The Tribune's Missed Opportunity

The Eagle-Tribune didn't print this obituary (kind of) for John Updike that I penned the evening of his death. Here, I share it with you.

Adieu, Mr. Updike

By Matthew Osgood

“Who will do it again? That’s it: No one;

Imitators and descendants aren’t the same.”

-John Updike, Perfection Wasted (1990)

During my second semester of college, I, as a young journalist, was introduced for the first time to John Updike though his iconic 1961 article in The New Yorker, “Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu,” about Ted Williams final game at Fenway Park. If you haven’t read it, look it up. It is required reading for sports fans and non-sports fans alike. As a writer green to the profession, I was stunned and awed by the deviation from the characteristic restriction of language usually displayed by journalists. The lyricism, the insight, and the mastery of consciousness and idiom showed a level of journalism I’d never seen. The language impacted legions of journalists. Of course, I was one of the many to count his influence.

I was blindsided by the news of his death when I heard through a friend in the newspaper business on Tuesday evening. We lost a giant of the writing field, who, at the time of his death at the age of 76 had produced an incredibly immense portfolio of fiction, short stories, essays, and poems. If he wasn’t the greatest writer of our time, he’s on the very short list. To provide a little perspective, news of Updike’s death appeared on the main page of the online versions of at least the Boston Globe, the New York Times, and the Los Angeles Times.

I learned about Updike’s writing during my undergraduate years at Springfield College through my journalism professor. This valuable recommendation encouraged me, as the years progressed towards my own endeavors into the education field, to share Updike’s writing with own my classroom. He was a champion for the cause of the literary-minded; He was not a sports writer, he was a writer who wrote about sports on occasion.

When a favorite writer dies, it’s an odd sensation. You feel like you’ve spent countless hours with him because, in essence, you have. If you’re a writer, you read authors like Updike and marvel at their use of tone, syntax, and language. You read every individual sentence with an incredible amount of attention to detail and shake your head at the idea that anyone can write that way. It’s like watching Larry Bird hit jumper after jumper. That’s what John Updike did. He used erudite words that sometimes necessitated a dictionary and they were always used correctly, he provided an insight into American society that no one else could have provided, and he made you feel, as you read his essays, novels, or criticisms, that he was writing to and for you.

Updike was a staunch Red Sox fan. A native Pennsylvanian, he came to the Commonwealth to study at Harvard University and never left. He wrote numerous pieces on the Boston Red Sox teams from the ill-fated 1967 squad to the present day juggernaut. He was one of the very few remaining old-fashioned journalists. Updike lived the writer’s dream of doing the one thing he loved for a living. It’s a pipe-dream for some, but he made it seem that much more realistic.

Time and time again we return to our favorite writers. Their ability to enliven us and console us is unmatched. We re-read in between other writer’s novels. We dog-ear pages with our favorite passages, and overzealously share them with our friends. We look to our favorite writers to articulate our sentiments on love and death, weddings vows and national tragedies. When that writer’s voice is silenced, the words endure, which is where the deceased author’s fans take solace. The well will eventually run dry, new words will cease to emerge, but the enduring ones will persist and resonate even more profoundly than ever.

Every writer fantasizes about a chance meeting with one of their literary heroes. This is especially encouraging with Updike, who lived a short drive away in Beverly Farms. He seemed accessible to writers in this area, a guy who you’d run into after church on an idle Sunday morning who would be willing to grab a coffee and talk about the craft of writing, or recommend a book.

And so we waited, like Updike did in the “lyric little bandbox” that is Fenway Park on September 28, 1960 for our hero to give us a curtain call, to emerge from the dugout one final time and give us just a wave of the cap. I should have known better; As Updike told us in that article many years ago, gods do not answer letters.

Week 14 picks

Here are the picks for week 14 in the NFL. Clay is in blue, Oz in black.

We’ve got three pick ‘em games this weekend and I’m pretty sure we won’t see 10 of 12 road teams winning this week. That was nuts and I can’t believe you did so well last week even with that stat. I’m sitting here during my break period and doing the best with the time I have. Relax, I have projects due today. I’m really not slacking.

I’m slacking, but that’s ok. I did kick ass last week, I got 13 of 16 to win the week in my pickem pool. This week I don’t feel so good about the dogs. I actually like mostly favorites, that’s tough.

