Playoff predictions

Both Clay and Oz predict a Cowboys-Patriots match-up in Super Bowl XLIII

You’ve heard our division predictions. Now, it is time for the playoff predictions!

San Diego Clay:

Wild Card games:

Jacksonville over Pittsburgh, Indy over Cleveland

Minnesota over St Louis, New Orleans over Washington (I can’t believe I picked these teams, hahaha)

Divisional playoffs:

Dallas over Minn (I want to take Minn here, but I don’t know if we can count on Tavaris, plus I couldn’t have Minn playing New Orleans in the NFC Championship, could I?), New Orleans over Green Bay

San Diego over Jacksonville, New England over Indy

Conference Championships

Dallas over New Orleans

New England over San Diego (I can’t pick the Chargers until they actually beat this team in the playoffs)

Super Bowl New England over Dallas (That would be a fun super bowl…actually, that would be a fun championship weekend too)

Oz:
AFC Wild Card games: Indy over Jacksonville, Cleveland over Pittsburgh

Divisional Playoffs: San Diego over Indy, New England over Cleveland (wow, what a weekend THAT would be)

Championship game: New England over San Diego (obviously)

NFC Wild Card games: New Orleans over Philly, Minnesota over Green Bay

Divisional Playoffs: Dallas over Minnesota New Orleans over Seattle

Championship: Dallas over N.O.

Super Bowl: New England over Dallas

Make sure you join Clay and I during the season for weekly picks. Hilarity ensues. Basically we make fun of each other, people who are defenseless, and the players and teams we're going to gamble on during the forthcoming weekends.

The AFC West Preview

The AFC West: Does any team besides San Diego break the .500 mark?

Oz:

Denver: What's up with Denver? I love coach Shanahan, but they seem to have disappeared from title contention in just a couple years. Is it that they're trying to get younger everywhere before they make a run? I like Jay "Chicken" Cutler. He's a good quarterback. He's smart, he's got good instincts, and strong arm. I think he can led this team to a playoff run, don't you?

I don’t, everyone loves this guy, but I haven’t seen it yet. I have not watched him play yet and thought, this is a championship QB…not even close. I don’t know how it got so bad so fast for Denver, but their defense couldn’t stop Ricky Williams after an ounce from rushing for a 100 yards last year. Their Oline has never had a ton of talent, they have just played within the system. Last year, they didn’t run like they used to, and they had some injury problems. I don’t know about them that much this year, but my homer Bronco fan friend thinks they will suck this year, so lets go with that.

Oz:

Kansas City: Obviously the worst team in this division. Do they scare anyone? I don't think so. I have no clue as to why they're not better than they are. Larry Johnson is one of the best backs in the

game. One down season can't strip him of that title, can it? As long as he doesn't carry the ball 500 times, he could stay healthy long enough to play a few more years. I swear this kid is going to be out of football by 28 if they keep with this workload. If this team were more balanced, they could win more games. But they're not. Who is their quarterback? Who plays wideout? Gonzalez is 50 years old. I guess the only option they do have is Johnson.

Seriously, and he carried the ball so much in his first few years, I think it took a toll. I still think he could be a premier back, but his line was terrible this year and it wont be any better this year. If the o line is shit, the offense isn’t doing anything, especially with a second year guy like Brodie Croyle…yep, that’s their QB. The defense hasn’t been a whole lot better. They are definitely a rebuilding project.

Oz:

Oakland: Think they can boost themselves ahead of KC so they won't be at the bottom this year? I saw the preseason game against San Francisco, well, bits of it. Who would watch an Oakland/San Fran preseason game? That would be about as fun as watching a postseason WNBA game. Darren McFadden looked strong. Subbing in and out with Justin Fargas will be a good deal for the rookie running back. JaMarcus Russell will be their starting QB. The Raiders defense isn't that bad. They could win 7 games this year, don't you think?

S.D.C.: I do. I am not sure about Russell yet, but I have high hopes for McFadden in the future. I think it is good that he doesn’t have to take the brunt of the carries, and this team definitely knows how to run the ball.

They are weak at wideout, but I think the running game will be enough to win some games behind some strong defensive efforts. This club is definitely improving. I don’t think they are quite there yet, but they will not come in dead last this year, and m

ake a bit more respectful run this year.

Oz: San Diego: Your team. Finally. Literally the last team we talk about. I'll throw a few questions out there and let you take the microphone and speak on this subject. How many more years do they have before they abandon their approach. What I mean is, if they don't beat the Patriots this year (they won't), what happens? Do they make moves? Do they rebuild? They're young, but they do have to make some changes if they can't get over the hump, no? Is Philip Rivers the answer? Is he a top QB in the league? Will your defensive players stop getting shot and/or killed?

S.D.C: Hahaha, well these are all questions that I don’t think anyone can answer before we see the final show. I don’t think there is any change in a approach needed, really. They changed all of their coaches las

tyear, and it took a while for everyone to get on the same page. After starting 1-3, they won 12 of 14, including beating the Colts without their three best players, and losing to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Then the Chargers lost a close battle where I think it is safe to say they outplayed the Pats, but couldn’t score a touchdown. Oh yeah, and the record holders for touchdowns in a season at their respective positions both weren’t playing…I’m just sayin’.

I am not sure about Phil yet, he had some tough times last year, but that is pretty normal with a new system. Norv has a history with young QBs, and I think after a year together, things should get better. The entire offense should flow better after a year, especially in the case of Chris Chambers who was great at the end of the season. Phil has shown flashes of great stuff at times, so I think he is capable…only time will tell, though. Everyone was calling for Norv and Rivers’ heads after the 1-3 start, but that ended pretty quickly.

