Plaxico Burress pre-gunshot wound
We're back with the picks! Clay was off-duty this week, but gracious enough to give us his picks. Oz in black, Clay in blue. Good luck, gamblers.
San Francisco @ Buffalo (-7) Remember this was the dream match-up of the early 1990's? Everyone wanted to see Montana versus Jim Kelly, but neither team could ever beat the New York Giants? Well, now this game isn't really that good. Buffalo has been overrated since the beginning of the season (and even I'm guilty of being fooled). However, the 49ers are also a pretty bad team. I'm not expecting much from this game, but I think the Bills can win by a couple scores.
BUFFALO -7
San Francisco +7: This could be another blow out, but the Buffalo defense is hurting and SF could keep it close.
Baltimore @ Cincinnati (+7): The Bengals are one of four home dogs and rightfully so. If you don't think I'm willing to jinx the Ravens just so the Bengals upset them, you're crazy. All Patriots fans need to be rooting for the Ravens to lose every game from here on out. The Bengals won't be able to run the ball, so they'll have to throw. And Ryan Fitzpatrick is their quarterback. Just saying.
Baltimore -7
Baltimore -7: Bengals will score few.
Indianapolis @ Cleveland (+4.5): Seems like a no-brainer here. Nice schedule, Indianapolis! The Colts should be able to throw all over the Browns, whose secondary lets up about 370 passing yards a game. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in the last nine weeks. Put lots of money on the Colts. They need to keep winning to ensure a playoff spot.
Indy -4.5
Colts -4.5: Browns just got blown out at home by Houston.
Carolina @ Green Bay (-3): This should be a good game, but the Panthers record is misleading, especially on the road, where the Panthers are only 2-3 and score considerably less (23 pts vs. 18). With a spread this small - and a game this equal - you gotta take the home team.
GREEN BAY -3
Packers -3: I still think the Pack win their division.
Miami @ St. Louis (+9): Miami coming off a huge loss to the Patriots last week and the Rams having nothing to play for. The Phins go in and blow the Rams out.
Miami -9
St Louis +9: Miami sucks, so does St Louis, Miami failed to cover big spreads vs KC and Oakland already.
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-4): The home team always wins in this division, keep that in mind. It doesn't matter who plays whom. Reggie Bush won't make much of a difference here. The Bucs were torched in New Orleans earlier in the year and I don't expect that to be the case when they play in front of a home crowd. Last year at Tampa Bay, the Saints were held to just under 200 yards total offense. I'm thinking it's going to be much of the same.
Tampa Bay -4
New Orleans +4: Reggie back, I think they go on a little run here.
New York Giants @ Washington (+3): What's been my rule? Bet on NYG every week. Results? 9-2 ATS. Should be much of the same unless Plaxico Burress decides he wants to shoot himself this week. Oh wait ...
NYG -3
NYG -3: Washington is not that good.
Atlanta @ San Diego (-5): Are you excited about Michael Turner returning to Qualcomm? I am. I'm sorry to tell everyone this, but the Chargers stink. The Falcons are pretty terrible ATS on the road, but the Chargers aren't much better defending their home turf.
Atlanta +5
Atlanta +5: Chargers lose by 2 or blow them out. Guess which one I expect?
Denver @ New York Jets (-9): So the Jets are now the hottest team in the NFL? I was listening to ESPN radio and they were talking about how nice it would be to have a "Subway Super Bowl," which makes no sense because even if the Giants and the Jets played in the Super Bowl, they wouldn't be "riding the subway," they'd be flying because the game is in Florida. I hate sports radio. They're all assholes. Either way, it kills me to say this, but the Jets are pretty good and they'll beat up on Denver at home.
NYJ -9
Broncos +9: This could be a blowout, but I think the Broncos score some points here.
Pittsburgh @ New England (-1.5): I'm really excited about this game and it should be the top ranked game. The Patriots lost two games they could have won (at Indy and versus the Jets), so they could realistically be 9-2 without Tom Brady, which is a fine thing to think about. Cassel is really starting to come into his own. Here's my question: if the Patriots (hypothetically) beat the Giants in the Super Bowl this year, would all this trade Brady talk be legit? I say no, but there are a lot of New England fans who might think so. That's amazing. No one ever wanted to trade Larry Bird when he was injured.
NEW ENGLAND -1.5
Steelers +1.5: Sorry, I think they are better, too many injuries, and Cassel's streak ends here against a great defense.
Kansas City @ Oakland (-3): Imagine your #1 and #2 quarterbacks went to the IR in the same season? Imagine they were named Brody Croyle and Damon Huard? Really? Those were your top choices? Imagine a guy named Tyler Thigpen was better than both of them? I'm amazed at all of this. They didn't even downgrade when their QB's went down. They all suck....but they're better than the Raiders.
Kansas City (+3)
KC +3: Raiders offense doesn't score like last week and KC should.
Chicago @ Minnesota (-3.5): This is the Sunday night game? It looks like I'm watching The Simpsons then Family Guy.
Minnesota -3.5
Chicago +3.5: I don't buy Ferotte.
The only thing worse than having the Bears and the Vikings play on Sunday night would be like having ....