By the way, I am glad Norv Turner finally realized that when you run the ball more, you control the clock and it’s the opposing team’s defense that gets tired and gives up the big play late in the game. Good timing Norv.

15. Minnesota @ Detroit (+9.5): The Lions are atrocious against the run and the Vikings have the best back in the NFL. I’m pretty sure Peterson will run for 200 yards this game if they don’t yank him after scoring on his first three touches, which is a possibility.

Minnesota (-9.5)

I am leaning towards the yank part because I am desperate in the playoffs and hoping for a big Chester Taylor day. This line got pulled until further notice on the Williams boys. I don’t care if they are playing or not, I wouldn’t change the line. This is a terrible matchup for a terrible team. Blowout city.

Vikings -10

14. Cleveland @ Tennessee (-13.5): Is Anderson going to play this weekend? If not, who is the Browns quarterback? We know Kellen Winslow will not be playing, which really hurts me in the second week of fantasy football playoffs. The Titans should dominate this game especially without the Browns having a good quarterback.

TENNESSEE -13.5

Our old Heisman winning friend Ken Dorsey will be leading the Browns to a 27-6 loss. The Cleveland defense has been decent, but their offense won’t do them any favors this week. The Titans will be up three scores at the half and run out the clock.

Titans -13.5

13. Cincinnati @ Indy (-14): Last week against the Browns, the Colts decided they wanted to play the worst offensive game since Manning took helm in Indianapolis. I don’t think we can count on two weeks in a row of that happening. They’ve won five in a row and are probably aiming to take advantage of playing a crappy team to get their offense back in gear. Twelve points is a lot, but I can see them winning by two scores against a really bad Bengals team.

INDIANAPOLIS -14

I could see Indy bouncing back too, and destroying them, but I could also see them playing like crap as they have pretty much all year. Indy has only one won game by more then 6 all year. Can you believe that? That was a game in which the defense did all of the work. Cincy is terrible and this should be a blowout, but I am going with the trend here.

Bengals +14

12. NYJ @ San Fran (+4.5): Even though they’ve been playing well, I’m down on the 49ers. I played with them on Madden last night and Shaun Hill threw two picks, was sacked five times, and fumbled twice. Just a terrible performance. I was happy to see the Jets lose last week. I don’t expect it to happen again, but I’m going with the hot team.

Jets (-4.5)

Damn, did you just call San Francisco the hot team? They have one two of three (wins against St Louis and Buf) but they have also won 2 of their last 9. Shaun Hill is a good fantasy QB in a league that doesn’t penalize for INTs. For a team to win, he is not. I told you the Jets were over rated by the way. I think they are getting under rated now, though, and SF is getting too much credit for a win out East. The Jets can throw the ball better then Buffalo and the Niners aren’t good against the pass. The Jets are too good stopping the run and Shaun Hill can’t win this game if he has to do all the work. He will make some mistakes as usual.

Jets -4.5

11. St. Louis @ AZ (-14): St. Louis is pretty bad (2-10) and Arizona is 5-1 at home. It’s still a tough call here because 14 points is a lot of points in the NFL. Do you realize the Cardinals could essential lock up the NFC West with a win? They’re 7-5. 8-5 “locks up” a win in that division?! You’ve got to be kidding me.

ARIZONA -14

Yeah, because the other three teams in the division make up three of the worst 5 teams in the NFL. St Louis shouldn’t be able to stop the Cardinals offense at all. Arizona will get in trouble later when their running game fails them, but you don’t need a running game to beat the Rams. They have two wins over this spread in their last ten, but one was at St Louis by 21. I’d like to take the points, but I can’t.

Cardinals -14

10. KC @ Denver (-9.5): Here’s what makes me mad: 1. Denver being so unpredictable 2. The fact that my school blocks out sites with the lines and ATS stats. How am I supposed to know what KC is ATS if I can’t get on? How am I supposed to back up my hypothesis that the Chiefs have been pretty solid ATS? I feel like I’ve done pretty well on them in the last few weeks. Is it possible that Thigpen is better than Huard and Croyle?

KC +9.5

Yes and yes. KC is 6-6 ATS, but 4-2 over their last 6. My problem has been picking them in my weekly money line parlay because they don’t win very often. I would love a win here, because then I could have hope once again for the Chargers just to be crushed in next week when they lose by a last second touchdown from Thigpen to Bowe on the last play of the game. I have taken the dog at Denver every game this year and that makes me 5-0 because Denver hasn’t covered a single game at home this year.