They have a qood schedule this year, that should give them an easy division title, and setup a great playoffs. The Patriots are obviously good, but do I think they can stop LT? No. He has averaged 158 yards rushing and almost 200 total years against the Patriots since his rookie year and I think they were quite fortunate to be 18-1 instead of 17-1.

Oz: Blasphemy. That's like saying if Kennedy wasn't killed, the Vietnam war wouldn't have happened. Okay, maybe a stretch. However, you do have a point about him. The Patriots haven't been able to stop LT, and the Chargers have killed themselves a lot in those games. I do think the Chargers are the only legit threat to the Pats this year, but I definitely think this year in pivotal. If they can't get over the hump this year, how long can they wait. Brady is only 30.

S.D.C.: LT is 29 older in RB years, but he has been a master at avoiding contact as much as possible. I don’t think this is the last shot, but it is probably the best shot. If they don’t win this year, I don’t see any freaking out though because they don’t have expiring contracts or aging players, they are a young team, see them being here for a few years.

Oz: Predictions?

San Diego: 12-4

Denver 8-8

Oakland: 7-9

Kansas City: 5-11

AFC Playoff teams:

1. New England

2. San Diego

3. Indianapolis

4. Cleveland

5. Pittsburgh

6. Jacksonville

S.D.C.:

Chargers 13-3

Broncos 8-8

Raiders 6-10

Chiefs 5-11

Playoff teams?

Chargers

Patriots

Colts

Pittsburgh

Jaguars

Browns

Wow, we had the same teams, just a little bit different order, ha.

AFC South

The AFC South: Clay is buying into Jacksonville. Oz? Not so much.

Oz: We all can guess who'll be at the top this year, but the toughest battle will be coming out unscathed here.

Houston: The bottom-feeder here. However, they are not too bad. Matt Schaub put up pretty good numbers last year, Andre Johnson is one of the league's top receivers, and the two have really meshed together. Their offensive line should be better this year than last and last year they gave up a third of what they gave up in sacks the previous year. A third! Mario Williams has shown flashes that he deserved the number one pick over Reggie Bush in 2006, and if Rosevelt Colvin plays at full health, the Texan defense won't be too bad. Dunta Robinson is a stud at cornerback.

S.D.C. I don’t think the line will be better this year. They used their first round pick on a Tackle, Duane Brown, who may be good, but he is raw and may not even start this year. They have two subpar running backs, which is not better then one good one. Their passing game was great last year, and I don’t see any reason for it to get worse, except that maybe they surprised everyone and they may key on the fact that they shouldn’t be able to run the ball. Their defense is ok, Mario Williams is a stud, but they do not have any depth and I don’t think they have enough playmakers.

Oz: Indianapolis: The question mark here is health. The key stat being that the players injured (Manning, Harrison, Freeney) are all top 3 at their position. Manning will most likely be fine, but how's his number one receiver? Is Reggie Wayne the man now (104 catches, 10 TD's last season)? Some people are saying the Colts are going to be down this year, but how so? They've got the second best q

uarterback in the game, a veteren line, two young playmakers (Wayne/Addai), and an above average defense. They should win this division. I don't think they win it at 13-3, but they'll win it.

S.D.C.: Agreed, they do not have a lot of depth on the O-line or D-line. If they stay healthy they are competing for the Super Bowl, but if they lose some key guys like last year, they won’t be able to keep up with the Patriots and Chargers. They also have a very tough schedule this year, playing Minn, GB, NE, SD, Pitt and of course Jax twice. Healthy, 14-2 wouldn’t surprise me a bit, but the lack of depth scares me.

Oz: Jacksonville: The only threat to the Colts dominance. Do you buy it? They're terrific defensively and apparently they can score, but they've never actually impressed me. I've never said to myself, "wow, Jacksonville is GOOD!" Have you? They're a smash-mouth team, which I like. Maurice Jones-Drew is a little shit. I love him. David Garrard is their quarterback. I don't know; I just don't buy into it. Can you sell me on these guys? Is this league competitive because none of the teams are really top tier teams besides the Colts?

S.D.C.: I do buy it.They have a great defense, and a great running game. They have a decent QB who stayed out of trouble last year, and he has JD to bail him out, which is huge. Their lack of play making receivers is a big deal. They got Jerry Porter who could be good, but may not show up…after that they have Reggie Williams and Troy Williamson. Garrard has a strong arm and Williamson is fast. If they can figure things out, they could be a little bit better there then last year. Then again, Williamson could continue to be a bust as well as Porter and they could be worse. They lost Marcus Stroud to Buffalo, which could hurt them pretty big on D, making their Dline young and shallow. They do, however, have a much easier sched then the Colts which will make their two games against each other huge. I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up at the top and compete in a stacked AFC, but they could look exactly the same as last year, which is just not quite good enough.

Oz: Tennessee: Say what you will about Vince Young's style of play, but the kid is a leader. He can put a team on his back and help them win the game. The problem is that he's got no one around him. The Titans signed Alge Crumpler this year and he should help if he can establish a solid relationship with Young. LenDale White is the running back. Do you think that Vince Young talks shit to White about the 2006 Rose Bowl? I definitely would. Back to the Titans. I think they're no better than third here but I do think they could beat any team in this division at least once.

S.D.C.: He is a leader, he just isn’t a great passer and has shit for receivers. The last three years the Titans have been 17th, 27th and 21st ranked offense in the league, and they didn’t do anything to get better. You are right Crumpler could help, but they have shit for receivers and I hope that VY talks shit all day long to a fat cocky Lendale White. The defense was great last year as long as Haynesworth was healthy, he was a beast. Getting franchised was smart for a guy with motivation issues because he has to play well again to get a new contract. I think they made the playoffs last year with some good D and an easy schedule. This year I don’t see them getting as many close wins. They fired Norm Chow for a lack of offense, but I have news, they aren’t going to be any better this year.

