We’ve got three pick ‘em games this weekend and I’m pretty sure we won’t see 10 of 12 road teams winning this week. That was nuts and I can’t believe you did so well last week even with that stat. I’m sitting here during my break period and doing the best with the time I have. Relax, I have projects due today. I’m really not slacking.
I’m slacking, but that’s ok. I did kick ass last week, I got 13 of 16 to win the week in my pickem pool. This week I don’t feel so good about the dogs. I actually like mostly favorites, that’s tough.
By the way, I am glad Norv Turner finally realized that when you run the ball more, you control the clock and it’s the opposing team’s defense that gets tired and gives up the big play late in the game. Good timing Norv.
15. Minnesota @ Detroit (+9.5): The Lions are atrocious against the run and the Vikings have the best back in the NFL. I’m pretty sure Peterson will run for 200 yards this game if they don’t yank him after scoring on his first three touches, which is a possibility.
Minnesota (-9.5)
I am leaning towards the yank part because I am desperate in the playoffs and hoping for a big Chester Taylor day. This line got pulled until further notice on the Williams boys. I don’t care if they are playing or not, I wouldn’t change the line. This is a terrible matchup for a terrible team. Blowout city.
Vikings -10
14. Cleveland @ Tennessee (-13.5): Is Anderson going to play this weekend? If not, who is the Browns quarterback? We know Kellen Winslow will not be playing, which really hurts me in the second week of fantasy football playoffs. The Titans should dominate this game especially without the Browns having a good quarterback.
TENNESSEE -13.5
Our old Heisman winning friend Ken Dorsey will be leading the Browns to a 27-6 loss. The Cleveland defense has been decent, but their offense won’t do them any favors this week. The Titans will be up three scores at the half and run out the clock.
Titans -13.5
13. Cincinnati @ Indy (-14): Last week against the Browns, the Colts decided they wanted to play the worst offensive game since Manning took helm in Indianapolis. I don’t think we can count on two weeks in a row of that happening. They’ve won five in a row and are probably aiming to take advantage of playing a crappy team to get their offense back in gear. Twelve points is a lot, but I can see them winning by two scores against a really bad Bengals team.
INDIANAPOLIS -14
I could see Indy bouncing back too, and destroying them, but I could also see them playing like crap as they have pretty much all year. Indy has only one won game by more then 6 all year. Can you believe that? That was a game in which the defense did all of the work. Cincy is terrible and this should be a blowout, but I am going with the trend here.
Bengals +14
12. NYJ @ San Fran (+4.5): Even though they’ve been playing well, I’m down on the 49ers. I played with them on Madden last night and Shaun Hill threw two picks, was sacked five times, and fumbled twice. Just a terrible performance. I was happy to see the Jets lose last week. I don’t expect it to happen again, but I’m going with the hot team.
Jets (-4.5)
Damn, did you just call San Francisco the hot team? They have one two of three (wins against St Louis and Buf) but they have also won 2 of their last 9. Shaun Hill is a good fantasy QB in a league that doesn’t penalize for INTs. For a team to win, he is not. I told you the Jets were over rated by the way. I think they are getting under rated now, though, and SF is getting too much credit for a win out East. The Jets can throw the ball better then Buffalo and the Niners aren’t good against the pass. The Jets are too good stopping the run and Shaun Hill can’t win this game if he has to do all the work. He will make some mistakes as usual.
Jets -4.5
11. St. Louis @ AZ (-14): St. Louis is pretty bad (2-10) and Arizona is 5-1 at home. It’s still a tough call here because 14 points is a lot of points in the NFL. Do you realize the Cardinals could essential lock up the NFC West with a win? They’re 7-5. 8-5 “locks up” a win in that division?! You’ve got to be kidding me.
ARIZONA -14
Yeah, because the other three teams in the division make up three of the worst 5 teams in the NFL. St Louis shouldn’t be able to stop the Cardinals offense at all. Arizona will get in trouble later when their running game fails them, but you don’t need a running game to beat the Rams. They have two wins over this spread in their last ten, but one was at St Louis by 21. I’d like to take the points, but I can’t.
