoring touchdowns, yet they're given a two touchdown line. This game could be 15-0 on all field goals. Detroit may sneak out a score though. There's a JV cross country meet this weekend that I think will be more thrilling than this game. Think about that. Since when are there JV cross country meets? Do that many people like running now?

Minnesota -13.5

Detroit is just like St Louis, I won't be on them (again in Detroits case) until they play one single game close. Detroit may have the worst defense ever, and even MInnesota's struggling offense, which didn't struggle in a crazy game in New Orleans, should find their way to the end zone early and often. Another blow out in my mind.

Minnesota -13.5

11. Chicago @ Atlanta (+3): Do the Bears have the easiest schedule in the league? I said it last week, the Ravens are the best crappy team. There are more upsets up their sleeve…one here wouldn’t surprise me a bit.

I've been impressed with Matt Ryan. He played well against the Packers last week and I think the Falcons may give the Ravens a run for best crappy team. Or at least the most exciting to watch. When does Michael Vick get out of jail? He'll never go back to Atlanta , right? If he plays Atlanta , will he be trying to get revenge? Doubtful. People in Atlanta supported him, right? What if he was fighting Falcons instead of dogs? Is that even a crime? Speaking of animal crimes, did you hear about the 7 year old in Australia ? Allegedly, he broke into the zoo at night and started picking up lizards and turtles and threw them into the crocodile cage. What a twisted kid. Who is worse, him or Vick?

ATLANTA +3

I am starting to think Atlanta may, somehow, possibly, maybe be more then just the best crappy team. But that is only because most teams in the NFL (outside of the NFC East) appear to be crappy. I don't think Chicago is 6 points better then Atlanta, so I will take the points at home and smile.

Atlanta +3

10. Miami @ Houston (-3): Hard to say if Miami is a lot better then we thought or the Chargers and Pats are a lot worse then we thought. I think it’s a bit of both. Sage, that was about as graceful as my launch off of a chair on the dance floor at the wedding on Saturday when I almost killed a 5 ft girl.

You're probably right. The Chargers and Pats both regressed a little and the Dolphins got better. Ronnie Brown is a good player though. The Texans are in tough shape. When you blow a 17 point lead with four minutes left, morale goes down the toilet. Imagine being at the game as a die-hard Texan fan (if they exist)? It would have taken a lot to not charge the field or drive my car into oncoming traffic. Kind of like Lakers fans did after game 4 of the Finals.

Miami +3

I think Miami is pretty good. Part of that could be from watching them make my team look stupid last week, but they play some tough defense, and they can definately run the ball. They have a qb that won't win the game for you, but he is very capable and isn't likely to lose the game for you. Against a subpar team that just finished one of the biggest choke jobs (at home) that I have ever seen. I like Miami to stay hot. I wouldn't be suprised if Miami made some moves in a wide open division.

Miami +3

9. Green Bay @ Seattle (-1): The Green Bay defense is a little suspect these days, but Seattle can’t do anything well lately. Can you believe GB is getting a point at 0-3 Seattle (I don’t consider St Louis an NFL team). What is going on? Besides the Rams win, they have given up 37ppg.

If you're unaware, my students are taking the PSAT's in my classroom right now and I'm researching NFL picks. How does that work out? They work really hard and I don't. Oh well. Their papers are graded, progess reports are handed out, their test for Friday is made up, what else do they want?!?

Seattle at home? Packers fans losing faith in Rodgers?

SEATTLE -1

Man, Seattle got destroyed last week, and that was off of a bye with two starters back (sort of). Seattle will improve as the season goes by, but this is a must win for the Packers, and I have trouble imagine them losing this one. I guess it wouldn't suprise me if Seattle played their best game of the year here at home, but Green Bay is a better team all around, and Seattle is still hurting too much.

Green Bay +1

8. Cincinnati @ NYJ (-6): Does Cincy finally come out and score this week? This could be similar to that Arizona game with a lot of points.

Carson Palmer finally seems to have gotten some sort of groove going. Whether that is short lived or not, who really knows. The bottom line is that Palmer is a pretty good quarterback and before the first four weeks of the season, he was considered one of the top five. Everyone seems to be forgetting this.

I do think that Palmer, despite his woes thus far is still better than Brett Favre. However, his team is pretty bad. I was watching PTI the other day and, apparently, the Brown family (the Bengals owners) won't fire anyone during the year because they don't want to pay them off to resign. So at least we know Marvin Lewis' job is safe for another few months. This is probably a 6 win team in Cincinatti, but I agree with the theory this game is going to be like the Arizona game. Jets win, Bengals keep it within a touchdown.

Cincy +6

The Bengals offense has looked better recently, and against this defense, they may finally have one of those games we expect from this offense. I am glad that this week in fantasy when I play you, Palmer and Portis both play cupcake defenses, I can't wait to be 1-5. I agree that Cincy does enough to keep it close, hell, they almost did that in Dallas last week.

Bengals +6

Week five

2008-10-03T17:53:00.000-07:00

This weekend I'm moving a few towns over, thus, I can't break down each of my picks for you, but I refuse to not share with you my thoughts. In blue is Clay. I'm in black. We'll be back next week.

14. Cincinnati @ Dallas (-17.5)

This line actually moved down to 17, which is much better. Palmer is only participating in running place in practice,

Kenny Watson is questionable, Dede Dorsey is out, Chris Perry has a hurt hamstring, but should play, if not you are looking at Cedric Benson. Cincinatti has no defense and now no offense. Why shouldn’t Dallas win this game 28-6? Ocho Cinco apparently told his cousin that he was going to have a good game this week. Well first of all, why does Lil’ Wayne have a blog on ESPN? And why is it on the front page? This guy lives in LSU, but his teams are the Packers, the Red Sox and UNC basketball. Seriously? Can we take this guy seriously as a sports fan?

Dallas -17.5

Cincy +17.5 -- Dallas plays their cheerleaders in the second half

13. Kansas City @ Carolina (-9.5):

Like I said before, I am not buying the Chiefs yet. They won’t be able to do what they did last week on offense. They are on the road now against a quality opponent and we will see that the Chiefs are who we thought they’d be.

Carolina -9.5

Carolina -9.5

12. Atlanta @ Green Bay (-7):

The Pack are hurting a bit, but I don’t think it matters with a rookie in Lambeau. The defense will be fired up and stack the line against Turner. Rodgers is a big question mark right now, but I think he plays. This is a must win for the Pack, and they are the better team. I hope Grant finally breaks out this week, if he is healthy enough, he should.

Pack -7

Atlanta +7

11. Chicago @ Detroit (+3.5):

I’m on all favorites so far, but I guess that is why we picked these as the worst games of the week, good team vs bad team. Detroit is coming off of a bye, which is good for a banged up Kitna, but Detroit can’t stop any offense, and Forte should have a big day. Detroit could keep this game close with a nice game plan, but the truth is, I haven’t seen anything yet that suggests they can win against anyone in the top 3/4ths of the league. That being said, I have a feeling here that Detroit is coming to come off of their bye at home against an overrated team, and get it done. Getting rid of their GM doesn’t make it better, but it may be one of those things that gives a team hope when they previously had none. It is something to be happy about and maybe they play looser and upset a team that really only has one solid offensive weapon, and a defense that is susceptible to the pass.

Lions +3.5

Detroit +3.5

10. San Diego @ Miami (+6.5):

Miami coming off of a bye doesn’t scare me, Ronnie Brown doesn’t scare me, and neither does Chad Pennington. The Chargers defense has the potential to shut this team down, if they do so, they will win by much more than this. Miami can pretty much scrap the rest of the season after the win in New England, and the Chargers need a run to get to the front of the AFC West. Not to mention they are way more talented. The questions I have are, does Chambers have an revenge factor here, and how soon until Antoine Cason takes over Antonio Cromartie’s job? One looks way better then the other so far.

Chargers -6.5

San Diego -6.5

9. Seattle @ NYG (-7):

I think the bye week was great for both teams, hopefully the Giants kept their focus, because this us against the world thing is their best ally. If they start getting cocky, they will fall. They have no Plax which is huge, he is without a doubt their best offensive player. The defense should get their share of hits on Hasselbeck, and I doubt that Branch and Engram will make a splash right away. I can guarantee the Giants are looking ahead to the big matchup with the Browns, so they should win this one relatively easily. I do think Seattle starts to get better and challenges for the honor of the worst team in the playoffs by winning the NFC West.

Giants -7

NYG -7

8. Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3): Adrian Peterson over 150, and he will be their best defense as well. The Saints can score on anyone, and they thrive in the passing game which is not the Vikings strength. If AP keeps pounding the ball and using the clock, then the defense has an easier job. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did this and it worked, but I like the home team against Gus Ferotte. The Vikings have one win, and it was at home and it was weird. I don’t know why the Panthers couldn’t do anything, but I think New Orleans can.

Saints -3

N.O. -3

7. New England @ San Francisco (+3):

This is one of my favorite lines of the week. Bill Belichick is arguably one of the best coaches every coming off of a bye. This team has a ton of talent (obviously, they lost one guy from a super bowl favorite team) and they just had to adjust right away from the loss of their qb. Now they had two weeks to figure out how to run the offense with a different qb. The SF defense is not that good, and I have faith that Belichick figured out how to score. The defense will do enough, and the Patriots will roll in those one against a team much less talented.

Patriots -3 (emphatically)

New England -3

6. Indianapolis @ Houston (+3):

Indy should have benefited from a week off, and they are a well coached, talented team. I still don’t think they will be up to the form we expect, and the defense is obviously worlds apart when Bob Sanders is playing. Slaton should have a field day, but I think the Indy line, now healthy, should give Peyton the time he needs. He didn’t play all preseason, and it showed, no he had two weeks to rest and get better with his team. I think the Colts offense comes back to form a bit this week.