Oz: This is a tough division to pick. I really am not sold on any of these teams this year.

It is not as tough as I thought it might be, but it is tough in that an injury here or there could change everything. I think we have one super bowl contender, one team on the fringe of being good but not quite great, and two average teams that would do much better in a different division, but just don’t have quite enough guys.

Oz: Overall, I agree 100%. This division has one legit contender and another probable playoff team. Getting three teams out of this division will be extraordinarily tough, though. I doubt it happens.

Indianapolis: 11-5
Jacksonville: 10-6
Tennessee: 8-8
Houston: 6-10

S.D.C.:

Indianapolis: 12-4

Jacksonville: 11-5

Tennessee: 8-8

Houston: 8-8

I wanted to give Indy more wins, but the main question is this…can Indy stop a good offense in a final drive to win the game? And to me the answer is no.

AFC North

Clay and I are back with a preview of the AFC North, which is possibly the toughest division in all of football.

AFC North Preview: Will the Browns finally overtake the Steelers at the top of the division?

Oz: Baltimore: Here's a team that's over the hill. They're trying to get younger, which is heading them down the right path in the next few years, but right now, it's about getting reps for the young guys. I expect the Ravens to work Joe Flacco into the mix at quarterback, especially if Kyle Boller struggles. Their inability to pass (mainly because you and I would be their best wideouts), though, only hinders Willis McGahee's production at running back. The defense isn't exactly stocked full of spring chickens, but Ed Reed and Ray Lewis anchor a tough unit.

S.D.C.: I agree with everything here. The defense really didn’t do much to get better, athlough health is the real key to getting better. Joe Flacco is going to run this ship, and he is not going to pull a Roethlisberger here because the team isn’t good enough around him. The O-line is all new, and they are going to miss Jonothan Ogden who retired. They aren’t the worst team in the NFL, but they should be the worst team in their conference.

Oz: The one thing I see coming out of Baltimore is them being a spoiler for a division foe. We all know how seemingly inferior teams within a division can be the toughest to play. I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a win that would be a crucial loss to Cleveland and Pittsburgh at the top of the division. What about Cleveland?

Cleveland: Here is the breakout year for the Cleveland Browns. Potent offense led by Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards; young/fast defense led by head coach Romeo Crennel. Is this the year the Steelers get pushed back to second fiddle? Can Derek Anderson have another 2007 (3787 yards passing, 29 TD’s)? When is Brady Quinn going to push him out? Ever? How’s Winslow’s knee? How much does Dante Stallworth add? In short, what's it going to take to get them over the hump?

S.D.C. All good questions, my friend. I think a lot of it depends on the OL. If they are as good or better then last year, then this offense will continue to fly. They did a lot in the off-season to try to improve this defense, and I think they will be better. Corey Williams and Shaun Rodgers will bolster this Dline and they have good athletes at LB. Are they good enough to overtake Pitt? Maybe they are. I doubt they sweep Pitt this year, but I think they give them a run for their money.

Oz: Not only do I think they'll sweep the Steelers, I guarantee they do. What’s up with the Bengals?

Cincy: I think they're no better than third in this division. They've got a great offense, but not-so-great defense and off-the-field troubles to boot. Just because a team can score doesn't mean they can win. The Bengals don't have a stud running back who can stay healthy. I like Rudi Johnson, but he screwed me last year in fantasy football. Kenny Watson is reliable, but not a great back. They'll split time and I think it will be more of a problem than a solution.

They are a mess. They didn’t do anything to improve their horrendous defense which is strange because they felt like they were close to getting over the hump. They won’t get there this year with a terrible defense and an injury prone RB. I still think they fly through the air, but like you said, it isn’t enough.

Oz: Pittsburgh: Listen to this five week stretch in weeks 10-14 for Pittsburgh: Indy, San Diego, Cincy, @ New England, Dallas. Big Ben is a good quarterback and they're always a good team physically. They seem to have responded well to second-year coach Mike Tomlin. That said, I don't think they're a top-tier team anymore. What I mean by that is they don't scare me into suggesting they could compete for a Super Bowl title. A division crown? Definitely, but no chance they make any ripples further down the line.

S.D.C.: I think Pitt is solid. Ben is poised to have a great year with Ward and Holmes, and Rashard Mendenhall should boost the running game. Their O-line has to stay healthy if they are going to run the ball, and Chris Kenoeatu has to show he can replace their lost leader, Alan Faneca (which I think he is capable of). They aren’t deep at OL, and that is probably their biggest question mark. They should be great against the run, and they have some athletic LB that compliment each other well. Their biggest problem is going to be their schedule, just as you mentioned. Other than what you mentioned, they have Jacksonville too. This team is definitely good, but I am not sure they can hold up with the elite, and because of their schedule they will either go into the playoffs as a super bowl contender or they won’t make it at all. They have to sweep Balt and Cincy, and at least split with Cle to have a shot which isn’t out of the question.

I think this is going to be a two horse race, and probably one of the most interesting of the year.

Oz: So prediction. I've got the Browns at the top of the division and scaring the shit out of someone in the first round, if not knocking them out. You hear me, Indianapolis? Too early to jump on? Remember what I said about Davidson in the NCAA tournament?

Cleveland: 11-5
Pittsburgh: 10-6
Cincinnati: 9-7
Baltimore: 7-9

Very competitive division.

S.D.C.: Well, unfortunately you aren’t going to win any originality points here with me because Mine looks exactly the same, only less wins for, well, everyone.