Cardinals -14
10. KC @ Denver (-9.5): Here’s what makes me mad: 1. Denver being so unpredictable 2. The fact that my school blocks out sites with the lines and ATS stats. How am I supposed to know what KC is ATS if I can’t get on? How am I supposed to back up my hypothesis that the Chiefs have been pretty solid ATS? I feel like I’ve done pretty well on them in the last few weeks. Is it possible that Thigpen is better than Huard and Croyle?
KC +9.5
Yes and yes. KC is 6-6 ATS, but 4-2 over their last 6. My problem has been picking them in my weekly money line parlay because they don’t win very often. I would love a win here, because then I could have hope once again for the Chargers just to be crushed in next week when they lose by a last second touchdown from Thigpen to Bowe on the last play of the game. I have taken the dog at Denver every game this year and that makes me 5-0 because Denver hasn’t covered a single game at home this year.
Chiefs +9.5
9. Miami @ Buffalo (pk): How is this possible that this game is a pick em? I should probably get this line before it goes to Miami -2 before Sunday. Miami is better than Buffalo. I’m impressed with this team.
Miami pk
I actually think Miami sucks. The league figured out their offense and now they can’t move the ball. Their defense is solid, but not great. The bills on the other hand have a shitty offense and a banged up defense. This isn’t even in Buffalo, its in Toronto in a dome, which sucks. This game would be more fun in Buffalo outside because they are both stronger in the running game. At least I would like watching a tough game on the ground. Basically, Miami has a better defense and a better QB.
Dolphins pk
8. New England @ Seattle (-4.5): Remember a couple weeks ago when there was all this, “are the Patriots going to trade Brady and keep Matt Cassel?” talk came up on ESPN and on the local radio shows? The answer is no. The Steelers, a very beatable Steelers team, wouldn’t have dominated the Patriots had Brady been on the field. They probably wouldn’t have even beaten them. Case closed. Oh, and the Victoria’s Secret fashion show was on the other night and Brady’s girlfriend is still really hot.
Do you realize the Seahawks are 1-5 at home?
New England -4.5
It is ludicrous that that conversation happened. Matt Cassel had two good games, and lets keep in mind he has two of the best receivers in the league. Brady has three Super Bowls, that’s more super bowl wins then Cassel has good games in his career. The Steelers are beatable, but they are good. Their defense gives them a shot that their O line tries to ruin. Sorry, tangent. Seattle is really bad and New England is pretty consistent. You know what you are getting from both teams. The Pats should have no trouble here. They may push Holmgren over the edge to actually cry after this one. Did you hear that last week? He almost cried in the locker room after the game?
Patriots -4.5
7. Washington @ Baltimore (Sun) (-6.5): Washington stinks. Jason Campbell is probably the most overrated quarterback in the NFL (and people don’t even think he’s that good!). He makes bad decisions at times and playing against the Ravens isn’t going to help his cause. The Ravens scored a lot of points last week and it’s hard to tell if they’re capable of doing it again, but I’m willing to make the call that it’s going to happen.
BALTIMORE -6.5
I think the Ravens offense is definitely capable. They have capitalized off of bad defenses, but I think they are solid. The defense is great, and Washington should have trouble moving the ball, especially with Portis banged up. I love this game. I am on the Ravens bandwagon, and I got off of the Redskins bandwagon in since they lost to St Louis and never recovered. The league figured out their offense too.
By the way, its funny you ranked this game 7th, but NBC ranked it first I guess, picking it for the Sun night game. Although, this next game is definitely not more interesting.
Ravens -6.5
6. Jacksonville @ Chicago (-6): Jacksonville is coming off a short week (and a loss to Houston) and it just snowed in Chicago. This could be a tough game for the Jaguars with these factors. Add to the fact that this is a must-win game for the Bears. They can’t afford to drop below .500 in an already tight NFC North.
CHICAGO -6
To win the pickem last week I had Houston -3 and a one game lead. I was nervous until I read this quote from Fred Taylor.