Colts -3

Indy -3

5. Buffalo @ Arizona (-1):

Both of these teams fit the “how good are they really” category. After seeing the Cardinals defense last week, and the Bills score another come from behind win, I think the Bills are for real and the Cardinals are not. I am excited to see if I am right or wrong here, but I think the Bills offense has no trouble scoring, and the defense will make enough stops to actually carry a lead and win the game.

Buffalo +1

Buffalo +1

4. Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-4):

I think Pitt is at their peak for injuries and Jacksonville is crawling back from injuries. The Jags looked like they could be dead in the water a few weeks ago, but they have pulled out two close wins, and should feel a lot more comfortable. The Jags def hasn’t looked as good as it is supposed to, but they should get a boost playing against the shitty Pitt line, and their third string running back. I see Pitt throwing a lot, and Ben (yes, I call him by first name because I don’t know how to spell his last name) should be dirty by games end. I think this is close, and they could win by a field goal, but I cant bet on Pitt to do enough on the road when they just look beat up and tired.

Jacksonville -4

Jacksonville (if the line is under 5)

3. Tampa Bay @ Denver (-3):

Denver is coming off of a dirty loss, and come back to the friendly confines of Mile High, I’m still calling it that. Tampa is one of those teams that is rarely pretty to watch and you ask yourself how they won every time they do, but they win a lot. They are well coached, and play tough defense. I don’t think their defense stops the Broncos, but the Broncos couldn’t even stop Kansas City . The Bucs keep up the aggressive play calling on offense and beat a team that is only good on one side of the ball because they are the more well rounded team. Whenever you think the road dog can win straight up, you have to take the points.

Bucs +3

Tampa Bay +3

2. Washington @ Philadelphia (-5.5):

Westbrook does look like he will be back, and Philly should start to fly again. Washington has a great pass defense, so this is a tough matchup for the Eagles, but I think McNabb healthy is just too good to be stopped, at least in the first three quarters. Washington is a bit over valued after their surprise win in Dallas , and the Eagles are a bit under rated after their loss in Chicago . Washington I think is legit, but Philly is better. They will both score, but Philly at home with a more aggressive team on both sides of the ball wins this one by a TD.

Eagles -5.5

Washington +5.5

1. Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3):

I like this one for the same reasons I like the Buff vs Ari game, only I think both teams are better. Both of these teams have exceeded my expectations. I tend to think Tenn is the better team on both sides of the ball. Baltimore has been good because the offense has been effective and not made mistakes, while the defense has been great. Neither team has had very tough competitions so far, so it is nice to see them against each other. This is actually another of my favorite lines because I think the Tenn def terrorizes the Baltimore offense, and they win this one by two scores. The Titans have been a great bet all year because they don’t make a lot of mistakes on either side of the ball. Baltimore is the same, but I think their offense is a liability against good teams, and the Titans offense has been better. Kerry Collins is good when he doesn’t try to do too much, and Chris Johnson is a stud. I am starting to love this Titans team because they get great lines every week and continue to cover. Keep it rollin’.

Titans -3

Tennessee -3

Top Five NFL Picks

2008-09-28T07:29:00.000-07:00

Apologies for how late these are. Here are the top five games in week four.

(Note: Clay couldn't make his picks in form of a written response. Just his straight picks are up.)

5. Philadelphia @ Chicago +3

It looks like McNabb is going to be ready to suit up on Sunday, but it appears Westbrook may be sitting and I can't really blame him here. Chicago's defense is pretty solid, so why risk an injury here. This makes me unhappy because he was my top pick in fantasy football. Without Westbrook, this team loses it's major option, but with the Eagles defense, I don't see Kyle Orton making many big plays. Even in Chicago, I gotta bet on the Eagles.

Philly -3

4. Minnesota @ Tennessee -3

Tennessee is sitting pretty atop the AFC North, but how long can we expect that to continue? They've looked good on offense and defense and while they're not flashy, they're just winning football games and that's all you need to know how to do really. I think, however, that the Titans will get a dose of reality against a team that I think is clearly better even though Gus Frerotte is their quarterback.

Minnesota +3

3. Green Bay @ Tampa Bay -1

Hmmm. This is a funny line. If you'd had just given me the game and where it was being played without the line, I'd have predicted the line to be at about 4 points for the road favorite. Tampa Bay has a friggin pirate ship in their stadium, but does that give them THAT much of a home field advantage? If this game were at Lambeau, the Packers would be a 6 point favorite, guarentee. I have to go with the maxim that you gotta bet on a road dog if you think they can win outright.

Green Bay +1

2. Baltimore @ Pittsburgh -5.5

Not sure what to make of this game. The Ravens defense isn't going to let Mendenhall be true on his "I'm gonna have a big game" prediction, but Joe Flacco isn't going to do anything against the Steelers defense. This is a good under game. I say Baltimore keeps it close, but ultimately loses.

Baltimore +5.5

1. Washington @ Dallas -11.5

If we made our own power rankings, would Dallas be at the top? I say definitely. They've had the highest ranking game every week mainly because every team in their division could be a playoff team. Three of them were last year. I never thought I would say that the NFC East is an entertaining division, but this year it is. I have to admit though. I hate the Cowboys. I've always hated the Cowboys, but this year they're pissing me off because everyone is on their jock straps. Yes, I am a little mad because the Patriots were the top dog last year and now they're not. That said, I don't think there are many defenses capable of stopping the Cowboys. The Redskins certainly aren't one of them.

Cowboys -11.5

Clay's picks:
Philly -3, Tennessee -3, Green Bay +1, Baltimore +5.5, Cowboys 11.5

Week Four Picks cont.

2008-09-27T08:03:00.000-07:00

Reggie Bush leads the Saints against the 49ers in this weekend's #6 match-up

The following are the middle five games this weekend. Oz in black, Clay in blue.

10. Atlanta @ Carolina -7

Someone on ESPN (I forget who or I'd call them out) said that Carolina showed their true, inconsistent colors against Minnesota. I want to punch that man. The Panthers opened the season @ San Diego, against Chicago, and @ Minnesota and came out 2-1. Now they go into two winnable games against Atlanta, Kansas City, then will probably head into a pivotal division match at Tampa Bay at 4-1. They welcomed Steve Smith back last week, who'll add a deep threat and the Panthers have gotten consistency out of both D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. I think they cruise in this game.

(I think I should add, too, that before the season, the main focus was "wow, there might be a lot of good AFC teams that won't make the playoffs in their conference," but now I'm looking at the NFC. Philly, Dallas, NYG, Chicago, GB, Minnesota, Carolina, Tampa Bay, N.O., and any NFC West team not named the Rams as playoff teams.)

Carolina -7

Atlanta is 2-1 which is really depressing for all of the 1-2/0-3 teams, including my Super Chargers. Wins over Detroit and Kansas City don’t earn you respect, though. They are definitely the class of the shitty teams. I think all year they are going to take care of business against those shitty teams because they have a very good running back, and a rookie QB that knows how to manage a game. When they run into good defenses and/or good offenses they will likely struggle…more so against good defenses. Well Carolina has both, and they are at home. I think Carolina rolls in this one and gets a relatively easy win because they will stack the box and make Matt Ryan beat them, and…well…he can’t.

Carolina -7

9. Arizona @ NYJ -1

Why is it that I refuse to do my picks without a beer? Except when I tinker a little bit in school with my selections, I am drinking while doing them. I wish I could use that as a reason for why my record is under .500.

I think I said this earlier in the week in an e-mail that I'm not ready to jump on the "Hey, New York could win the division" bandwagon. I've never been on. To quote a recent insult toward the GOP VP nominee, "you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig." The Jets are still the Jets. They lack weapons offensively, their defense isn't spectacular, and they're play-calling has been awful this year. Favre makes too many mistakes, which is called "just trying to win the game." He's been forcing balls and making bad decisions for four seasons now. It's not a coincidence that the Packers are still a top team in their division without him.

Think the oddsmakers are suspicious? They set the line at 1 point for the Jets AT HOME, AGAINST THE CARDINALS.

Arizona +1

Haha, that is a pretty bad sign for your team. I like that Greggy (our Jets fan friend) says “If only the offense could play like they did in the fourth quarter Monday night for a whole game.” When looking at the game with a little less emotion, I think one would notice that the defense stops trying to hold the opposing offense when they have a 24 point lead, but just not to give up big plays. Maybe, just maybe, that is why the Jets scored all but 7 of their offensive points in the fourth qtr.

This is a good matchup here. Two teams that are making cases to challenge this year. Arizona has looked better (against worse competition) but they go on the road for this one. The Jets struggled to stop anything last week after two good defensive efforts. I think the first two offenses were weak, so they will probably have some trouble keeping Arizona from scoring. The Cardinal defense isn’t as good as the Chargers (at least on Monday when they were blitzing more than not) so the Jets only hope to stay in this game is that Favre throws often and to the right team. The running game still hasn’t gotten going, but Az is giving up over 100 per game so far. In the end, I think the Arizona offense is going to be too much to handle. I won’t put much faith in the Jets offense until I see Favre on the same page with his receivers. There were just too many balls that went no where near a receiver that was running a different route than Brett anticipated. Once they do, this offense could be very good, but they aren’t there yet.

Cardinals +1

8. San Diego @ Oakland +7

Well, the Chargers finally did it. They broke into the win column. It's really no surprise. The Bolts are one of the top teams in the league, but they need to start better than they do. I'm impressed with the way Rivers controls the ball when LT is neutralized, if that has ever really happened. He puts passes exactly where they need to go. San Diego's defense has been suspect to start the season, but no one is willing to test out if Cromartie or Jammer have their heads in the game. I'm pretty sure JaMarcus Russell isn't going to take chances against either of them this week.

San Diego is too good and the only reason this line isn't 12.5 is because they're playing in Oakland. (As one of the greatest sports writers of all-time, Jim Murray once said, "Here's how to describe the difference between San Francisco and Oakland: to cross the bridge and drive into San Francisco, you pay a dollar; to get over the bridge and go into Oakland, they let you go for free.")