Chiefs +9.5

9. Miami @ Buffalo (pk): How is this possible that this game is a pick em? I should probably get this line before it goes to Miami -2 before Sunday. Miami is better than Buffalo. I’m impressed with this team.

Miami pk

I actually think Miami sucks. The league figured out their offense and now they can’t move the ball. Their defense is solid, but not great. The bills on the other hand have a shitty offense and a banged up defense. This isn’t even in Buffalo, its in Toronto in a dome, which sucks. This game would be more fun in Buffalo outside because they are both stronger in the running game. At least I would like watching a tough game on the ground. Basically, Miami has a better defense and a better QB.

Dolphins pk

8. New England @ Seattle (-4.5): Remember a couple weeks ago when there was all this, “are the Patriots going to trade Brady and keep Matt Cassel?” talk came up on ESPN and on the local radio shows? The answer is no. The Steelers, a very beatable Steelers team, wouldn’t have dominated the Patriots had Brady been on the field. They probably wouldn’t have even beaten them. Case closed. Oh, and the Victoria’s Secret fashion show was on the other night and Brady’s girlfriend is still really hot.

Do you realize the Seahawks are 1-5 at home?

New England -4.5

It is ludicrous that that conversation happened. Matt Cassel had two good games, and lets keep in mind he has two of the best receivers in the league. Brady has three Super Bowls, that’s more super bowl wins then Cassel has good games in his career. The Steelers are beatable, but they are good. Their defense gives them a shot that their O line tries to ruin. Sorry, tangent. Seattle is really bad and New England is pretty consistent. You know what you are getting from both teams. The Pats should have no trouble here. They may push Holmgren over the edge to actually cry after this one. Did you hear that last week? He almost cried in the locker room after the game?

Patriots -4.5

7. Washington @ Baltimore (Sun) (-6.5): Washington stinks. Jason Campbell is probably the most overrated quarterback in the NFL (and people don’t even think he’s that good!). He makes bad decisions at times and playing against the Ravens isn’t going to help his cause. The Ravens scored a lot of points last week and it’s hard to tell if they’re capable of doing it again, but I’m willing to make the call that it’s going to happen.

BALTIMORE -6.5

I think the Ravens offense is definitely capable. They have capitalized off of bad defenses, but I think they are solid. The defense is great, and Washington should have trouble moving the ball, especially with Portis banged up. I love this game. I am on the Ravens bandwagon, and I got off of the Redskins bandwagon in since they lost to St Louis and never recovered. The league figured out their offense too.

By the way, its funny you ranked this game 7^th, but NBC ranked it first I guess, picking it for the Sun night game. Although, this next game is definitely not more interesting.

Ravens -6.5

6. Jacksonville @ Chicago (-6): Jacksonville is coming off a short week (and a loss to Houston) and it just snowed in Chicago. This could be a tough game for the Jaguars with these factors. Add to the fact that this is a must-win game for the Bears. They can’t afford to drop below .500 in an already tight NFC North.

CHICAGO -6

To win the pickem last week I had Houston -3 and a one game lead. I was nervous until I read this quote from Fred Taylor.

"In my 11 years, this is probably the worst team, emphasize the word 'team,' that I've been on. We have some outstanding players, but the mix is bad. We can't really find that chemistry that we need. ... We don't have that mix and it's just tough right now."

Yeah, I am not going to bet on the Jags any more.

Bears -6

5. Houston @ Green Bay (-7): Houston is 1-5 on the road this year and heading into Lambeau Field really doesn’t do them any favors in improving that. That said, the Packers seem really content on letting people stick around in games. I think the Packers should win, but the Texans will stick around for a little while. This could be a late cover for the Pack, but I’m going to take my chances.

Houston (+7)

I don’t get the Packers. I can’t seem to give up on them, but their defense has been horrendous. This is a must win for them and that road record speaks for itself. I think after a very happy win at home on Monday night, they have a letdown against a better team. The Packers will pick off Sage a couple of times and the offense will bounce back for a big game against a poor Houston defense.

Packers -7

4. Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3): Remember, the home team always wins in this division (the home team is 22-2 in the NFC South). That’s good enough for me to pick the Saints with home cooking. How many touches did Bush get last week? Do you know?