Browns 12-4
Pittsburgh 10-6
Cincinnati 6-10
Baltimore 5-11

I think the Browns upset Dallas to start the season, and they get on a roll to start. They get the Cowboys and Steelers in the first two weeks of the season, both at home…if they win those two they will cruise. @Baltimore, @Cincy, NYG, @wash…all winnable games. After playing at Jacksonville (who I think is stronger), they have Baltimore, Denver, @ Buffalo, Houston, all winnable games, before they play Indy with a full head of steam. They will lose their first matchup against Indy. I think they have the right schedule to put up a big number this year.

Patriots Preview

Will Gillette Stadium continue to house the AFC's best team?

Bones's Completely Biased Patriots Preview

I don’t ever want to hear that sound again. I hear it every single time someone brings up Super Bowl XLII. Plaxico Burress smoked Ellis Hobbs to catch the game winning touchdown against the Patriots and that’s when I heard it. Every single Giants fan at the University of Phoenix Stadium went ape shit as I buried my head in my hands. But it was this one scream from a lady in the stands that caught my ears and made every other sound inaudible. It was the “holy shit, is this really happening, we’re going to beat the Patriots, what the fuck do I do?” scream. It was probably the same scream every single person watching the Super Bowl outside of New England let out. I hate that scream.

Let’s just cut to the chase and simply state that February 3^rd 2008 was easily the worst day of my life. You could force me to watch 300 puppies getting slaughtered and it would not be as bad as that night. In fact, I could write a novel about the entire day. The hours leading up to the game I had the reassuring thought there is no way they lose this game. They won fucking 18 games in a row! 18! And of course they just fucking roll over and get raped and lose. It was probably the only time in my life I literally considered killing myself … seriously. Right before kickoff any hardcore Patriot fan will tell you that something was not right in Phoenix that night. What happened to the explosive offense? Why was the offensive line as porous as the French army trying to defend against Hitler’s invasion? Why wasn’t Tom Brady showing any sort of emotion? How is Eli fucking Manning performing like he’s playing in the video game Madden on the rookie level? For the love of God why aren’t they putting them away? I could go on and on but that’s not the point of this article. The point is to remember that shit happens and when all is said and done, the Patriots are 0-0 going into 2008…and will forever be 18-1 … God I’m such a pessimist!

(For the record I am yet to watch the re-play or any highlights from that game. I would rather lock myself in a room and watch clips from the 9/11 attacks - at right - over and over than watch that game again.)

Going into the 2008 season there is really no reason to believe that the Pats will fall victim to the “Super Bowl hangover.” If you’re trying to tell me that they are not a playoff team then you are lying to yourself. In fact, after going undefeated last year in the regular season (the Patriots have one of the NFL’s easiest schedules this year) it is tough to even point out a game they could lose this year. However I do know that going undefeated two years in a row is extremely unlikely. Just like going 18-0 was…fuck! Here’s how I see things shaking out this year:

DEFENSE

Major losses: CB Asante Samuel, CB Randall Gay, LB Rosevelt Colvin, S Eugene Wilson

Major additions: LB Victor Hobson, CB Fernando Bryant, CB Jason Webster, S Tank Williams, * CB Terrence Wheatley, *CB Jonathon Wilhite, *LB Jerod Mayo, *LB Shawn Crable, *LB Bo Ruud, Defensive Guru Dom Capers

*=rookie

Gone is ball-hawking cornerback Asante Samuel who sought greener pastures (green as in $$) in Philadelphia. Losing Asante will be huge because there a few shutdown corners in the NFL today and I consider him one of them. Ellis Hobbs, who will be holding down one starting position, is not terrible but he isn’t exactly a Pro Bowl caliber corner. While he is fast and athletic, he often bites on play fakes and is always eager to make the big play. The Pats also lost nickel back Randall Gay who filled nicely into the role player position. To help counter these losses, the Pats brought in veteran Fernando Bryant from the Lions. Bryant does not bring the same type of playmaking abilities that Asante Samuel possessed but is the type of guy who will thrive in Belichick’s complex defensive scheme because of his experience. Rookies Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite bring athleticism and youth to the table but neither one of them had spectacular numbers playing at the collegiate level. Coupled with Jason Webster, these three corners figure to rotate in and out of the backfield filling in nicely for departed Randall Gay. I see Hobbs and Bryant as the starters come game time.

With the NFL’s “dirtiest player” Rodney Harrison returning, the safety position seems to be the strong point of the secondary. While he has lost a step and has never been a good coverage man, just his presence is still intimidating for receivers coming across the middle. Second year man Brandon Meriweather should have a better season than last now that he has had time to settle into the playbook. He beat out long time starter Eugene Wilson last year and rotated in with James Sanders. While Sanders has significantly improved his game both in coverage and tackling, I expect Meriweather to take over a majority of the FS duties. That is if they do not shift Meriweather over to CB which is a possibility. Expect Tank Williams to switch in and out with Harrison. Williams is a punishing player and at 6’2, 223 figures to provide even more toughness to the position. At camp he has been playing up close to the line and even playing some linebacker. He is versatile and Belichick is going to get everything he can out of him.

The Patriots have a defensive line that features All-World’s Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, and Richard Seymour, and is one of the best units in the league. Wilfork (right) is an absolute beast up front playing nose and Warren is athletic and versatile. Richard Seymour is healthy at camp for the first time in awhile. If he can avoid the injury bug this year he always figures to create a problem for opposing teams. His speed and strength are phenomenal and if need be, Jarvis Green fills in well, except when he’s trying to tackle Eli Manning on third-and-5 in the Super Bowl. This unit is the least of the Patriots worries.