Chargers -7

San…Di…ego…..Super Chargers! Now that is what I have been looking for. Aggressive on both sides of the ball, and LT looking healthy. He didn’t have a big game, but he looked healthy, and we haven’t seen that since before the playoffs last year. Gates looks healthy and Marcus McNeill is back on the left side. The offense is going to keep rolling and I don’t think there is anything anyone can do to stop them, including the Raiders. The last thing Raiders fans wanted to see this week was LT healthy (829 yds and 12 Tds over last 3 years vs Raiders). The Oakland offense is too one dimensional and the Chargers should have no trouble stacking the box and taking a very supbar passing game one on one. By the way, the Chargers have won those 6 games by a combined score of 167-69 and you have to go back to Sept 28, 2003 to find the last time the Raiders beat the Chargers.

Chargers -7

7. Cleveland @ Cincinnati -3.5

I don't know if either punters are needed here. The over/under is 44.5 and I'm probably going to take it. The Browns really need a win here. If they don't get one, I'm pretty sure both the playoff run and the Derek Anderson era are offically over. (Do I sound like a happy fantasy owner of Kellen Winslow? Thanks for the two points last weekend) Here is the Browns problem: they pass too much. Sure they have weapons, but balance the offense and you can use them better. Jamal Lewis is still a solid back, and backup Jason Wright really needs to carry the ball more than 2 times in three weeks. I'm worried about the Browns, who are a staggering 10-0 in Madden 2009 on XBox 360 under my control.

Cleveland -3.5

Maybe you should be coaching this team. I love the Madden commercial (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itlScR7ImoA) where he talks about guys not punting and going for it on fourth and 30. That really is a funny commercial. I think the real John Madden is more comical than Frank TV. Has anyone watched this show? The commercials just make it look terrible to me. He is funny, but that show, really?

Really, how is the Browns offense this bad so far? These teams are lucky to be playing each other this early so that one of them gets a win. I expected the Bengals to be bad, but I expected the Browns to be better than this. Their defense doesn’t look much better than last year, and the offense can’t get anything going. Anderson has been a huge disappointment so far, and now Brady Quinn is back in the picture. If he has a bad first half, that could be it. I personally think that he shines this week. Last time he was playing for his job was last year against cincy when he threw for 328 yds and 5 TD in a 51-45 win. I don’t think there are that many points this time around, but I do think Derek Anderson finds a groove with his receivers. I think the put up some points against a terrible defense and I think this game comes down to the last drive. If someone has to win this game, I think I will take the points.

Browns +3.5

6. San Francisco @ New Orleans -6

The fact that San Francisco has reached the #6 slot for most interesting game of the week is astounding. JT O'Sullivan has taken over the starting slot on Undefeated Again, though I'm leaning toward starting Carson Palmer against the Bengals. O'Sullivan looks good, though he may be like a Japanese pitcher that is unhittable until he's figured out then rendered obsolete. On the other hand, the Saints, against a good Denver defense moved the ball very efficiently. Does Reggie Bush look like a full-time back now? This offense could be straight scary once Drew Brees has weapons to throw to down the field. I'm thinking the over again here, or including the Saints in a ballsy 6.5 point teaser.

New Orleans -6

Ok, first of all, did you just say a “good Denver defense?” They have given up 84 points in three games and that includes only 14 to an Oakland team that cannot play from behind because they can’t pass. They are allowing 421 yards per game…they are about as good on defense as Jessica Alba is at acting, that’s not what they’re getting paid for. The offense is good and will be better when/if they are healthy. I also think they are handling Deuce McAllister the right way, too. He is 29 and has only had 4 season with over 100 carries, so it’s not unfathomable that he could recover from two knee surgeries and return to form. If it is possible, they are doing things the right way by easing him back in.

Neither team here has been playing any kind of defense so far. The Niners are 2-1 after beating two terrible teams and losing to a pretty good team, and NO is 1-2 after beating a playoff team and losing on the road to two pretty good teams. The Saints are down their top two receivers, but I don’t think it will matter this week against the San Fran defense. I think both teams will score a lot of points, and I like the home team to prevail. Right now, though, I have to think these two teams are pretty even with the NO injuries. If San Francisco can keep scoring points they should be in this game. If the offense starts to stall, they could be in trouble. I think NO wins this game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was just by one score. Lets just hope that one score isn’t 7.

Niners +6

The last five will be posted shortly.

Bottom Three - Week 4

2008-09-25T13:39:00.000-07:00

Hey Bills fan! You're starting quarterback, Trent Edwards!

The following at the bottom three games for week four in the NFL Season. Clay in black, Oz in blue.

13. Buffalo @ St Louis +9.5

Somehow in their failure to cover last week, the Bills won me over a bit. Coming from behind like that was impressive. It showed their offense didn’t have to rely on the running game to win. Part of what scares me about Buffalo is that they don’t have the fire power to come from behind. Well Trent Edwards got me on his side, and he is now on my side. Yes, I’m Gonna Poo on You is now led by Trent Edwards. St Louis, home of my old QB, looks like garbage. If they haven’t given up yet, they will after they lose this one at home to go 0-4. No offense and no defense means an easy cover for you 2008 AFC East Champions.

Bills -9.5

Wow. Did you expect to say any of those things three weeks ago? Not only did your starting quarterback become Trent Edwards, but the Bills are now your pick to win the lowly AFC East. I think there were a lot of people high on the Bills coming into the season. The hook being that with the Patriots in the mix and contingent on the Browns being good (which they aren't), the Bills looked like they could be 10-6 and still miss the playoffs. Now they're a front runner for a spot among the final six AFC teams. Somewhere a smile just came across Schlabach's face and he doesn't know why.

Patriots fans, don't kill me, but I agree with Clay inasmuch as I like this Buffalo team. They've blown out a team that should win their division (Seattle), beaten a top AFC contender (Jacksonville), and showed grit by coming from behind against the Raiders. They do look like the best team in the AFC East. Is that a compliment?

Bills -9.5

12. Denver @ Kansas City +9.5

Last week there was only one home dog, and here we already have two home dogs by over 9. I keep waiting for Denver to let down and lose. I can’t even hope that it is this week. KC really has no offense and their defense wont do anything to Denver. This game will be over by the end of the first quarter. I would take Denver -9.5 in the first half. Speaking of Denver’s offense, I wouldn’t believe everyone that Cutler was going to be this stud, because he looked like shit last year. Well, I am eating that shit. He is the real deal, and this offense can fly. I hope that someone figures out how to stop their offense at some point and they turn out to be a bust, but I won’t hold my breath.

Denver -9.5

The problem with asking this offense to slow down is that Brandon Marshall looks like the best receiver in the league right now. He catches everything thrown to him. Against the Saints secondary, which isn't that hard to ask, he looked like he was playing catch with Cutler. Speaking of Cutler, I'm impressed with the way he throws the ball. A lot of time there's no way the defender is going to get a hand in to knock the pass down because he throws so hard. He's like a young Brett Favre minus the Wrangler jeans.

I know the Saints offense is tough, so it's hard to question the defense yet, but they did allow both the Chargers and the Saints to have a shot to win the ballgame. I think they're safe against the Chiefs.

Denver -9.5

11. Houston @ Jacksonville -9

What is up with the Jaguars? They got their first win last week, at Indy none the less, but I don’t know how good or bad their offense really is. The defense isn’t the same either. Houston is terrible, but should they be getting 9 against a team that is struggling on both sides of the ball? Houston’s offense hasn’t been doing anything and they are already starting to get on Shaub. So far they have given up 31 and 38, but haven’t played at home yet. The Texans so far have faced Pitt defense and Tenn defense, this should be their easiest run yet. The Jags may find life in their offense again, against this defense, but I think Houston pulls some power from their post Ike home crowd, and keeps this one close. They will get a little something going with Slaton and Johnson (who hasn’t done anything yet) and they will put a lot of pressure on Garrard.

Texans +9

It's hard to gauge this Jacksonville team. We know they have the weapons to be a top team in the AFC, if not the league. With Indy looking soft, the Patriots minus Brady, and the Chargers off to a slow start, the time would be right for the Jags to make their move to the upper echelon but they haven't done that thus far. Last week's win at Indy was huge. If they had failed to win that game after how they controlled the ball, it would have pushed them down to 0-3 and deflated their morale. A come-from-behind win, on the road against Indy, was what this team needed to get back on track.

Again, though, another huge spread against the home team. I just don't see this one covering. Steve Slaton (whom I had riding the pine last week in fantasy) had a huge game and has everyone searching for him on the wire. Andre Johnson is yet to make himself be known this season. The Texans will have enough to keep it below two scores.

Texans +9

Playoff predictions

2008-08-18T13:34:00.000-07:00

Both Clay and Oz predict a Cowboys-Patriots match-up in Super Bowl XLIII

You’ve heard our division predictions. Now, it is time for the playoff predictions!

San Diego Clay:

Wild Card games:

Jacksonville over Pittsburgh, Indy over Cleveland

Minnesota over St Louis, New Orleans over Washington (I can’t believe I picked these teams, hahaha)

Divisional playoffs:

Dallas over Minn (I want to take Minn here, but I don’t know if we can count on Tavaris, plus I couldn’t have Minn playing New Orleans in the NFC Championship, could I?), New Orleans over Green Bay

San Diego over Jacksonville, New England over Indy

Conference Championships

Dallas over New Orleans

New England over San Diego (I can’t pick the Chargers until they actually beat this team in the playoffs)

Super Bowl New England over Dallas (That would be a fun super bowl…actually, that would be a fun championship weekend too)

Oz:
AFC Wild Card games: Indy over Jacksonville, Cleveland over Pittsburgh

Divisional Playoffs: San Diego over Indy, New England over Cleveland (wow, what a weekend THAT would be)

Championship game: New England over San Diego (obviously)

NFC Wild Card games: New Orleans over Philly, Minnesota over Green Bay

Divisional Playoffs: Dallas over Minnesota New Orleans over Seattle

Championship: Dallas over N.O.