NEW ORLEANS -3

Hard to pick here. I am not sure if Atlanta looked good or San Diego bad last week. I can’t see either defense doing much here. My heart says Atlanta, but you are right about the home teams in this division, and New Orleans should put a lot of points on the board. The Saints really are different at home in their dome.

Saints -3

3. Philly @ NYG (-8.5): This line is huge especially since the Eagles have had a week and a half to prepare for the Giants. The defending champs are 10-2 ATS this year, which is enough to make you want to bet on them every week until you lose, which is what I’ve been doing. I gotta stick with that trend. I’m bound to lose eventually, but why go against what has worked for seven weeks?

NYG -8.5

I agree, and that’s why I picked Tennessee vs the Jets even though I thought that was their week to go down. I don’t know if Philly can win this one, but no matter what the Giants say, Plax is a distraction and Philly has had a lot of time to prepare. I can’t say I’d be surprised by a 31-21 win from the Giants, but I have a feeling Philly plays tough this week. I don’t know, the Giants are rolling over everyone, and I feel like they will eventually get complacent, and what better week to do that with Plax getting all of the attention and the Giants actually thinking they are better without him.

Eagles +8.5

2. Tampa @ Carolina (Mon) (-3): Remember, home team is 22-2 in this division, probably the most competitive in the NFL (take that, NFC East!). Any team in the NFC South is capable of beating another. Both teams are 9-3 and at the top of the division. The good news is that the second place team should end up in the playoffs because of the weak West and the underachieving North.

CAROLINA -3

I think you are right about two teams from this division. The Panthers are scaring me lately with their run defense and Delhomme’s woes. On the other hand, Tampa has serious trouble moving the ball sometimes. I think this is a very boring game with lots of field goals. You have to take the home team, here, right? 22-2 is a pretty compelling argument. Its Monday night too, I always like the home team a bit more in this spot.

Panthers -3

1. Dallas @ Pitt (-3): The game of the week. Intriguing game here. Many people started to count Dallas out, but now they’re almost a lock for the playoffs. They looked great on Thanksgiving Day, but my high school team could look great against the Seattle Seahawks. Pittsburgh looked good defensively, forcing (what seemed like) a turnover on every Patriot second half possession. This should be a good game.

Dallas +3

Pitt has a great defense and their offense could be very good if their O Line didn’t hate pass blocking. I definitely wouldn’t say Dallas is a lock for the playoffs when they are 3 games out of the division (uncatchable) and currently tied for the last wild card with Pitt, NYG, Balt and Philly left to play, but the West is so crappy and the north isn’t likely to bring a wild card team, I guess they have a very good shot. Pitt has such a terrible field, I think that hurts their defense, which is just stupid. Dallas is a totally different team with Romo. This is tough, I am really looking forward to this game. It’s really a coin flip for me. I could argue for both teams. I think I will take Dallas just because Pitt is everyone’s favorite right now.

Cowyboys +3

Week 13 Picks

Plaxico Burress pre-gunshot wound

We're back with the picks! Clay was off-duty this week, but gracious enough to give us his picks. Oz in black, Clay in blue. Good luck, gamblers.

San Francisco @ Buffalo (-7) Remember this was the dream match-up of the early 1990's? Everyone wanted to see Montana versus Jim Kelly, but neither team could ever beat the New York Giants? Well, now this game isn't really that good. Buffalo has been overrated since the beginning of the season (and even I'm guilty of being fooled). However, the 49ers are also a pretty bad team. I'm not expecting much from this game, but I think the Bills can win by a couple scores.

BUFFALO -7

San Francisco +7: This could be another blow out, but the Buffalo defense is hurting and SF could keep it close.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati (+7): The Bengals are one of four home dogs and rightfully so. If you don't think I'm willing to jinx the Ravens just so the Bengals upset them, you're crazy. All Patriots fans need to be rooting for the Ravens to lose every game from here on out. The Bengals won't be able to run the ball, so they'll have to throw. And Ryan Fitzpatrick is their quarterback. Just saying.

Baltimore -7

Baltimore -7: Bengals will score few.

Indianapolis @ Cleveland (+4.5): Seems like a no-brainer here. Nice schedule, Indianapolis! The Colts should be able to throw all over the Browns, whose secondary lets up about 370 passing yards a game. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in the last nine weeks. Put lots of money on the Colts. They need to keep winning to ensure a playoff spot.

Indy -4.5

Colts -4.5: Browns just got blown out at home by Houston.