Jacksonville @ Houston (-3.5) on Monday Night Football. I'm hoping Steve Slaton scores four times against the Jaguars. I need the fantasy points in the first week of the playoffs. Sure, I'll talk shit about the Texans playing on Monday night, but I'm actually okay with it. I bet this will be a better game than we think between two teams who have no shot at the postseason.
Houston -3.5
Houston -3.5: I guess Vegas finally realized that Jacksonville isn't good.
BUFFALO -7
San Francisco +7: This could be another blow out, but the Buffalo defense is hurting and SF could keep it close.
Baltimore @ Cincinnati (+7): The Bengals are one of four home dogs and rightfully so. If you don't think I'm willing to jinx the Ravens just so the Bengals upset them, you're crazy. All Patriots fans need to be rooting for the Ravens to lose every game from here on out. The Bengals won't be able to run the ball, so they'll have to throw. And Ryan Fitzpatrick is their quarterback. Just saying.
Baltimore -7
Baltimore -7: Bengals will score few.
Indianapolis @ Cleveland (+4.5): Seems like a no-brainer here. Nice schedule, Indianapolis! The Colts should be able to throw all over the Browns, whose secondary lets up about 370 passing yards a game. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in the last nine weeks. Put lots of money on the Colts. They need to keep winning to ensure a playoff spot.
Indy -4.5
Colts -4.5: Browns just got blown out at home by Houston.
Carolina @ Green Bay (-3): This should be a good game, but the Panthers record is misleading, especially on the road, where the Panthers are only 2-3 and score considerably less (23 pts vs. 18). With a spread this small - and a game this equal - you gotta take the home team.
GREEN BAY -3
Packers -3: I still think the Pack win their division.
Miami @ St. Louis (+9): Miami coming off a huge loss to the Patriots last week and the Rams having nothing to play for. The Phins go in and blow the Rams out.
Miami -9
St Louis +9: Miami sucks, so does St Louis, Miami failed to cover big spreads vs KC and Oakland already.
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-4): The home team always wins in this division, keep that in mind. It doesn't matter who plays whom. Reggie Bush won't make much of a difference here. The Bucs were torched in New Orleans earlier in the year and I don't expect that to be the case when they play in front of a home crowd. Last year at Tampa Bay, the Saints were held to just under 200 yards total offense. I'm thinking it's going to be much of the same.
Tampa Bay -4
New Orleans +4: Reggie back, I think they go on a little run here.
New York Giants @ Washington (+3): What's been my rule? Bet on NYG every week. Results? 9-2 ATS. Should be much of the same unless Plaxico Burress decides he wants to shoot himself this week. Oh wait ...
NYG -3
NYG -3: Washington is not that good.
Atlanta @ San Diego (-5): Are you excited about Michael Turner returning to Qualcomm? I am. I'm sorry to tell everyone this, but the Chargers stink. The Falcons are pretty terrible ATS on the road, but the Chargers aren't much better defending their home turf.
Atlanta +5
Atlanta +5: Chargers lose by 2 or blow them out. Guess which one I expect?
Denver @ New York Jets (-9): So the Jets are now the hottest team in the NFL? I was listening to ESPN radio and they were talking about how nice it would be to have a "Subway Super Bowl," which makes no sense because even if the Giants and the Jets played in the Super Bowl, they wouldn't be "riding the subway," they'd be flying because the game is in Florida. I hate sports radio. They're all assholes. Either way, it kills me to say this, but the Jets are pretty good and they'll beat up on Denver at home.
NYJ -9
Broncos +9: This could be a blowout, but I think the Broncos score some points here.
Pittsburgh @ New England (-1.5): I'm really excited about this game and it should be the top ranked game. The Patriots lost two games they could have won (at Indy and versus the Jets), so they could realistically be 9-2 without Tom Brady, which is a fine thing to think about. Cassel is really starting to come into his own. Here's my question: if the Patriots (hypothetically) beat the Giants in the Super Bowl this year, would all this trade Brady talk be legit? I say no, but there are a lot of New England fans who might think so. That's amazing. No one ever wanted to trade Larry Bird when he was injured.
NEW ENGLAND -1.5
Steelers +1.5: Sorry, I think they are better, too many injuries, and Cassel's streak ends here against a great defense.
Kansas City @ Oakland (-3): Imagine your #1 and #2 quarterbacks went to the IR in the same season? Imagine they were named Brody Croyle and Damon Huard? Really? Those were your top choices? Imagine a guy named Tyler Thigpen was better than both of them? I'm amazed at all of this. They didn't even downgrade when their QB's went down. They all suck....but they're better than the Raiders.
Kansas City (+3)
KC +3: Raiders offense doesn't score like last week and KC should.
Chicago @ Minnesota (-3.5): This is the Sunday night game? It looks like I'm watching The Simpsons then Family Guy.
Minnesota -3.5
Chicago +3.5: I don't buy Ferotte.
The only thing worse than having the Bears and the Vikings play on Sunday night would be like having ....
Jacksonville @ Houston (-3.5) on Monday Night Football. I'm hoping Steve Slaton scores four times against the Jaguars. I need the fantasy points in the first week of the playoffs. Sure, I'll talk shit about the Texans playing on Monday night, but I'm actually okay with it. I bet this will be a better game than we think between two teams who have no shot at the postseason.
Houston -3.5
Houston -3.5: I guess Vegas finally realized that Jacksonville isn't good.
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