Super Bowl: New England over Dallas

Make sure you join Clay and I during the season for weekly picks. Hilarity ensues. Basically we make fun of each other, people who are defenseless, and the players and teams we're going to gamble on during the forthcoming weekends.

The AFC West Preview

2008-08-18T13:24:00.000-07:00

The AFC West: Does any team besides San Diego break the .500 mark?

Oz:

Denver: What's up with Denver? I love coach Shanahan, but they seem to have disappeared from title contention in just a couple years. Is it that they're trying to get younger everywhere before they make a run? I like Jay "Chicken" Cutler. He's a good quarterback. He's smart, he's got good instincts, and strong arm. I think he can led this team to a playoff run, don't you?

I don’t, everyone loves this guy, but I haven’t seen it yet. I have not watched him play yet and thought, this is a championship QB…not even close. I don’t know how it got so bad so fast for Denver, but their defense couldn’t stop Ricky Williams after an ounce from rushing for a 100 yards last year. Their Oline has never had a ton of talent, they have just played within the system. Last year, they didn’t run like they used to, and they had some injury problems. I don’t know about them that much this year, but my homer Bronco fan friend thinks they will suck this year, so lets go with that.

Oz:

Kansas City: Obviously the worst team in this division. Do they scare anyone? I don't think so. I have no clue as to why they're not better than they are. Larry Johnson is one of the best backs in the

game. One down season can't strip him of that title, can it? As long as he doesn't carry the ball 500 times, he could stay healthy long enough to play a few more years. I swear this kid is going to be out of football by 28 if they keep with this workload. If this team were more balanced, they could win more games. But they're not. Who is their quarterback? Who plays wideout? Gonzalez is 50 years old. I guess the only option they do have is Johnson.

Seriously, and he carried the ball so much in his first few years, I think it took a toll. I still think he could be a premier back, but his line was terrible this year and it wont be any better this year. If the o line is shit, the offense isn’t doing anything, especially with a second year guy like Brodie Croyle…yep, that’s their QB. The defense hasn’t been a whole lot better. They are definitely a rebuilding project.

Oz:

Oakland: Think they can boost themselves ahead of KC so they won't be at the bottom this year? I saw the preseason game against San Francisco, well, bits of it. Who would watch an Oakland/San Fran preseason game? That would be about as fun as watching a postseason WNBA game. Darren McFadden looked strong. Subbing in and out with Justin Fargas will be a good deal for the rookie running back. JaMarcus Russell will be their starting QB. The Raiders defense isn't that bad. They could win 7 games this year, don't you think?

S.D.C.: I do. I am not sure about Russell yet, but I have high hopes for McFadden in the future. I think it is good that he doesn’t have to take the brunt of the carries, and this team definitely knows how to run the ball.

They are weak at wideout, but I think the running game will be enough to win some games behind some strong defensive efforts. This club is definitely improving. I don’t think they are quite there yet, but they will not come in dead last this year, and m

ake a bit more respectful run this year.

Oz: San Diego: Your team. Finally. Literally the last team we talk about. I'll throw a few questions out there and let you take the microphone and speak on this subject. How many more years do they have before they abandon their approach. What I mean is, if they don't beat the Patriots this year (they won't), what happens? Do they make moves? Do they rebuild? They're young, but they do have to make some changes if they can't get over the hump, no? Is Philip Rivers the answer? Is he a top QB in the league? Will your defensive players stop getting shot and/or killed?

S.D.C: Hahaha, well these are all questions that I don’t think anyone can answer before we see the final show. I don’t think there is any change in a approach needed, really. They changed all of their coaches las

tyear, and it took a while for everyone to get on the same page. After starting 1-3, they won 12 of 14, including beating the Colts without their three best players, and losing to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Then the Chargers lost a close battle where I think it is safe to say they outplayed the Pats, but couldn’t score a touchdown. Oh yeah, and the record holders for touchdowns in a season at their respective positions both weren’t playing…I’m just sayin’.

I am not sure about Phil yet, he had some tough times last year, but that is pretty normal with a new system. Norv has a history with young QBs, and I think after a year together, things should get better. The entire offense should flow better after a year, especially in the case of Chris Chambers who was great at the end of the season. Phil has shown flashes of great stuff at times, so I think he is capable…only time will tell, though. Everyone was calling for Norv and Rivers’ heads after the 1-3 start, but that ended pretty quickly.

They have a qood schedule this year, that should give them an easy division title, and setup a great playoffs. The Patriots are obviously good, but do I think they can stop LT? No. He has averaged 158 yards rushing and almost 200 total years against the Patriots since his rookie year and I think they were quite fortunate to be 18-1 instead of 17-1.

Oz: Blasphemy. That's like saying if Kennedy wasn't killed, the Vietnam war wouldn't have happened. Okay, maybe a stretch. However, you do have a point about him. The Patriots haven't been able to stop LT, and the Chargers have killed themselves a lot in those games. I do think the Chargers are the only legit threat to the Pats this year, but I definitely think this year in pivotal. If they can't get over the hump this year, how long can they wait. Brady is only 30.

S.D.C.: LT is 29 older in RB years, but he has been a master at avoiding contact as much as possible. I don’t think this is the last shot, but it is probably the best shot. If they don’t win this year, I don’t see any freaking out though because they don’t have expiring contracts or aging players, they are a young team, see them being here for a few years.

Oz: Predictions?

San Diego: 12-4

Denver 8-8

Oakland: 7-9

Kansas City: 5-11

AFC Playoff teams:

1. New England

2. San Diego

3. Indianapolis

4. Cleveland

5. Pittsburgh

6. Jacksonville

S.D.C.:

Chargers 13-3

Broncos 8-8

Raiders 6-10

Chiefs 5-11

Playoff teams?

Chargers

Patriots

Colts

Pittsburgh

Jaguars

Browns

Wow, we had the same teams, just a little bit different order, ha.

AFC South

2008-08-12T16:33:00.000-07:00

The AFC South: Clay is buying into Jacksonville. Oz? Not so much.

Oz: We all can guess who'll be at the top this year, but the toughest battle will be coming out unscathed here.

Houston: The bottom-feeder here. However, they are not too bad. Matt Schaub put up pretty good numbers last year, Andre Johnson is one of the league's top receivers, and the two have really meshed together. Their offensive line should be better this year than last and last year they gave up a third of what they gave up in sacks the previous year. A third! Mario Williams has shown flashes that he deserved the number one pick over Reggie Bush in 2006, and if Rosevelt Colvin plays at full health, the Texan defense won't be too bad. Dunta Robinson is a stud at cornerback.

S.D.C. I don’t think the line will be better this year. They used their first round pick on a Tackle, Duane Brown, who may be good, but he is raw and may not even start this year. They have two subpar running backs, which is not better then one good one. Their passing game was great last year, and I don’t see any reason for it to get worse, except that maybe they surprised everyone and they may key on the fact that they shouldn’t be able to run the ball. Their defense is ok, Mario Williams is a stud, but they do not have any depth and I don’t think they have enough playmakers.

Oz: Indianapolis: The question mark here is health. The key stat being that the players injured (Manning, Harrison, Freeney) are all top 3 at their position. Manning will most likely be fine, but how's his number one receiver? Is Reggie Wayne the man now (104 catches, 10 TD's last season)? Some people are saying the Colts are going to be down this year, but how so? They've got the second best q

uarterback in the game, a veteren line, two young playmakers (Wayne/Addai), and an above average defense. They should win this division. I don't think they win it at 13-3, but they'll win it.

S.D.C.: Agreed, they do not have a lot of depth on the O-line or D-line. If they stay healthy they are competing for the Super Bowl, but if they lose some key guys like last year, they won’t be able to keep up with the Patriots and Chargers. They also have a very tough schedule this year, playing Minn, GB, NE, SD, Pitt and of course Jax twice. Healthy, 14-2 wouldn’t surprise me a bit, but the lack of depth scares me.

Oz: Jacksonville: The only threat to the Colts dominance. Do you buy it? They're terrific defensively and apparently they can score, but they've never actually impressed me. I've never said to myself, "wow, Jacksonville is GOOD!" Have you? They're a smash-mouth team, which I like. Maurice Jones-Drew is a little shit. I love him. David Garrard is their quarterback. I don't know; I just don't buy into it. Can you sell me on these guys? Is this league competitive because none of the teams are really top tier teams besides the Colts?

S.D.C.: I do buy it.They have a great defense, and a great running game. They have a decent QB who stayed out of trouble last year, and he has JD to bail him out, which is huge. Their lack of play making receivers is a big deal. They got Jerry Porter who could be good, but may not show up…after that they have Reggie Williams and Troy Williamson. Garrard has a strong arm and Williamson is fast. If they can figure things out, they could be a little bit better there then last year. Then again, Williamson could continue to be a bust as well as Porter and they could be worse. They lost Marcus Stroud to Buffalo, which could hurt them pretty big on D, making their Dline young and shallow. They do, however, have a much easier sched then the Colts which will make their two games against each other huge. I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up at the top and compete in a stacked AFC, but they could look exactly the same as last year, which is just not quite good enough.

Oz: Tennessee: Say what you will about Vince Young's style of play, but the kid is a leader. He can put a team on his back and help them win the game. The problem is that he's got no one around him. The Titans signed Alge Crumpler this year and he should help if he can establish a solid relationship with Young. LenDale White is the running back. Do you think that Vince Young talks shit to White about the 2006 Rose Bowl? I definitely would. Back to the Titans. I think they're no better than third here but I do think they could beat any team in this division at least once.

S.D.C.: He is a leader, he just isn’t a great passer and has shit for receivers. The last three years the Titans have been 17th, 27th and 21st ranked offense in the league, and they didn’t do anything to get better. You are right Crumpler could help, but they have shit for receivers and I hope that VY talks shit all day long to a fat cocky Lendale White. The defense was great last year as long as Haynesworth was healthy, he was a beast. Getting franchised was smart for a guy with motivation issues because he has to play well again to get a new contract. I think they made the playoffs last year with some good D and an easy schedule. This year I don’t see them getting as many close wins. They fired Norm Chow for a lack of offense, but I have news, they aren’t going to be any better this year.