Carolina @ Green Bay (-3): This should be a good game, but the Panthers record is misleading, especially on the road, where the Panthers are only 2-3 and score considerably less (23 pts vs. 18). With a spread this small - and a game this equal - you gotta take the home team.

GREEN BAY -3

Packers -3: I still think the Pack win their division.

Miami @ St. Louis (+9): Miami coming off a huge loss to the Patriots last week and the Rams having nothing to play for. The Phins go in and blow the Rams out.

Miami -9

St Louis +9: Miami sucks, so does St Louis, Miami failed to cover big spreads vs KC and Oakland already.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-4): The home team always wins in this division, keep that in mind. It doesn't matter who plays whom. Reggie Bush won't make much of a difference here. The Bucs were torched in New Orleans earlier in the year and I don't expect that to be the case when they play in front of a home crowd. Last year at Tampa Bay, the Saints were held to just under 200 yards total offense. I'm thinking it's going to be much of the same.

Tampa Bay -4

New Orleans +4: Reggie back, I think they go on a little run here.

New York Giants @ Washington (+3): What's been my rule? Bet on NYG every week. Results? 9-2 ATS. Should be much of the same unless Plaxico Burress decides he wants to shoot himself this week. Oh wait ...

NYG -3

NYG -3: Washington is not that good.

Atlanta @ San Diego (-5): Are you excited about Michael Turner returning to Qualcomm? I am. I'm sorry to tell everyone this, but the Chargers stink. The Falcons are pretty terrible ATS on the road, but the Chargers aren't much better defending their home turf.

Atlanta +5

Atlanta +5: Chargers lose by 2 or blow them out. Guess which one I expect?

Denver @ New York Jets (-9): So the Jets are now the hottest team in the NFL? I was listening to ESPN radio and they were talking about how nice it would be to have a "Subway Super Bowl," which makes no sense because even if the Giants and the Jets played in the Super Bowl, they wouldn't be "riding the subway," they'd be flying because the game is in Florida. I hate sports radio. They're all assholes. Either way, it kills me to say this, but the Jets are pretty good and they'll beat up on Denver at home.

NYJ -9

Broncos +9: This could be a blowout, but I think the Broncos score some points here.

Pittsburgh @ New England (-1.5): I'm really excited about this game and it should be the top ranked game. The Patriots lost two games they could have won (at Indy and versus the Jets), so they could realistically be 9-2 without Tom Brady, which is a fine thing to think about. Cassel is really starting to come into his own. Here's my question: if the Patriots (hypothetically) beat the Giants in the Super Bowl this year, would all this trade Brady talk be legit? I say no, but there are a lot of New England fans who might think so. That's amazing. No one ever wanted to trade Larry Bird when he was injured.

NEW ENGLAND -1.5

Steelers +1.5: Sorry, I think they are better, too many injuries, and Cassel's streak ends here against a great defense.

Kansas City @ Oakland (-3): Imagine your #1 and #2 quarterbacks went to the IR in the same season? Imagine they were named Brody Croyle and Damon Huard? Really? Those were your top choices? Imagine a guy named Tyler Thigpen was better than both of them? I'm amazed at all of this. They didn't even downgrade when their QB's went down. They all suck....but they're better than the Raiders.

Kansas City (+3)

KC +3: Raiders offense doesn't score like last week and KC should.

Chicago @ Minnesota (-3.5): This is the Sunday night game? It looks like I'm watching The Simpsons then Family Guy.

Minnesota -3.5

Chicago +3.5: I don't buy Ferotte.

The only thing worse than having the Bears and the Vikings play on Sunday night would be like having ....

Jacksonville @ Houston (-3.5) on Monday Night Football. I'm hoping Steve Slaton scores four times against the Jaguars. I need the fantasy points in the first week of the playoffs. Sure, I'll talk shit about the Texans playing on Monday night, but I'm actually okay with it. I bet this will be a better game than we think between two teams who have no shot at the postseason.

Houston -3.5

Houston -3.5: I guess Vegas finally realized that Jacksonville isn't good.

Week 12 pt 2.

Week 12 picks are here. Sorry so late. Clay in blue, Oz in black. We're both 1-0 headed into the weekend.

6. Carolina @ Atlanta (-1)

I guess Atlanta deserves the respect, this division has been a win at home division. The Panthers look like crap recently against crappy teams. They should have their way on offense, but the Atlanta offense doesn’t seem to be fazed by anyone lately. Personally, I don’t think that Delhomme plays bad three weeks in a row, and I don’t think that Atlanta is better then Carolina. Carolina plays defense, Atlanta doesn’t.