If there is a position on the team that received an “extreme makeover”, it is the linebackers. Rosevelt Colvin could not overcome the injury he suffered last year and was released. While I did like Colvin’s speed and ability to rush the QB, he is replaceable. Taking his spot outside will be the physical freak of nature Adalius Thomas. Playing ILB last year was a change for him and learning a new defense really showed at times. Now that he is switching back to the outside, I think we will see why we signed him for big bucks last year from Baltimore. At the other end is Mike Vrabel, a veteran leader. While not the quickest of the bunch he still has it in him to make smart decisions. Both Vrabel and Thomas can play inside if need be. On the inside Tedy Bruschi returns for another title run. While Bruschi (right) is only a mere shadow of what he used to be before suffering a stroke, he like Vrabel has the smarts and instincts to be a playmaker. I do see his role diminishing a little bit more this year as rookie Jerod Mayo patiently waits in the shadows. At 6’1 and 242lbs, Mayo is athletic, fast, and provides the youthfulness this LB corps has lacked for so long. While it may take a couple of games for him to “get it,” I see Mayo turning out to be a good player for the Pats for a long time. Victor Hobson came from the Jets and provides the experience and toughness needed to play inside. Expect to see rookie Shawn Crable and 3rd year man Pierre Woods get shuffled into the mix from time to time in an already deep linebacking squad. Junior Seau is yet to make a decision on his return to the team but like Bruschi provides veteran leadership and flexibility.

Perhaps the most overlooked aspect of the defense this year is the teams signing of defensive guru and secondary coach Dom Capers. Capers is a long time friend of Belichick and is a known master when it comes to the secondary. He will prove to be a very important piece to a coaching staff that has lacked a defensive mind since the departure of Eric Mangini. With Capers on board, it will also allow Belichick to be more flexible and focus on other aspects of the team.

Overall:

On paper it seems like the Pats have taken a step back this year on the defensive side of the ball. In the past two seasons, the Patriots secondary has let up game winning drives when it counted the most: the 2007 AFC Championship in Indy and SB XLII. Watching this unit will be interesting moving forward. But if Bill Belichick has taught us fans anything it is his ability to deal with losing playmakers and finding the right role players to fill the void (see Ty Law). I do think the Pats have a more improved group of linebackers than last year and the defensive line still remains solid. The biggest questions will be how the cast of Samuel’s “replacements” will perform and can the defense win a game on the line when it matters most.

OFFENSE

Major losses: TE Kyle Brady, WR Troy Brown, WR Donte Stallworth

Major additions: WR Sam Aiken, RB LaMont Jordan, *QB Kevin O’Connell, *WR Matt Slater

What the Patriots offense achieved last year was magical. The record-breaking offense was impressive to watch and there is nothing to suggest it will be any different this year (unless Tom Brady gets injured which will result in the immediate suicide of myself). Tom Brady put up historic numbers and had one of the best single season performances by an NFL quarterback – ever. He passed for almost 5,000 yards and threw 50 touchdowns on the season! In the divisional playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Brady had a mind-numbing game. He set the NFL record for completion percentage in a single game (92.9%) with 26 of 28 completions for 263 yards and 3 touchdowns. Let those numbers just sit in your head for a minute. That’s the type of season this guy had. At one point during a commercial break I remember just staring down into my beer trying to figure out what the hell was going on. Seriously, a completion percentage of 92.9%? What…the…fuck! If you get ambitious, go to Wikipedia and look up Tom Brady. At the bottom is a little paragraph about all of his records and achievements, simply amazing. The day this guy hangs them up is going to be the day I sob like a little girl. However, it sucks for the rest of the NFL because he is not retiring anytime soon. Barring injury, Tom Brady should have another banner year. The real question here is who is going to come in from Brady if he goes down? Matt Cassel is now going into his fifth NFL season and unless he shows he can perform and be a serviceable NFL QB, I think we may see a changing of the guard. 2^nd year man Matt Guttierez will see lots of playing time this pre-season after showing some promise last year. He had a limited playbook last year and now it is his time to show us he can hang with the big boys. Do I think he will beat out Cassel? Ultimately no, but it will be interesting. Rookie QB Kevin O’Connell (pictured at right, who is probably even more handsome than Brady! Now that I think about it, the Patriots may have the most handsome QB squad in the entire league) was brought in to babysit the number three spot and learn the playbook. In other words, if Brady goes down you might as well throw the towel in and make my funeral arrangements.

Randy Moss. That’s all I really need to say. Last year he showed us why he is the best receiver in the league and why he will continue to be. While I don’t expect him to catch 23 TD’s again, I do not expect him to slack off or become a non-factor. As long as he is on the field, the Patriots have a chance of winning. Wes Welker had a phenomenal year last year and figures to give teams headaches again this year. He is quick, elusive, and has some of the best hands I’ve ever seen. The biggest question at the WR position is who will take over the number three spot? Jabar Gaffney is a younger version of Troy Brown and has the ability to make the big play while defenses are focused in on Welker and Moss. Right behind him his special teams ace Kelley Washington who also figures to be in the mix. The biggest factor in this squad is the role of Chad Jackson. Drafted two years ago in the second round, Jackson is naturally gifted with blazing speed and agility. He has been injured the past two seasons and it is do or die for him this year. He needs to prove he can be another deep threat for Brady if Moss (at right) is not available. All eyes are on him to step up and show us he knows how to utilize the gifts he was given. Free-agent Sam Aiken has had a monster camp and is also vying for a role in an already loaded receiving corp. As a side note, Troy Brown’s career is still up in the air. He was released earlier in the year and has been seeking a contract from someone. Whether the Patriots re-sign him or bring him in as a coach, it will be sad not to see number 80 running around on the field.