Oz: This is a tough division to pick. I really am not sold on any of these teams this year.

It is not as tough as I thought it might be, but it is tough in that an injury here or there could change everything. I think we have one super bowl contender, one team on the fringe of being good but not quite great, and two average teams that would do much better in a different division, but just don’t have quite enough guys.

Oz: Overall, I agree 100%. This division has one legit contender and another probable playoff team. Getting three teams out of this division will be extraordinarily tough, though. I doubt it happens.

Indianapolis: 11-5
Jacksonville: 10-6
Tennessee: 8-8
Houston: 6-10

S.D.C.:

Indianapolis: 12-4

Jacksonville: 11-5

Tennessee: 8-8

Houston: 8-8

I wanted to give Indy more wins, but the main question is this…can Indy stop a good offense in a final drive to win the game? And to me the answer is no.

AFC North

2008-08-11T15:30:00.000-07:00

Clay and I are back with a preview of the AFC North, which is possibly the toughest division in all of football.

AFC North Preview: Will the Browns finally overtake the Steelers at the top of the division?

Oz: Baltimore: Here's a team that's over the hill. They're trying to get younger, which is heading them down the right path in the next few years, but right now, it's about getting reps for the young guys. I expect the Ravens to work Joe Flacco into the mix at quarterback, especially if Kyle Boller struggles. Their inability to pass (mainly because you and I would be their best wideouts), though, only hinders Willis McGahee's production at running back. The defense isn't exactly stocked full of spring chickens, but Ed Reed and Ray Lewis anchor a tough unit.

S.D.C.: I agree with everything here. The defense really didn’t do much to get better, athlough health is the real key to getting better. Joe Flacco is going to run this ship, and he is not going to pull a Roethlisberger here because the team isn’t good enough around him. The O-line is all new, and they are going to miss Jonothan Ogden who retired. They aren’t the worst team in the NFL, but they should be the worst team in their conference.

Oz: The one thing I see coming out of Baltimore is them being a spoiler for a division foe. We all know how seemingly inferior teams within a division can be the toughest to play. I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a win that would be a crucial loss to Cleveland and Pittsburgh at the top of the division. What about Cleveland?

Cleveland: Here is the breakout year for the Cleveland Browns. Potent offense led by Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards; young/fast defense led by head coach Romeo Crennel. Is this the year the Steelers get pushed back to second fiddle? Can Derek Anderson have another 2007 (3787 yards passing, 29 TD’s)? When is Brady Quinn going to push him out? Ever? How’s Winslow’s knee? How much does Dante Stallworth add? In short, what's it going to take to get them over the hump?

S.D.C. All good questions, my friend. I think a lot of it depends on the OL. If they are as good or better then last year, then this offense will continue to fly. They did a lot in the off-season to try to improve this defense, and I think they will be better. Corey Williams and Shaun Rodgers will bolster this Dline and they have good athletes at LB. Are they good enough to overtake Pitt? Maybe they are. I doubt they sweep Pitt this year, but I think they give them a run for their money.

Oz: Not only do I think they'll sweep the Steelers, I guarantee they do. What’s up with the Bengals?

Cincy: I think they're no better than third in this division. They've got a great offense, but not-so-great defense and off-the-field troubles to boot. Just because a team can score doesn't mean they can win. The Bengals don't have a stud running back who can stay healthy. I like Rudi Johnson, but he screwed me last year in fantasy football. Kenny Watson is reliable, but not a great back. They'll split time and I think it will be more of a problem than a solution.

They are a mess. They didn’t do anything to improve their horrendous defense which is strange because they felt like they were close to getting over the hump. They won’t get there this year with a terrible defense and an injury prone RB. I still think they fly through the air, but like you said, it isn’t enough.

Oz: Pittsburgh: Listen to this five week stretch in weeks 10-14 for Pittsburgh: Indy, San Diego, Cincy, @ New England, Dallas. Big Ben is a good quarterback and they're always a good team physically. They seem to have responded well to second-year coach Mike Tomlin. That said, I don't think they're a top-tier team anymore. What I mean by that is they don't scare me into suggesting they could compete for a Super Bowl title. A division crown? Definitely, but no chance they make any ripples further down the line.

S.D.C.: I think Pitt is solid. Ben is poised to have a great year with Ward and Holmes, and Rashard Mendenhall should boost the running game. Their O-line has to stay healthy if they are going to run the ball, and Chris Kenoeatu has to show he can replace their lost leader, Alan Faneca (which I think he is capable of). They aren’t deep at OL, and that is probably their biggest question mark. They should be great against the run, and they have some athletic LB that compliment each other well. Their biggest problem is going to be their schedule, just as you mentioned. Other than what you mentioned, they have Jacksonville too. This team is definitely good, but I am not sure they can hold up with the elite, and because of their schedule they will either go into the playoffs as a super bowl contender or they won’t make it at all. They have to sweep Balt and Cincy, and at least split with Cle to have a shot which isn’t out of the question.

I think this is going to be a two horse race, and probably one of the most interesting of the year.

Oz: So prediction. I've got the Browns at the top of the division and scaring the shit out of someone in the first round, if not knocking them out. You hear me, Indianapolis? Too early to jump on? Remember what I said about Davidson in the NCAA tournament?

Cleveland: 11-5
Pittsburgh: 10-6
Cincinnati: 9-7
Baltimore: 7-9

Very competitive division.

S.D.C.: Well, unfortunately you aren’t going to win any originality points here with me because Mine looks exactly the same, only less wins for, well, everyone.

Browns 12-4
Pittsburgh 10-6
Cincinnati 6-10
Baltimore 5-11

I think the Browns upset Dallas to start the season, and they get on a roll to start. They get the Cowboys and Steelers in the first two weeks of the season, both at home…if they win those two they will cruise. @Baltimore, @Cincy, NYG, @wash…all winnable games. After playing at Jacksonville (who I think is stronger), they have Baltimore, Denver, @ Buffalo, Houston, all winnable games, before they play Indy with a full head of steam. They will lose their first matchup against Indy. I think they have the right schedule to put up a big number this year.

Patriots Preview

2008-08-06T17:06:00.000-07:00

Will Gillette Stadium continue to house the AFC's best team?

Bones's Completely Biased Patriots Preview

I don’t ever want to hear that sound again. I hear it every single time someone brings up Super Bowl XLII. Plaxico Burress smoked Ellis Hobbs to catch the game winning touchdown against the Patriots and that’s when I heard it. Every single Giants fan at the University of Phoenix Stadium went ape shit as I buried my head in my hands. But it was this one scream from a lady in the stands that caught my ears and made every other sound inaudible. It was the “holy shit, is this really happening, we’re going to beat the Patriots, what the fuck do I do?” scream. It was probably the same scream every single person watching the Super Bowl outside of New England let out. I hate that scream.

Let’s just cut to the chase and simply state that February 3^rd 2008 was easily the worst day of my life. You could force me to watch 300 puppies getting slaughtered and it would not be as bad as that night. In fact, I could write a novel about the entire day. The hours leading up to the game I had the reassuring thought there is no way they lose this game. They won fucking 18 games in a row! 18! And of course they just fucking roll over and get raped and lose. It was probably the only time in my life I literally considered killing myself … seriously. Right before kickoff any hardcore Patriot fan will tell you that something was not right in Phoenix that night. What happened to the explosive offense? Why was the offensive line as porous as the French army trying to defend against Hitler’s invasion? Why wasn’t Tom Brady showing any sort of emotion? How is Eli fucking Manning performing like he’s playing in the video game Madden on the rookie level? For the love of God why aren’t they putting them away? I could go on and on but that’s not the point of this article. The point is to remember that shit happens and when all is said and done, the Patriots are 0-0 going into 2008…and will forever be 18-1 … God I’m such a pessimist!

(For the record I am yet to watch the re-play or any highlights from that game. I would rather lock myself in a room and watch clips from the 9/11 attacks - at right - over and over than watch that game again.)

Going into the 2008 season there is really no reason to believe that the Pats will fall victim to the “Super Bowl hangover.” If you’re trying to tell me that they are not a playoff team then you are lying to yourself. In fact, after going undefeated last year in the regular season (the Patriots have one of the NFL’s easiest schedules this year) it is tough to even point out a game they could lose this year. However I do know that going undefeated two years in a row is extremely unlikely. Just like going 18-0 was…fuck! Here’s how I see things shaking out this year:

DEFENSE

Major losses: CB Asante Samuel, CB Randall Gay, LB Rosevelt Colvin, S Eugene Wilson

Major additions: LB Victor Hobson, CB Fernando Bryant, CB Jason Webster, S Tank Williams, * CB Terrence Wheatley, *CB Jonathon Wilhite, *LB Jerod Mayo, *LB Shawn Crable, *LB Bo Ruud, Defensive Guru Dom Capers

*=rookie

Gone is ball-hawking cornerback Asante Samuel who sought greener pastures (green as in $$) in Philadelphia. Losing Asante will be huge because there a few shutdown corners in the NFL today and I consider him one of them. Ellis Hobbs, who will be holding down one starting position, is not terrible but he isn’t exactly a Pro Bowl caliber corner. While he is fast and athletic, he often bites on play fakes and is always eager to make the big play. The Pats also lost nickel back Randall Gay who filled nicely into the role player position. To help counter these losses, the Pats brought in veteran Fernando Bryant from the Lions. Bryant does not bring the same type of playmaking abilities that Asante Samuel possessed but is the type of guy who will thrive in Belichick’s complex defensive scheme because of his experience. Rookies Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite bring athleticism and youth to the table but neither one of them had spectacular numbers playing at the collegiate level. Coupled with Jason Webster, these three corners figure to rotate in and out of the backfield filling in nicely for departed Randall Gay. I see Hobbs and Bryant as the starters come game time.