Panthers +1

The Falcons are a pretty good team. This division is much more competitive than I thought it would be, too. As good as Matt Ryan is, he's going to have a tough time against the Carolina defense, which will mean Michael Turner will have to take over. Not easy against a solid defense. The Panthers will do just enough to win here. It won't be a blowout, but I'd take the points.

Panthers +1

5. Green Bay @ New Orleans

Wow, New Orleans finally got a win…at Kansas City. The Saints aren’t very good and the Packers are. The Packers play defense, they run the ball (Ryan Grant has surfaced this month) and they have a good passing offense. The Saints may be getting Reggie back this week, but he won’t be 100% and the packers are the better team here. Drew Brees is the kind of player who can keep his team in just about any game, so I can’t say I’d be surprised if the won this one at home, but I think the Packers are the better team.

Pack +2.5

The Packers are the better team here. It looked like (ready for my best Tim McCarver impression?) other teams were going to have to outscore the Saints in order to win, but that's settled down a little bit. Now everyone who has called Reggie Bush a bust, can they talk shit anymore? Since he got hurt the Saints have been awful. Just saying. You can say he's an injury-prone pussy, but at least he's not a bum.

Packers +2.5

4. New England @ Miami

So the new offense that demolished the Patriots in week 3 or something, and the offense succeeded for maybe a month afterward. Lately they can’t do anything on offense, and they squeaked out two wins the past two weeks against two of the worst teams in the NFL. I know Belichick tends to do better against teams for the second time, and this offense has definitely been figured out by everyone else already. I think the Patriots breeze through Miami, and they won’t be scared to run up the score this week if it comes down to it.

Patriots +2

I agree on many things here, especially the part about Belichick's success against a team the second time around. I wish I knew the record actually. I think the Patriots are feeling a sense of urgency here especially because they are now behind the eight-ball when it comes to the playoffs. They're in second place in the division and have lost to the Colts, who have the same record. The Pats have a tougher road to the playoffs and can't afford to lose this game.

Patriots +2

3. New York Jets @ Tennessee

We both thought this would be 3, but we also both thought we would bet our lives against it. It isn’t much higher, but 5 eliminates the touchdown for field goal trade. Two weeks running the Titans’ opponent has stacked the box and dared Kerry Collins to beat them. And he did. The Jets won’t have to stack the box because they have one of the top run defenses in the league, so will that be enough to slow this offense? Maybe. I don’t trust their secondary, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Favre make some poor decisions under pressure. This seems like a decent matchup for the Titans to lose their first against a confident team with enough playmakers on offense, and the right defense to pull it off. I don’t think they do, but this seems like a possibility.

Titans -5

The Titans will lose this week. It's going to kill me because I don't want to listen to people talking about Brett Favre being the best ever quarterback and even if Tom Brady wasn't injured that Favre might still be the best QB in the AFC. Tennessee is going to have a lot of pressure lifting off them this weekend. They'll lose, then relax, and stroll into the playoffs at 14-2 and I still can't name seven guys on their team.

Jets +5

2. Indianapolis @ San Diego

Let’s see, the Chargers have a terrible pass defense, and Peyton Manning is coming into town riding a winning streak. That is scary. The Chargers have had the Colts number the last few years, and have done so by putting lots of pressure on Peyton and picking off his hurried throws. This year the Chargers have no pass rush, so I don’t see that happening. This could be a shootout, because I don’t expect the Chargers to lie down, but I don’t expect them to stop the colts offense either. As a Charger fan, I am setting my expectations very low. As a gambler, I am thinking this is an effing great line.

Colts +3

Is everyone ready for a Manning versus Manning Super Bowl? Because that is what is going to happen. Colts are hot. Big win.

Colts +3

1. New York Giants @ Arizona

Arizona is pretty legit. Even though Seattle isn’t very good, that is never an easy place to play. Their offense is going to get theirs against anyone, and their defense has been respectable. The problem here is that the Giants not only are 20 points better then every other NFC West team, they are better then every NFL team. Their pass rush is going to make Kurt Warner dance, and that is never a good thing. I think the Giants bring too much firepower here. The defense will be the best they have faced, and the offense will be one of the better too. As long as Eli doesn’t blow this, the Giants should win the turnover battle and the game.

