Week Four Picks cont.

Reggie Bush leads the Saints against the 49ers in this weekend's #6 match-up

The following are the middle five games this weekend. Oz in black, Clay in blue.

10. Atlanta @ Carolina -7

Someone on ESPN (I forget who or I'd call them out) said that Carolina showed their true, inconsistent colors against Minnesota. I want to punch that man. The Panthers opened the season @ San Diego, against Chicago, and @ Minnesota and came out 2-1. Now they go into two winnable games against Atlanta, Kansas City, then will probably head into a pivotal division match at Tampa Bay at 4-1. They welcomed Steve Smith back last week, who'll add a deep threat and the Panthers have gotten consistency out of both D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. I think they cruise in this game.

(I think I should add, too, that before the season, the main focus was "wow, there might be a lot of good AFC teams that won't make the playoffs in their conference," but now I'm looking at the NFC. Philly, Dallas, NYG, Chicago, GB, Minnesota, Carolina, Tampa Bay, N.O., and any NFC West team not named the Rams as playoff teams.)

Carolina -7

Atlanta is 2-1 which is really depressing for all of the 1-2/0-3 teams, including my Super Chargers. Wins over Detroit and Kansas City don’t earn you respect, though. They are definitely the class of the shitty teams. I think all year they are going to take care of business against those shitty teams because they have a very good running back, and a rookie QB that knows how to manage a game. When they run into good defenses and/or good offenses they will likely struggle…more so against good defenses. Well Carolina has both, and they are at home. I think Carolina rolls in this one and gets a relatively easy win because they will stack the box and make Matt Ryan beat them, and…well…he can’t.

Carolina -7

9. Arizona @ NYJ -1

Why is it that I refuse to do my picks without a beer? Except when I tinker a little bit in school with my selections, I am drinking while doing them. I wish I could use that as a reason for why my record is under .500.

I think I said this earlier in the week in an e-mail that I'm not ready to jump on the "Hey, New York could win the division" bandwagon. I've never been on. To quote a recent insult toward the GOP VP nominee, "you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig." The Jets are still the Jets. They lack weapons offensively, their defense isn't spectacular, and they're play-calling has been awful this year. Favre makes too many mistakes, which is called "just trying to win the game." He's been forcing balls and making bad decisions for four seasons now. It's not a coincidence that the Packers are still a top team in their division without him.

Think the oddsmakers are suspicious? They set the line at 1 point for the Jets AT HOME, AGAINST THE CARDINALS.

Arizona +1

Haha, that is a pretty bad sign for your team. I like that Greggy (our Jets fan friend) says “If only the offense could play like they did in the fourth quarter Monday night for a whole game.” When looking at the game with a little less emotion, I think one would notice that the defense stops trying to hold the opposing offense when they have a 24 point lead, but just not to give up big plays. Maybe, just maybe, that is why the Jets scored all but 7 of their offensive points in the fourth qtr.

This is a good matchup here. Two teams that are making cases to challenge this year. Arizona has looked better (against worse competition) but they go on the road for this one. The Jets struggled to stop anything last week after two good defensive efforts. I think the first two offenses were weak, so they will probably have some trouble keeping Arizona from scoring. The Cardinal defense isn’t as good as the Chargers (at least on Monday when they were blitzing more than not) so the Jets only hope to stay in this game is that Favre throws often and to the right team. The running game still hasn’t gotten going, but Az is giving up over 100 per game so far. In the end, I think the Arizona offense is going to be too much to handle. I won’t put much faith in the Jets offense until I see Favre on the same page with his receivers. There were just too many balls that went no where near a receiver that was running a different route than Brett anticipated. Once they do, this offense could be very good, but they aren’t there yet.

Cardinals +1

8. San Diego @ Oakland +7

Well, the Chargers finally did it. They broke into the win column. It's really no surprise. The Bolts are one of the top teams in the league, but they need to start better than they do. I'm impressed with the way Rivers controls the ball when LT is neutralized, if that has ever really happened. He puts passes exactly where they need to go. San Diego's defense has been suspect to start the season, but no one is willing to test out if Cromartie or Jammer have their heads in the game. I'm pretty sure JaMarcus Russell isn't going to take chances against either of them this week.

San Diego is too good and the only reason this line isn't 12.5 is because they're playing in Oakland. (As one of the greatest sports writers of all-time, Jim Murray once said, "Here's how to describe the difference between San Francisco and Oakland: to cross the bridge and drive into San Francisco, you pay a dollar; to get over the bridge and go into Oakland, they let you go for free.")