With the NFL’s “dirtiest player” Rodney Harrison returning, the safety position seems to be the strong point of the secondary. While he has lost a step and has never been a good coverage man, just his presence is still intimidating for receivers coming across the middle. Second year man Brandon Meriweather should have a better season than last now that he has had time to settle into the playbook. He beat out long time starter Eugene Wilson last year and rotated in with James Sanders. While Sanders has significantly improved his game both in coverage and tackling, I expect Meriweather to take over a majority of the FS duties. That is if they do not shift Meriweather over to CB which is a possibility. Expect Tank Williams to switch in and out with Harrison. Williams is a punishing player and at 6’2, 223 figures to provide even more toughness to the position. At camp he has been playing up close to the line and even playing some linebacker. He is versatile and Belichick is going to get everything he can out of him.

The Patriots have a defensive line that features All-World’s Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, and Richard Seymour, and is one of the best units in the league. Wilfork (right) is an absolute beast up front playing nose and Warren is athletic and versatile. Richard Seymour is healthy at camp for the first time in awhile. If he can avoid the injury bug this year he always figures to create a problem for opposing teams. His speed and strength are phenomenal and if need be, Jarvis Green fills in well, except when he’s trying to tackle Eli Manning on third-and-5 in the Super Bowl. This unit is the least of the Patriots worries.

If there is a position on the team that received an “extreme makeover”, it is the linebackers. Rosevelt Colvin could not overcome the injury he suffered last year and was released. While I did like Colvin’s speed and ability to rush the QB, he is replaceable. Taking his spot outside will be the physical freak of nature Adalius Thomas. Playing ILB last year was a change for him and learning a new defense really showed at times. Now that he is switching back to the outside, I think we will see why we signed him for big bucks last year from Baltimore. At the other end is Mike Vrabel, a veteran leader. While not the quickest of the bunch he still has it in him to make smart decisions. Both Vrabel and Thomas can play inside if need be. On the inside Tedy Bruschi returns for another title run. While Bruschi (right) is only a mere shadow of what he used to be before suffering a stroke, he like Vrabel has the smarts and instincts to be a playmaker. I do see his role diminishing a little bit more this year as rookie Jerod Mayo patiently waits in the shadows. At 6’1 and 242lbs, Mayo is athletic, fast, and provides the youthfulness this LB corps has lacked for so long. While it may take a couple of games for him to “get it,” I see Mayo turning out to be a good player for the Pats for a long time. Victor Hobson came from the Jets and provides the experience and toughness needed to play inside. Expect to see rookie Shawn Crable and 3rd year man Pierre Woods get shuffled into the mix from time to time in an already deep linebacking squad. Junior Seau is yet to make a decision on his return to the team but like Bruschi provides veteran leadership and flexibility.

Perhaps the most overlooked aspect of the defense this year is the teams signing of defensive guru and secondary coach Dom Capers. Capers is a long time friend of Belichick and is a known master when it comes to the secondary. He will prove to be a very important piece to a coaching staff that has lacked a defensive mind since the departure of Eric Mangini. With Capers on board, it will also allow Belichick to be more flexible and focus on other aspects of the team.

Overall:

On paper it seems like the Pats have taken a step back this year on the defensive side of the ball. In the past two seasons, the Patriots secondary has let up game winning drives when it counted the most: the 2007 AFC Championship in Indy and SB XLII. Watching this unit will be interesting moving forward. But if Bill Belichick has taught us fans anything it is his ability to deal with losing playmakers and finding the right role players to fill the void (see Ty Law). I do think the Pats have a more improved group of linebackers than last year and the defensive line still remains solid. The biggest questions will be how the cast of Samuel’s “replacements” will perform and can the defense win a game on the line when it matters most.

OFFENSE

Major losses: TE Kyle Brady, WR Troy Brown, WR Donte Stallworth

Major additions: WR Sam Aiken, RB LaMont Jordan, *QB Kevin O’Connell, *WR Matt Slater

What the Patriots offense achieved last year was magical. The record-breaking offense was impressive to watch and there is nothing to suggest it will be any different this year (unless Tom Brady gets injured which will result in the immediate suicide of myself). Tom Brady put up historic numbers and had one of the best single season performances by an NFL quarterback – ever. He passed for almost 5,000 yards and threw 50 touchdowns on the season! In the divisional playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Brady had a mind-numbing game. He set the NFL record for completion percentage in a single game (92.9%) with 26 of 28 completions for 263 yards and 3 touchdowns. Let those numbers just sit in your head for a minute. That’s the type of season this guy had. At one point during a commercial break I remember just staring down into my beer trying to figure out what the hell was going on. Seriously, a completion percentage of 92.9%? What…the…fuck! If you get ambitious, go to Wikipedia and look up Tom Brady. At the bottom is a little paragraph about all of his records and achievements, simply amazing. The day this guy hangs them up is going to be the day I sob like a little girl. However, it sucks for the rest of the NFL because he is not retiring anytime soon. Barring injury, Tom Brady should have another banner year. The real question here is who is going to come in from Brady if he goes down? Matt Cassel is now going into his fifth NFL season and unless he shows he can perform and be a serviceable NFL QB, I think we may see a changing of the guard. 2^nd year man Matt Guttierez will see lots of playing time this pre-season after showing some promise last year. He had a limited playbook last year and now it is his time to show us he can hang with the big boys. Do I think he will beat out Cassel? Ultimately no, but it will be interesting. Rookie QB Kevin O’Connell (pictured at right, who is probably even more handsome than Brady! Now that I think about it, the Patriots may have the most handsome QB squad in the entire league) was brought in to babysit the number three spot and learn the playbook. In other words, if Brady goes down you might as well throw the towel in and make my funeral arrangements.

Randy Moss. That’s all I really need to say. Last year he showed us why he is the best receiver in the league and why he will continue to be. While I don’t expect him to catch 23 TD’s again, I do not expect him to slack off or become a non-factor. As long as he is on the field, the Patriots have a chance of winning. Wes Welker had a phenomenal year last year and figures to give teams headaches again this year. He is quick, elusive, and has some of the best hands I’ve ever seen. The biggest question at the WR position is who will take over the number three spot? Jabar Gaffney is a younger version of Troy Brown and has the ability to make the big play while defenses are focused in on Welker and Moss. Right behind him his special teams ace Kelley Washington who also figures to be in the mix. The biggest factor in this squad is the role of Chad Jackson. Drafted two years ago in the second round, Jackson is naturally gifted with blazing speed and agility. He has been injured the past two seasons and it is do or die for him this year. He needs to prove he can be another deep threat for Brady if Moss (at right) is not available. All eyes are on him to step up and show us he knows how to utilize the gifts he was given. Free-agent Sam Aiken has had a monster camp and is also vying for a role in an already loaded receiving corp. As a side note, Troy Brown’s career is still up in the air. He was released earlier in the year and has been seeking a contract from someone. Whether the Patriots re-sign him or bring him in as a coach, it will be sad not to see number 80 running around on the field.

Keeping the tight ends healthy seems to be the theme every year for the Patriots. Ben Watson has great hands and can really open up the middle of the field. He is quick, strong, and gives linebackers fits. While his blocking is not as solid as some of the other tight ends, when he is healthy he is a major threat. David Thomas has also had his share of injuries after showing promising signs in the 2006 playoffs. He also has great hands and if healthy should contribute immediately to the team.

This year I believe you will see a rushing attack that will be utilized more often than last year. Laurence “Kool-Aid” Maroney will be in his third year and should be well adjusted for his starter’s role. Many people criticized him last year for not being tough enough and for dancing rather than running east/west. For his first year being the featured back I think he handled it well. He did not put up stellar numbers (835yds, 6 TD) but you also need to take into account that the Patriots were primarily a passing team. He played extremely well down the stretch when teams were starting to key in on Moss and the passing game and had a great performance in the playoffs. He is healthy in camp this year and is no longer plagued by the shoulder injury he suffered last year. Expect big numbers from Maroney this year. Adding to the rushing attack is veteran Kevin Faulk. Dubbed by me as Mr. Reliable, Faulk still has juice in the tank to be a major threat out of the backfield. As a third down back he always does something special to get that extra yard and has bailed the Patriots out of many games throughout his career. To backup Maroney is bruiser Sammy Morris and recently acquired LaMont Jordan. Before suffering a chest injury in the middle of the season, Morris was having a banner year and proved to be an efficient back in tough yardage situations. LaMont Jordan was brought in from Oakland as an insurance policy and may or may not make the final roster. However, do not be surprised if the Pats keep all three backs and rotate all of them in throughout games in specific situations. Rounding out the backfield are FB’s Heath Evans and Kyle Eckel who provide the Pats with an option for those tough yards. Both of them figure to see limited action during the year.

The offensive line will be the biggest question mark for the offense going into 2008. Line coach Dante Scarnecchia is a genius and often gets more out of his players, especially ones that are not your prototypical linemen size. Anchoring the left side of the line are Pro Bowlers LT Matt Light, LG Logan Mankins, and C Dan Koppen. While Matt Light is an experienced veteran and is an above average tackle, he is extremely inconsistent in play and does not fare well against speed rushers (see SB 42). Logan Mankins is a beast and is panning out to be one of the best guards in the league. At 6’4, 310lbs, he sets the tempo for the line and continually frustrates his opponents with his toughness. Center Dan Koppen has been solid at his position for 6 years now and the BC alum figures to be just as steady this year. The right side of line is where there are the most questions. On the right returns RG Stephen Neal and RT Nick Kaczur. Stephen Neal has proved to be a serviceable NFL guard. The former wrestler is average at best but with no depth at the position, he seems to be the favorite for the position this season. RT is going to be a problem for the Pats this year. Nick Kaczur has been mediocre at best. When he’s not missing assignments, you can find him taking OxyContin (pictured at left) in the parking lot in his car. In all seriousness Kaczur may lose his starting job this year to big man Ryan O’Callaghan. He is a monstrous figure at 6’7, 330lbs and for his size, is very athletic. He has had a pretty decent camp, too.