Keeping the tight ends healthy seems to be the theme every year for the Patriots. Ben Watson has great hands and can really open up the middle of the field. He is quick, strong, and gives linebackers fits. While his blocking is not as solid as some of the other tight ends, when he is healthy he is a major threat. David Thomas has also had his share of injuries after showing promising signs in the 2006 playoffs. He also has great hands and if healthy should contribute immediately to the team.

This year I believe you will see a rushing attack that will be utilized more often than last year. Laurence “Kool-Aid” Maroney will be in his third year and should be well adjusted for his starter’s role. Many people criticized him last year for not being tough enough and for dancing rather than running east/west. For his first year being the featured back I think he handled it well. He did not put up stellar numbers (835yds, 6 TD) but you also need to take into account that the Patriots were primarily a passing team. He played extremely well down the stretch when teams were starting to key in on Moss and the passing game and had a great performance in the playoffs. He is healthy in camp this year and is no longer plagued by the shoulder injury he suffered last year. Expect big numbers from Maroney this year. Adding to the rushing attack is veteran Kevin Faulk. Dubbed by me as Mr. Reliable, Faulk still has juice in the tank to be a major threat out of the backfield. As a third down back he always does something special to get that extra yard and has bailed the Patriots out of many games throughout his career. To backup Maroney is bruiser Sammy Morris and recently acquired LaMont Jordan. Before suffering a chest injury in the middle of the season, Morris was having a banner year and proved to be an efficient back in tough yardage situations. LaMont Jordan was brought in from Oakland as an insurance policy and may or may not make the final roster. However, do not be surprised if the Pats keep all three backs and rotate all of them in throughout games in specific situations. Rounding out the backfield are FB’s Heath Evans and Kyle Eckel who provide the Pats with an option for those tough yards. Both of them figure to see limited action during the year.

The offensive line will be the biggest question mark for the offense going into 2008. Line coach Dante Scarnecchia is a genius and often gets more out of his players, especially ones that are not your prototypical linemen size. Anchoring the left side of the line are Pro Bowlers LT Matt Light, LG Logan Mankins, and C Dan Koppen. While Matt Light is an experienced veteran and is an above average tackle, he is extremely inconsistent in play and does not fare well against speed rushers (see SB 42). Logan Mankins is a beast and is panning out to be one of the best guards in the league. At 6’4, 310lbs, he sets the tempo for the line and continually frustrates his opponents with his toughness. Center Dan Koppen has been solid at his position for 6 years now and the BC alum figures to be just as steady this year. The right side of line is where there are the most questions. On the right returns RG Stephen Neal and RT Nick Kaczur. Stephen Neal has proved to be a serviceable NFL guard. The former wrestler is average at best but with no depth at the position, he seems to be the favorite for the position this season. RT is going to be a problem for the Pats this year. Nick Kaczur has been mediocre at best. When he’s not missing assignments, you can find him taking OxyContin (pictured at left) in the parking lot in his car. In all seriousness Kaczur may lose his starting job this year to big man Ryan O’Callaghan. He is a monstrous figure at 6’7, 330lbs and for his size, is very athletic. He has had a pretty decent camp, too.

To round out the offensive side of the ball is the special teams unit. 3^rd year kicker Stephen Gostkowski returns to handle the duty of field goal kicker. Last year he was 21-24 in FG attempts and shows tremendous leg strength, especially during kickoffs. Many people questioned Belichick’s faith in Gostkowski when the Patriots decided to go for it on 4^th and 13 in the Super Bowl instead of kicking a 48 yard field goal. I, too, questioned the decision and made me wonder if Belichick had faith in his accuracy. However, upon thinking about this more, can anyone really blame Belichick for wanting to go for it? When you have one of the most explosive offenses in NFL history, why would you settle for 3 points when you could get 7? Belichick plays to win games not lose them.

Overall:

Barring a catastrophic injury to Tom Brady (right with head coach Bill Belichick), the Patriots offense seems to be in for another big year. With few significant losses and the emergence of a deep receiving corp coupled with a potent running attack, there is little reason to believe this group will take a step back. Having the NFL’s easiest schedule can’t hurt the Patriots either. Perhaps the biggest question for the entire year is how will the Patriots respond to their devastating Super Bowl loss? Can they repeat the offensive brilliance they had last year or have the Giants provided the blueprint to stop Brady and company? Last year, Foxboro was a media circus – questions about Randy Moss and his character, coupled with spygate allegations and going undefeated really took a toll on the psyche of the team. With the media finally focusing on another NFL team and stories (Brett Favre anyone?), it has been a relatively quiet pre-season in Foxboro for the first time in a couple of years. Personally, my gut tells me it will be a special year. I’ll end this preview with a quote from one Patriot’s fans thoughts on this upcoming season:

“People who think the Pats were good last year haven't seen anything yet. Now we're pissed! Didn't anybody learn anything from that old Jim Croce song? "You don't tug on Superman's cape, you don't spit into the wind, you don't pull the mask off that ole' Lone Ranger and you don't mess around with Belichick" The Giants fucked it up for everybody next year. We probably would have taken it easy on people if we won the Superbowl. But now 18-0 will be a major disappointment. We not only have to be undefeated but people need to die on the field while we are playing them. Literally die.”

My prediction: 13-3

I’m not predicting how they’ll finish. I just don’t do that.

(Ed’s note: When pressed, he did offer this: “They’re going to finish third in the AFC East”)

The Patriots open their 2008 campaign in Thursday's opening preseason game at Gillette Stadium against the Baltimore Ravens.

AFC East Preview

AFC East Preview: The Division of Extraordinary (looking) Patriots Quarterbacks

San Diego Clay and I are back with another preview of your favorite football divisions.