Chargers -7

San…Di…ego…..Super Chargers! Now that is what I have been looking for. Aggressive on both sides of the ball, and LT looking healthy. He didn’t have a big game, but he looked healthy, and we haven’t seen that since before the playoffs last year. Gates looks healthy and Marcus McNeill is back on the left side. The offense is going to keep rolling and I don’t think there is anything anyone can do to stop them, including the Raiders. The last thing Raiders fans wanted to see this week was LT healthy (829 yds and 12 Tds over last 3 years vs Raiders). The Oakland offense is too one dimensional and the Chargers should have no trouble stacking the box and taking a very supbar passing game one on one. By the way, the Chargers have won those 6 games by a combined score of 167-69 and you have to go back to Sept 28, 2003 to find the last time the Raiders beat the Chargers.

Chargers -7

7. Cleveland @ Cincinnati -3.5

I don't know if either punters are needed here. The over/under is 44.5 and I'm probably going to take it. The Browns really need a win here. If they don't get one, I'm pretty sure both the playoff run and the Derek Anderson era are offically over. (Do I sound like a happy fantasy owner of Kellen Winslow? Thanks for the two points last weekend) Here is the Browns problem: they pass too much. Sure they have weapons, but balance the offense and you can use them better. Jamal Lewis is still a solid back, and backup Jason Wright really needs to carry the ball more than 2 times in three weeks. I'm worried about the Browns, who are a staggering 10-0 in Madden 2009 on XBox 360 under my control.

Cleveland -3.5

Maybe you should be coaching this team. I love the Madden commercial (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itlScR7ImoA) where he talks about guys not punting and going for it on fourth and 30. That really is a funny commercial. I think the real John Madden is more comical than Frank TV. Has anyone watched this show? The commercials just make it look terrible to me. He is funny, but that show, really?

Really, how is the Browns offense this bad so far? These teams are lucky to be playing each other this early so that one of them gets a win. I expected the Bengals to be bad, but I expected the Browns to be better than this. Their defense doesn’t look much better than last year, and the offense can’t get anything going. Anderson has been a huge disappointment so far, and now Brady Quinn is back in the picture. If he has a bad first half, that could be it. I personally think that he shines this week. Last time he was playing for his job was last year against cincy when he threw for 328 yds and 5 TD in a 51-45 win. I don’t think there are that many points this time around, but I do think Derek Anderson finds a groove with his receivers. I think the put up some points against a terrible defense and I think this game comes down to the last drive. If someone has to win this game, I think I will take the points.

Browns +3.5

6. San Francisco @ New Orleans -6

The fact that San Francisco has reached the #6 slot for most interesting game of the week is astounding. JT O'Sullivan has taken over the starting slot on Undefeated Again, though I'm leaning toward starting Carson Palmer against the Bengals. O'Sullivan looks good, though he may be like a Japanese pitcher that is unhittable until he's figured out then rendered obsolete. On the other hand, the Saints, against a good Denver defense moved the ball very efficiently. Does Reggie Bush look like a full-time back now? This offense could be straight scary once Drew Brees has weapons to throw to down the field. I'm thinking the over again here, or including the Saints in a ballsy 6.5 point teaser.

New Orleans -6

Ok, first of all, did you just say a “good Denver defense?” They have given up 84 points in three games and that includes only 14 to an Oakland team that cannot play from behind because they can’t pass. They are allowing 421 yards per game…they are about as good on defense as Jessica Alba is at acting, that’s not what they’re getting paid for. The offense is good and will be better when/if they are healthy. I also think they are handling Deuce McAllister the right way, too. He is 29 and has only had 4 season with over 100 carries, so it’s not unfathomable that he could recover from two knee surgeries and return to form. If it is possible, they are doing things the right way by easing him back in.

Neither team here has been playing any kind of defense so far. The Niners are 2-1 after beating two terrible teams and losing to a pretty good team, and NO is 1-2 after beating a playoff team and losing on the road to two pretty good teams. The Saints are down their top two receivers, but I don’t think it will matter this week against the San Fran defense. I think both teams will score a lot of points, and I like the home team to prevail. Right now, though, I have to think these two teams are pretty even with the NO injuries. If San Francisco can keep scoring points they should be in this game. If the offense starts to stall, they could be in trouble. I think NO wins this game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was just by one score. Lets just hope that one score isn’t 7.

Niners +6

The last five will be posted shortly.