To round out the offensive side of the ball is the special teams unit. 3^rd year kicker Stephen Gostkowski returns to handle the duty of field goal kicker. Last year he was 21-24 in FG attempts and shows tremendous leg strength, especially during kickoffs. Many people questioned Belichick’s faith in Gostkowski when the Patriots decided to go for it on 4^th and 13 in the Super Bowl instead of kicking a 48 yard field goal. I, too, questioned the decision and made me wonder if Belichick had faith in his accuracy. However, upon thinking about this more, can anyone really blame Belichick for wanting to go for it? When you have one of the most explosive offenses in NFL history, why would you settle for 3 points when you could get 7? Belichick plays to win games not lose them.

Overall:

Barring a catastrophic injury to Tom Brady (right with head coach Bill Belichick), the Patriots offense seems to be in for another big year. With few significant losses and the emergence of a deep receiving corp coupled with a potent running attack, there is little reason to believe this group will take a step back. Having the NFL’s easiest schedule can’t hurt the Patriots either. Perhaps the biggest question for the entire year is how will the Patriots respond to their devastating Super Bowl loss? Can they repeat the offensive brilliance they had last year or have the Giants provided the blueprint to stop Brady and company? Last year, Foxboro was a media circus – questions about Randy Moss and his character, coupled with spygate allegations and going undefeated really took a toll on the psyche of the team. With the media finally focusing on another NFL team and stories (Brett Favre anyone?), it has been a relatively quiet pre-season in Foxboro for the first time in a couple of years. Personally, my gut tells me it will be a special year. I’ll end this preview with a quote from one Patriot’s fans thoughts on this upcoming season:

“People who think the Pats were good last year haven't seen anything yet. Now we're pissed! Didn't anybody learn anything from that old Jim Croce song? "You don't tug on Superman's cape, you don't spit into the wind, you don't pull the mask off that ole' Lone Ranger and you don't mess around with Belichick" The Giants fucked it up for everybody next year. We probably would have taken it easy on people if we won the Superbowl. But now 18-0 will be a major disappointment. We not only have to be undefeated but people need to die on the field while we are playing them. Literally die.”

My prediction: 13-3

I’m not predicting how they’ll finish. I just don’t do that.

(Ed’s note: When pressed, he did offer this: “They’re going to finish third in the AFC East”)

The Patriots open their 2008 campaign in Thursday's opening preseason game at Gillette Stadium against the Baltimore Ravens.

AFC East Preview

2008-08-06T14:11:00.000-07:00

AFC East Preview: The Division of Extraordinary (looking) Patriots Quarterbacks

San Diego Clay and I are back with another preview of your favorite football divisions.

Oz: Buffalo - Buffalo will probably make the biggest leap this year in the AFC East - maybe even the whole league. They're not a terrible team. Marshawn Lynch was one of the best rookies in the NFL last year and should improve. As a Pats fan, he's a scary player to have to see twice a year. Who was it that predicted the Bills would go to the playoffs this year? Either way, he's wrong. They'd make the playoffs if they played in the NFC, that's for sure.

S.D.C.: I agree, same thing as last year actually, although they also benefit from playing in a shitty division. The problem I see is that they look the same to me as last year. They were really conservative on offense and they basically couldn’t score enough to win. Their defense was great, Lynch is good (I had so much trouble deciding between Lynch and Grant for my keeper and I basically picked Grant because I think Buffalo’s offense sucks again) but is Trent Edwards the guy? I don’t know. They installed a West Coast offense this year, so we will see how Trent does with this, because if they can score, they can win. Of course not the division, but they can shoot for a wild card.

Oz: I'm definitely stealing Lynch from you when it's my turn to pick. I agree the Bills will be good and can SHOOT for a wild-card, but the conference is too tough. One team comes out of this division. Let’s go down to South Beach.

Miami - Miami is awful. They lost their best player (Jason Taylor), they do not have a quarterback that's any good, and Ronnie Brown can't do anything without anyone blocking for him, so he's useless. This is the least scary team in the whole entire conference.

S.D.C.: Speaking of not looking better. They clearly don’t care about this year. Last year they struggled to find a competent QB, and this year no one cares because they know they are terrible. They will be trying to figure out which guy, Chad Henne or John Beck, is the future of their organization, and probably lose most of their games. The total for wins is 5.5…I like the under. Their best bet for wins are Oak, KC, SF, Ari, Seattle and NYJ (sorry Gregg), and to tell you the truth, every one of those teams is better. The Chiefs won’t care about winning either, but still, can they win 6 of those 7 games? No way.

Oz: I agree. No way that the Dolphins win five games this year, nevermind the over. I like the list of teams they could beat and I disagree with you. Every one of those teams is better than the Dolphins. They're letting Parcells cook the dinner, but his ingredients are shitty. Let’s head to Foxboro.

New England - One of the top three teams in the NFL. Probably poised to make another Super Bowl run. Two years in a row, the defense has had 4-point leads with less than three minutes left and allowed the other teams to score a game-winning touchdown. What's to stop that from happening again this year? Is the offense a moot point if the defense can't make stops when it matters? Will the Patriots fans be heartbroken again this year? With the NFL's easiest schedule, is there a chance of going undefeated again?

S.D.C.: Are you going to use this preview as an excuse to run photos of Tom Brady looking handsome?

Oz: Yes. There’s no way I’m not using GQ pictures, either.

S.D.C.: I don’t see undefeated, especially playing at San Diego and at Indianapolis, not to mention this league is not conducive to undefeated teams. Either way, they are good. Their offense alone will win most of their games, and they are probably going to have to. Belichick seems to always get more out of his defense, but that has been their downfall the last two years, like you mentioned. Their win total is 12.5 and I think they win 14 because they are really good and have an easy schedule. No one in this division is beating them, that is for sure. They could lose to every “good” team they play and still get 13 wins. Undefeated? I don’t think so. Super Bowl? Interesting stat, the Pats have ended the Charger’s season two years in a row, and Brady has thrown 6 total interceptions in those two games combined.

Oz: 14 wins sounds pretty appropriate here. There's no way they lose to anyone within the division. The defense, I think, will be a little stronger than what most people think, especially at defensive back. With one of the best defensive lines in the league (and a, finally, healthy Richard Seymour), the pressure is enough to help the secondary. Obviously, Patriots fans won't have to worry about handsome Tom Brady and the offense. The offense can't expect him to throw 50 touchdowns this year. Maybe 60? What should be expected of Laurence Maroney? He's a third year guy who is good but hasn't made "the leap" yet. Should we be worried?

What about the rivals to the south?

New York Jets - What's going on the Mangini and his boys? They could legitimately go 10-6 and miss the playoffs. They could also go 6-10 and not surprise anyone. Who is their quarterback? Kellen Clemens? I'd expect Thomas Jones to have a better season this year behind a pretty good and young offensive line. Hopefully Mangini doesn't cry to league officials when the Patriots beat them 63-6 at the Meadowlands in a month.

S.D.C.: Jones will have a better year this year, but the Jets? I don’t know. I think they are the third best team in this division. Their defense gave up an average of 28 points per game, but that is skewed from the Patriots. Then again, their offense managed only 13 points per game. That is terrible and I don’t think Kellen Clemens is the answer…Brett Favre maybe? They still don’t win more games than they lose with Favre running the show.

Oz: I agree. Alright then --

Let's roll with the prediction for the east.

There's no way the Patriots don't come out on top of the AFC east. There's a better chance of Gisele knocking on my door right now. They'll win six division games. They're the most explosive offense we've ever seen, the quarterbacks are all ridiculously handsome, and their defense got healthier at the line, and younger at linebacker.

Otherwise, we're looking at a fight for second and third, with probably Buffalo coming out on top of the Jets for second in the division. In the basement is Miami.

New England: 14-2
Buffalo: 9-7
New York Jets: 6-10
Miami: 2-14

S.D.C.: I totally agree here just a little bit different on my records

Pats 14-2
Bills 8-8
Jets 6-10
Dolphins 3-13

Coming tomorrow: A completely biased debut column from Bones in form of a 2008 New England Patriots preview

A completely disinterested NFC West Preview

2008-08-04T13:46:00.000-07:00

Clay and I are here to bring you another installment of the 2008 NFL football preview!

The NFC West: Does Alex Smith smell like cabbage?

Oz: Arizona - We've been saying for years that Arizona is going to make the leap from year to year, but guess what? It never, ever happens! They have talent on offense at every skill position. The Cardinals even have two pretty solid quarterbacks. What's the deal here? Is Edgerrin James pissed he went to Arizona instead of staying in Indy? Even if they do well this year, Anquan Boldin said he's leaving when his contract is up. Apparently there is great morale in Glendale.

S.D.C.: Yeah, they do say that every year, and I am sure they are saying it this year…I don’t buy it. The offense will do better than last year, because they were very inconsistent last year (injuries to both QB didn’t help). The defense won’t do enough, though. I am not sold on either QB really. If you give Warner time and space, he is one of the best passers in the game, but when the pocket starts to collapse, he looks like John Rocker stumbling into the middle of the gay pride parade in San Francisco.

I do think Edge has a better year this year, regardless of how many wins this team gets.

Oz: St. Louis - The Rams were terrible last year, but they were injured. They're a little bit old, but they've got talent offensively and should be able to rebound. I don't see them winning the division, but they'll win more games than they did last year. Being in the NFC West more or less guarantees you three wins, no?

S.D.C. I hate this division. There is not one legitimately good team. There hasn’t been for a while. Seattle had a couple of good years, but I still think that was just perpetuated by the horrendousness of the division and the NFC as a whole during that period (not that much has changed). St Louis should be decent. There isn’t a whole lot of defense in this division either, but their offense will be consistent and their defense will do just enough to put them ahead of at least two of the pitiful teams in this division. Their receivers are getting old, but hopefully Bulger stays healthy and helps improve the team from last year.