Giants -3

What's all this talk about Kurt Warner being the NFL's MVP? You have to give it to Brandon Jacobs. It's unbelievable. Why can't people see that Jacobs is the best player on the best team? This is staggering. We'll see how tough Warner is this weekend against the G-Men.

Does is come across that we're Giants fans, do you think? We have them ranked number one every week. We're not Giants fans. In fact, I hate the Giants. I represent everything for which I have unaffected scorn. But it's easy money betting on them.

Giants -3

Week 12 pt 1

Here are the week 12 picks. (Sorry they are late) Clay in blue, Oz in black. We're both 1-0 after the Steelers 17 point victory over the Bengals.

Washington @ Seattle (+6.5) Seattle got too much love last week, how about now? We're right on here. Should be about right.

Actual Line: (+3.5) again, we are on the same page, but not the oddsmakers. Didn’t they just get butt whooped at home last week.

Wow, Seattle is getting love again. I know they have a good home field advantage, but they are 2-8 with losses of 24, 3 (SF), 38, 10, 10, 19, 2, 6. They beat SF and St Louis. Meanwhile, Washington has lost 3 of 5 since they were considered a top three team. This is a must win for Washington, and they are definitely the better team. They have to get their offense together, and this seems like the place to do so. There is a chance that Hasselbeck finds his groove in his second game back and they get something going, but I would not count on it vs a good defense.

Redskins -3.5

I don't get the Seattle love this year. They had a great record at home, but they were also a pretty good team. That also plays a role. It doesn't matter where you play, if your team sucks, you're going to lose. Washington still scares me, but I think they're way better than the Seahawks.

Redskins -3.5

Chicago @ St Louis (+13) Will it be this high? If Orton is back, probably. I was way off from you. I said +3. Watch.

Actual Line: (+8.5) we were equally off, but is this line with or without Orton?

Orton played last week, so I will assume he plays again this week. Does it matter? Shouldn’t Forte run free all game? Can the St Louis offense that looks like crap doing anything against the Bears. They won’t be able to run. I now that Bulger is capable and he has capable receivers, but nothing you would expect to be good about the Rams ever seems to be good. I don’t know, considering I thought the line would be 4.5 points higher, I have to go with it. I’m still not sure about the Bears, but the Rams continue to prove me wrong when I think they should be better.

Bears -8.5

After the Rams hung around with the Patriots, I thought they'd be competitive, but I was wrong. They went into New York and got beat by 86 points. The Bears haven't really been particularly impressive. Here's my question: if Devin Hester was so good at returning punts and he kinda sucks at receiver, why not have him line up 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage and throw a pop up to him and have him work his magic?

Bears -8.5

Buffalo @ Kansas City (+3) I don’t know, NO was in the dumps and got 4.5 last week, does Buffalo get the same? Will they win? Week five, this probably would have been 14. I think this should be about +1. Both teams aren't very good. You may be right though.

Actual Line: (+3)

Gotta love the 3 point lines. KC could win, but I said that last week too. The Bills just can’t win any more and the guy that ripped me for doubting the bills at the beginning of the season suddenly feels less sure of himself. The problem I have with this is that all the Bills have to do is hand off the ball and Lynch should win the game with a little help from the defense, but that didn’t seem to work at home last week. The KC offense actually looks ok this days too. I think the Bills win the time of possession battle here, but the way they are going its hard to predict a win. KC is improving, and Buffalo is regressing, but I think they are the better team. Lynch is the difference here, they aren’t going to lose the rest of their games, and this is one they SHOULD win. Although, the more I think about it, the Buffalo defense is banged up and not helping out. The way this season goes, home dogs are winning.

Chiefs +3

Should win is the operative term here. I've been betting (and mostly losing) on Kansas City, but they keep the games and gambling interesting. The Bills haven't impressed me yet this year because they don't beat anyone good. Edwards is overrated, Lynch may be the ugliest player in the league, and their only good defender is Pozluzny. I'm taking the points.

Kansas City +3

Tampa Bay @ Detroit (+10.5) That’s generous. I said +13 here. Detroit is bad. And you are definitely being generous.