"In my 11 years, this is probably the worst team, emphasize the word 'team,' that I've been on. We have some outstanding players, but the mix is bad. We can't really find that chemistry that we need. ... We don't have that mix and it's just tough right now."
Yeah, I am not going to bet on the Jags any more.
Bears -6
5. Houston @ Green Bay (-7): Houston is 1-5 on the road this year and heading into Lambeau Field really doesn’t do them any favors in improving that. That said, the Packers seem really content on letting people stick around in games. I think the Packers should win, but the Texans will stick around for a little while. This could be a late cover for the Pack, but I’m going to take my chances.
Houston (+7)
I don’t get the Packers. I can’t seem to give up on them, but their defense has been horrendous. This is a must win for them and that road record speaks for itself. I think after a very happy win at home on Monday night, they have a letdown against a better team. The Packers will pick off Sage a couple of times and the offense will bounce back for a big game against a poor Houston defense.
Packers -7
4. Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3): Remember, the home team always wins in this division (the home team is 22-2 in the NFC South). That’s good enough for me to pick the Saints with home cooking. How many touches did Bush get last week? Do you know?
NEW ORLEANS -3
Hard to pick here. I am not sure if Atlanta looked good or San Diego bad last week. I can’t see either defense doing much here. My heart says Atlanta, but you are right about the home teams in this division, and New Orleans should put a lot of points on the board. The Saints really are different at home in their dome.
Saints -3
3. Philly @ NYG (-8.5): This line is huge especially since the Eagles have had a week and a half to prepare for the Giants. The defending champs are 10-2 ATS this year, which is enough to make you want to bet on them every week until you lose, which is what I’ve been doing. I gotta stick with that trend. I’m bound to lose eventually, but why go against what has worked for seven weeks?
NYG -8.5
I agree, and that’s why I picked Tennessee vs the Jets even though I thought that was their week to go down. I don’t know if Philly can win this one, but no matter what the Giants say, Plax is a distraction and Philly has had a lot of time to prepare. I can’t say I’d be surprised by a 31-21 win from the Giants, but I have a feeling Philly plays tough this week. I don’t know, the Giants are rolling over everyone, and I feel like they will eventually get complacent, and what better week to do that with Plax getting all of the attention and the Giants actually thinking they are better without him.
Eagles +8.5
2. Tampa @ Carolina (Mon) (-3): Remember, home team is 22-2 in this division, probably the most competitive in the NFL (take that, NFC East!). Any team in the NFC South is capable of beating another. Both teams are 9-3 and at the top of the division. The good news is that the second place team should end up in the playoffs because of the weak West and the underachieving North.
CAROLINA -3
I think you are right about two teams from this division. The Panthers are scaring me lately with their run defense and Delhomme’s woes. On the other hand, Tampa has serious trouble moving the ball sometimes. I think this is a very boring game with lots of field goals. You have to take the home team, here, right? 22-2 is a pretty compelling argument. Its Monday night too, I always like the home team a bit more in this spot.
Panthers -3
1. Dallas @ Pitt (-3): The game of the week. Intriguing game here. Many people started to count Dallas out, but now they’re almost a lock for the playoffs. They looked great on Thanksgiving Day, but my high school team could look great against the Seattle Seahawks. Pittsburgh looked good defensively, forcing (what seemed like) a turnover on every Patriot second half possession. This should be a good game.
Dallas +3
Pitt has a great defense and their offense could be very good if their O Line didn’t hate pass blocking. I definitely wouldn’t say Dallas is a lock for the playoffs when they are 3 games out of the division (uncatchable) and currently tied for the last wild card with Pitt, NYG, Balt and Philly left to play, but the West is so crappy and the north isn’t likely to bring a wild card team, I guess they have a very good shot. Pitt has such a terrible field, I think that hurts their defense, which is just stupid. Dallas is a totally different team with Romo. This is tough, I am really looking forward to this game. It’s really a coin flip for me. I could argue for both teams. I think I will take Dallas just because Pitt is everyone’s favorite right now.
Cowyboys +3
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