Oz: Buffalo - Buffalo will probably make the biggest leap this year in the AFC East - maybe even the whole league. They're not a terrible team. Marshawn Lynch was one of the best rookies in the NFL last year and should improve. As a Pats fan, he's a scary player to have to see twice a year. Who was it that predicted the Bills would go to the playoffs this year? Either way, he's wrong. They'd make the playoffs if they played in the NFC, that's for sure.

S.D.C.: I agree, same thing as last year actually, although they also benefit from playing in a shitty division. The problem I see is that they look the same to me as last year. They were really conservative on offense and they basically couldn’t score enough to win. Their defense was great, Lynch is good (I had so much trouble deciding between Lynch and Grant for my keeper and I basically picked Grant because I think Buffalo’s offense sucks again) but is Trent Edwards the guy? I don’t know. They installed a West Coast offense this year, so we will see how Trent does with this, because if they can score, they can win. Of course not the division, but they can shoot for a wild card.

Oz: I'm definitely stealing Lynch from you when it's my turn to pick. I agree the Bills will be good and can SHOOT for a wild-card, but the conference is too tough. One team comes out of this division. Let’s go down to South Beach.

Miami - Miami is awful. They lost their best player (Jason Taylor), they do not have a quarterback that's any good, and Ronnie Brown can't do anything without anyone blocking for him, so he's useless. This is the least scary team in the whole entire conference.

S.D.C.: Speaking of not looking better. They clearly don’t care about this year. Last year they struggled to find a competent QB, and this year no one cares because they know they are terrible. They will be trying to figure out which guy, Chad Henne or John Beck, is the future of their organization, and probably lose most of their games. The total for wins is 5.5…I like the under. Their best bet for wins are Oak, KC, SF, Ari, Seattle and NYJ (sorry Gregg), and to tell you the truth, every one of those teams is better. The Chiefs won’t care about winning either, but still, can they win 6 of those 7 games? No way.

Oz: I agree. No way that the Dolphins win five games this year, nevermind the over. I like the list of teams they could beat and I disagree with you. Every one of those teams is better than the Dolphins. They're letting Parcells cook the dinner, but his ingredients are shitty. Let’s head to Foxboro.

New England - One of the top three teams in the NFL. Probably poised to make another Super Bowl run. Two years in a row, the defense has had 4-point leads with less than three minutes left and allowed the other teams to score a game-winning touchdown. What's to stop that from happening again this year? Is the offense a moot point if the defense can't make stops when it matters? Will the Patriots fans be heartbroken again this year? With the NFL's easiest schedule, is there a chance of going undefeated again?

S.D.C.: Are you going to use this preview as an excuse to run photos of Tom Brady looking handsome?

Oz: Yes. There’s no way I’m not using GQ pictures, either.

S.D.C.: I don’t see undefeated, especially playing at San Diego and at Indianapolis, not to mention this league is not conducive to undefeated teams. Either way, they are good. Their offense alone will win most of their games, and they are probably going to have to. Belichick seems to always get more out of his defense, but that has been their downfall the last two years, like you mentioned. Their win total is 12.5 and I think they win 14 because they are really good and have an easy schedule. No one in this division is beating them, that is for sure. They could lose to every “good” team they play and still get 13 wins. Undefeated? I don’t think so. Super Bowl? Interesting stat, the Pats have ended the Charger’s season two years in a row, and Brady has thrown 6 total interceptions in those two games combined.

Oz: 14 wins sounds pretty appropriate here. There's no way they lose to anyone within the division. The defense, I think, will be a little stronger than what most people think, especially at defensive back. With one of the best defensive lines in the league (and a, finally, healthy Richard Seymour), the pressure is enough to help the secondary. Obviously, Patriots fans won't have to worry about handsome Tom Brady and the offense. The offense can't expect him to throw 50 touchdowns this year. Maybe 60? What should be expected of Laurence Maroney? He's a third year guy who is good but hasn't made "the leap" yet. Should we be worried?

What about the rivals to the south?

New York Jets - What's going on the Mangini and his boys? They could legitimately go 10-6 and miss the playoffs. They could also go 6-10 and not surprise anyone. Who is their quarterback? Kellen Clemens? I'd expect Thomas Jones to have a better season this year behind a pretty good and young offensive line. Hopefully Mangini doesn't cry to league officials when the Patriots beat them 63-6 at the Meadowlands in a month.

S.D.C.: Jones will have a better year this year, but the Jets? I don’t know. I think they are the third best team in this division. Their defense gave up an average of 28 points per game, but that is skewed from the Patriots. Then again, their offense managed only 13 points per game. That is terrible and I don’t think Kellen Clemens is the answer…Brett Favre maybe? They still don’t win more games than they lose with Favre running the show.

Oz: I agree. Alright then --

Let's roll with the prediction for the east.

There's no way the Patriots don't come out on top of the AFC east. There's a better chance of Gisele knocking on my door right now. They'll win six division games. They're the most explosive offense we've ever seen, the quarterbacks are all ridiculously handsome, and their defense got healthier at the line, and younger at linebacker.

Otherwise, we're looking at a fight for second and third, with probably Buffalo coming out on top of the Jets for second in the division. In the basement is Miami.

New England: 14-2
Buffalo: 9-7
New York Jets: 6-10
Miami: 2-14

S.D.C.: I totally agree here just a little bit different on my records

Pats 14-2
Bills 8-8
Jets 6-10
Dolphins 3-13

Coming tomorrow: A completely biased debut column from Bones in form of a 2008 New England Patriots preview

A completely disinterested NFC West Preview

Clay and I are here to bring you another installment of the 2008 NFL football preview!

The NFC West: Does Alex Smith smell like cabbage?