Oz: Seattle - The obvious favorite. I've said this before, but I hate the Seahawks. They run a terribly boring offense, they've never really impressed me. How much of them winning so often in the past five years is because they play in the weaker conference? I mean, if they played in the AFC, would they win more than seven games a year? Seriously, put them in the AFC North. They win three games tops in that league.

S.D.C. I know, I know, we are so bitter about this conference. We joked before writing about the NFC South, but every team in that division (Atlanta doesn’t count as a team) is better then every team in this division. Seattle is probably the best team in this division because they are the only team that has a defense. If they stay healthy, they should win the division because they are well coached and take care of the ball. They will score just enough to win. SF has had their number the last couple of years, and ST Louis should be better, so they are no lock, but I think they do the most with what they have, and we all know defense wins in the NFL.

Oz: San Francisco - Are Alex Smith's days numbered? He's not a good football player. He played at Utah. What a bad year of drafting that was. Do you think the 49ers are still pissed Leinart went back for his senior year? I would be. Do you realize their best player (Frank Gore) is definitely leaving them the first chance he gets? Do you realize their #1 receiver is Isaac Bruce and he's 68 years old?

S.D.C.:

Wow.

Ok, I guess I will write about them. Alex Smith has small hands and smells like cabbage, Gore is studly, their defense has been consistent but they can’t do anything on offense. They have been incredibly weak at receiver over the years and they don’t have good enough pass protection for a shitty QB with small hands. They have also been one of those teams people keep expecting to improve and break through, but they took a step back last year. I don’t think they make the jump until they get a capable QB, but that is just me. If Gore stays healthy and the defense plays well enough, they could do some damage. Many teams have won without a QB doing the work, but I don’t know if this team is capable of that.

I am sorry, I didn’t do research for this league…I just don’t care. On a more interesting note, I can’t wait to watch Manny Ramirez and Jeff Kent play together. The Dodgers are notorious for getting players that don’t fit together in the clubhouse. They always have a lot of talent but under perform because they don’t get along (they are the west coast equivalent of the Mets). Now they just went out and got another one of those guys. Granted, I am pissed the Padres have to play against him 15 times a year, but I look forward to Kent making some Jamaican joke and Manny calling him a stupid cracker.

Oz: Overall? Well, it may sound like I'm going backwards here a bit, but I think Arizona steps it up a bit and challenges Seattle for the division.

Seattle: 11-5
Arizona: 10-6
St. Louis: 7-9
San Francisco: 4-12

S.D.C. I do not agree about the Cardinals. They should actually have a solid offense, but I think this is another division of mediocrity. I don’t know if the O-line does better, or the defense, but they were a pretty popular pick last year to do better and they didn’t. Granted, they had a lot of injuries. It is hard to pick the team that we be less bad than the rest. I also think no team from this division wins more than 10 games.

St Louis 10-6
Seattle 8-8
Arizona 8-8
San Fran 7-9

I don’t know, I am guessing here. I really don’t know much about these teams.

Oz: Good job going out on a limb here. The Rams could make a run if they stay healthy, which they didn't do last season. So we're conflicted here.

As we conclude the NFC, who are you playoffs teams?

My division winners: Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans, Seattle
My wild card teams: Philadelphia, Green Bay

S.D.C.:

1. Cowboys
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. St Louis
5. Minnesota
6. Redskins

This isn’t going out on much of a limb here is it, pretty close to last year’s playoffs? I could easily replace GB and Minn. I had trouble keeping TB out of there too for some reason. I think Carolina could make their way in also and it wouldn’t surprise me. Of course Philly and NY could be there too. I think the West is a one team division, the East is a two team division, and I think both GB and Minn make it in. I don’t think three teams will come from the East.

Oz: Isn't it just incredible how awful the entire NFC is? There re 16 teams, none of whom are better than the top three in the AFC. Just saying. Then again, this was said last year before David Tyree made the best catch in the history of the NFL. I'm still very bitter. Thanks, Sports Illustrated, for bringing it up on the cover of this week's issue.

Join us tomorrow for the beginning of the AFC previews!

The NFC South

2008-07-31T17:23:00.000-07:00

THE NFC North: Hopefully Reggie Bush is more concerned with playing running back than playing with Kim Kardashian's ass

S.D.C.: I have decided this whole division comes down to running backs.

Oz: Oh, you decided this, huh? Well, I've decided that the NFC South doesn't even deserve a playoff spot.

New Orleans - Does the addition of Jeremy Shockey make the Saints contenders? Was last year just an aberration? Is Reggie Bush more concerned with Kim Kardashian's ass and being a celebrity than being a superstar in the NFL?

S.D.C.: Shockey will do well here, and he will help the offense, but he won’t make them contenders unless Duece McAllister is healthy. He came back from one knee injury and looked good, lets hope he can do it again. I think last year was an aberration, and I think this team is good. I haven’t seen their schedule, but I think they have a solid year. I am glad that my Chargers play their road game in London instead of New Orleans, that is a steal.

Oz: The good news for New Orleans is that they don't play any tough games all season except for San Diego, and that game is in London, which could go either way. This year will be the test year to see if it was last year or the year before that was a hoax. I agree on McAllister. It's going to be tough to come back from a second surgery. Because Reggie Bush hasn't fulfilled his big-play potential, Deuce is a crucial part of seeing that come to fruition.

The Saints should be better defensively, and will benefit from not having such lofty expectations cast on them this season. They just weren't ready - or used to being called legit contenders - yet.

Carolina - Does a healthy Jake Delhomme make the Panthers credible again? For God's sake, they went to the Super Bowl four years ago!

S.D.C.: Key word there was “four.” Delhomme to me is one of those guys that throws the ball up in the air and when his receivers are coming down with it, he looks good, but that doesn’t always happen. Although they have a ton of receivers this year. We all know Steve Smith is a stud if he doesn’t blow a hammy, after that we have Muhsin Muhammad, DJ Hackett and Dwayne Jarrett. I think this should help Delhomme and Steve Smith a lot.

Once again, who knows if they will be able to run the ball. Deangelo Williams hasn’t shown he can handle a full load, and Jonathan Stewart is unproven, but I think he helps DeAngelo out. They should be a good combo.

Oz: What I've always liked about Delhomme is that he's a competitor. There's a great clip of him when, after throwing the touchdown pass in the Super Bowl against the Patriots to get the lead, when he's mouthing off to Rodney Harrison. It wasn't him being a piece of crap (like, ahem, Phil Rivers against the Colts in the playoffs last season), it was Delhomme being a fiery competitor. I liked that.

The Panthers should be solid, but they're not spectacular anywhere, with the exception of Steve Smith, who'll probably catch another 85 balls this season. Right now, I see them as a .500 team.

Tampa Bay - They made the playoffs last year, but can you name five players on their roster? Is Chris Simms really a good pro quarterback? He's got the tools, but seriously? I'm at a loss for words for this division.

S.D.C.: Haha, and what’s up with Jeff Garcia? He tells us he likes women and parades around with hot super models, but does anyone really buy it? Earnest Graham stepped in for Cadillac last year and did really well. He got rewarded with a contract and a perennial starter to chase, haha. Warrick Dunn comes and is sort of given the starting job. Graham should challenge and I think it will be interesting to see how this plays out. We can’t forget Michael Bennett there too, and Cadillac should be back around mid-season…maybe. Joey Galloway is old, but he had a great year last year with our man Jeff, and behind him is a plethora of receivers all competing for field time. Ike Hilliard is the obvious choice, but Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall will take a shot along with Antonio Bryant and Dexter Jackson. They won’t be the best receiving core in the world, or the NFC North for that matter, but they have guys to work with, and we know how Jeff likes to work with guys.

Oz: It's funny you mention Jeff Garcia because I saw him on the NFL All Access on NFL Network (best channel on TV, with the possible exception of National Geographic) and he just does not fit the part of Pro Bowl quarterback with supermodel Playmate wife. Do you think she befriended him thinking he was a gay fashion designer and thought that she'd like a gay shopping buddy? Either way, he might be my idol.

The Bucs have been pretty inconsistent the last few years. They went from winning 11 games to winning four then winning nine last year, so they're tough to predict. You're right about Cadillac. They need him on the field to be successful.

Atlanta - Worst division in football? Let's debate that. Will Michael Turner make any difference here? How long before Matt Ryan takes over at quarterback and starts fighting dogs?

S.D.C.: Hahahaha, I love it. I don’t know if I can say worst division because all three teams above Atlanta are solid. I don’t think any have a shot at the NFC Championship, but they are all tough. I don’t think Turner makes a difference, I think he benefitted from coming in when LT was out. When he got more playing time then a carry here and there he was pretty average. We will see of course, but I don’t have a ton of faith in him. Should be interesting to see how they work Norwood in with him too.

I think Atlanta was talking about going after Chris Simms, although I could be making that up. The truth is, Atlanta is terrible. They can’t throw the ball, they can barely run the ball and their defense sucks. They aren’t trying to win this year, so I guess going out and getting a QB when you used your #2 pick on a QB doesn’t make sense. I always wonder, though, how a clearly terrible team handles a rookie QB that they just picked up in the top 10. Do you start him right away and risk him getting beat up and never really recovering from being really bad? Or do you sit him behind a vet and give him a couple of years to learn and rebuild the team? I feel like the second is the safest personally. Chris Redman though?

Oz: There's no way Atlanta finishes out of the basement this season, but as long as they continue to make the right choices via free agency (Turner) and the draft (Ryan and USC OT Sam Baker), they'll be okay. I saw let Ryan take his lumps like the Colts did with Peyton Manning. Why the hell not, right? He's tough, he played all four seasons at Boston College, he's a smart player, strong arm, good decision-maker. I say Ryan is a starter by week six.

Maybe not though. Let's not forget, Clay, that Chris Redman was a hell of a prospect coming out of high school.

Prediction:

S.D.C.:

New Orleans: 11-5

Tampa Bay: 9-7

Carolina: 7-9

Atlanta: 3-13

Oz:

New Orleans: 10-6

Carolina: 8-8

Tampa Bay: 7-9

Atlanta: 3-13

Next Up: NFC West