Oz: Arizona - We've been saying for years that Arizona is going to make the leap from year to year, but guess what? It never, ever happens! They have talent on offense at every skill position. The Cardinals even have two pretty solid quarterbacks. What's the deal here? Is Edgerrin James pissed he went to Arizona instead of staying in Indy? Even if they do well this year, Anquan Boldin said he's leaving when his contract is up. Apparently there is great morale in Glendale.

S.D.C.: Yeah, they do say that every year, and I am sure they are saying it this year…I don’t buy it. The offense will do better than last year, because they were very inconsistent last year (injuries to both QB didn’t help). The defense won’t do enough, though. I am not sold on either QB really. If you give Warner time and space, he is one of the best passers in the game, but when the pocket starts to collapse, he looks like John Rocker stumbling into the middle of the gay pride parade in San Francisco.

I do think Edge has a better year this year, regardless of how many wins this team gets.

Oz: St. Louis - The Rams were terrible last year, but they were injured. They're a little bit old, but they've got talent offensively and should be able to rebound. I don't see them winning the division, but they'll win more games than they did last year. Being in the NFC West more or less guarantees you three wins, no?

S.D.C. I hate this division. There is not one legitimately good team. There hasn’t been for a while. Seattle had a couple of good years, but I still think that was just perpetuated by the horrendousness of the division and the NFC as a whole during that period (not that much has changed). St Louis should be decent. There isn’t a whole lot of defense in this division either, but their offense will be consistent and their defense will do just enough to put them ahead of at least two of the pitiful teams in this division. Their receivers are getting old, but hopefully Bulger stays healthy and helps improve the team from last year.

Oz: Seattle - The obvious favorite. I've said this before, but I hate the Seahawks. They run a terribly boring offense, they've never really impressed me. How much of them winning so often in the past five years is because they play in the weaker conference? I mean, if they played in the AFC, would they win more than seven games a year? Seriously, put them in the AFC North. They win three games tops in that league.

S.D.C. I know, I know, we are so bitter about this conference. We joked before writing about the NFC South, but every team in that division (Atlanta doesn’t count as a team) is better then every team in this division. Seattle is probably the best team in this division because they are the only team that has a defense. If they stay healthy, they should win the division because they are well coached and take care of the ball. They will score just enough to win. SF has had their number the last couple of years, and ST Louis should be better, so they are no lock, but I think they do the most with what they have, and we all know defense wins in the NFL.

Oz: San Francisco - Are Alex Smith's days numbered? He's not a good football player. He played at Utah. What a bad year of drafting that was. Do you think the 49ers are still pissed Leinart went back for his senior year? I would be. Do you realize their best player (Frank Gore) is definitely leaving them the first chance he gets? Do you realize their #1 receiver is Isaac Bruce and he's 68 years old?

S.D.C.:

Wow.

Ok, I guess I will write about them. Alex Smith has small hands and smells like cabbage, Gore is studly, their defense has been consistent but they can’t do anything on offense. They have been incredibly weak at receiver over the years and they don’t have good enough pass protection for a shitty QB with small hands. They have also been one of those teams people keep expecting to improve and break through, but they took a step back last year. I don’t think they make the jump until they get a capable QB, but that is just me. If Gore stays healthy and the defense plays well enough, they could do some damage. Many teams have won without a QB doing the work, but I don’t know if this team is capable of that.

I am sorry, I didn’t do research for this league…I just don’t care. On a more interesting note, I can’t wait to watch Manny Ramirez and Jeff Kent play together. The Dodgers are notorious for getting players that don’t fit together in the clubhouse. They always have a lot of talent but under perform because they don’t get along (they are the west coast equivalent of the Mets). Now they just went out and got another one of those guys. Granted, I am pissed the Padres have to play against him 15 times a year, but I look forward to Kent making some Jamaican joke and Manny calling him a stupid cracker.

Oz: Overall? Well, it may sound like I'm going backwards here a bit, but I think Arizona steps it up a bit and challenges Seattle for the division.

Seattle: 11-5
Arizona: 10-6
St. Louis: 7-9
San Francisco: 4-12

S.D.C. I do not agree about the Cardinals. They should actually have a solid offense, but I think this is another division of mediocrity. I don’t know if the O-line does better, or the defense, but they were a pretty popular pick last year to do better and they didn’t. Granted, they had a lot of injuries. It is hard to pick the team that we be less bad than the rest. I also think no team from this division wins more than 10 games.

St Louis 10-6
Seattle 8-8
Arizona 8-8
San Fran 7-9

I don’t know, I am guessing here. I really don’t know much about these teams.

Oz: Good job going out on a limb here. The Rams could make a run if they stay healthy, which they didn't do last season. So we're conflicted here.

As we conclude the NFC, who are you playoffs teams?

My division winners: Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans, Seattle
My wild card teams: Philadelphia, Green Bay

S.D.C.:

1. Cowboys
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. St Louis
5. Minnesota
6. Redskins

This isn’t going out on much of a limb here is it, pretty close to last year’s playoffs? I could easily replace GB and Minn. I had trouble keeping TB out of there too for some reason. I think Carolina could make their way in also and it wouldn’t surprise me. Of course Philly and NY could be there too. I think the West is a one team division, the East is a two team division, and I think both GB and Minn make it in. I don’t think three teams will come from the East.

Oz: Isn't it just incredible how awful the entire NFC is? There re 16 teams, none of whom are better than the top three in the AFC. Just saying. Then again, this was said last year before David Tyree made the best catch in the history of the NFL. I'm still very bitter. Thanks, Sports Illustrated, for bringing it up on the cover of this week's issue.

Join us tomorrow for the beginning of the AFC previews!