Actual Line: (+8.5) Wow

I keep finding myself behind all the favorites and sucking every week, but seriously, how is Tampa only giving 8.5? I guess the Lions have kept it close…wow, I was expecting to find last week to be the only close loss, but they have lost by less then 9 5 of their last 6 games. Granted they got blown out in one of the two Culpepper games, and I wouldn’t trust him to hold my ipod, but maybe we are on to something here. They don’t win, but do they lose by less then 9? The Bucs biggest road win of the year was by 6. Lets go for it.

Lions +8.5

That line is amazing. Culpepper did keep the game close last week against the Panthers, but can the Lions count on him two weeks in a row? We're talking about the Lions here. I do feel like this is a little bit of a trap game. We say "wow only 8.5, I'm taking the Bucs and collecting." I gotta go with the idea that the oddsmakers know more than I do.

Lions +8.5

San Francisco @ Dallas (-6) And Dallas destroys them, I bet they get on a roll after this one. I started at six, but moved it to 7.5. Not too far off, but I may be giving the Cowboys too much love.

Actual Line: (-10) or maybe not

You’d think being 4 points off the line would deter me. Well it won’t, like I said, Dallas gets an old fashion blow out here. This game should be over by halftime. I wouldn’t be surprised if SF gets some back in the second half keeps it respectable, but I can’t expect that to happen. Dallas has a chip on their shoulder and they start coming together this week after squeaking one out last week. Then again, the Niners are a much better team with Sean Hill running the show, but I still can’t buy it.

Cowboys -10

Agreed. I was a little closer with my 7.5 and I still think ten might be too much, but the Cowboys should be a lot better than the 49ers. The 49ers get a lot of their wins from the division, which isn't saying much. It's like someone saying, "I get laid all the time" and the other person responding, "yea, but with slam pigs."

Cowboys -10

Bottom games

Welcome to week 11! Oz is in blue, Clay in black.

So I got through the top 10 games and then I got stuck. The last 6 games were all so equally bad, I could not decide which one could possibly be better then the other. Since I don't believe any of them should be better then last, they are all tied for 16th.

I think it's perfectly okay to list these games all as #16.

16. Oakland @ Miami (-10.5) Higher than I thought it would be here. I guess I still think too highly of Oakland. However, besides the New England game, the Dolphins haven't blown anyone out and we're talking about teams that aren't very good (San Diego, Buffalo, Seattle, Denver). I gotta go with the points here.

Oakland +10.5

I hate that the Chargers are in that not very good category and I can’t even argue. I think I am the opposite. I am very down on Oakland, the defense isn’t doing much and the offense is horrendous. I doubt anyone on the team cares based on their suckiness (yeah, I said it) and their recent cut of their “best player”. Meanwhile I have been a bit too high on Miami. They have a solid defense and an offense that is pretty average. They have trouble moving the ball sometimes, but can Oakland stop them? I thought they should have torn through Seattle, that was disappointing. Carolina covered this spread last week in Oakland with Delhomme throwing for 57 yards and 4 interceptions. I don’t think Pennington does that. Oakland will not win another game this year, and I think they started getting rolled every week…I guess continue to.

Dolphins -10.5

16. Philadelphia @ Cincinatti (+9) I was half a point off here with my guess (-9.5). The points don't really matter much to me here, as I think everyone saw that the Eagles are one of the better teams in the league even though they might not make the playoffs. Imagine that? There are, as of now, seven teams ahead of them.

Philly -9

I plan to continue with this beat up on crappy teams and lose to good teams theory. Philly beats up on this craptastic club. Wow, I guessed 13 here, what does that tell you about my thoughts on this line. By the way, you guessed 3.5 for the Dolphins line, apparently you do overrate them.

Eagles -9

16. New Orleans @ Kansas City (+5.5) It was you who was a half point off here. Good guess. Kansas City has played pretty well in the last few weeks even though they've lost five in a row. That's weird to say. This team is 1-8 and they're playing well? The Saints, meanwhile, are the only team capable of losing a game in which your QB throws for 422 yards. Still don't know if Bush is going to play either. I hate to say this, but I'm going with the Chiefs (which may change come Sunday).

Kansas City +5.5

I agree with you for now. I may also change this, but the Chiefs have looked decent in their last three losses. Does that mean they are due for a win, no, but it means they will probably stay close with a team that plays no defense. The Chiefs defense has been playing better, but I don’t see them holding down the Saints offense. Bush or no Bush, the Saints should rack up a lot of yards on the ground. This could be over at halftime, but I think the Chiefs keep playing with heart, especially at home.

Chiefs +5.5

16. Detroit @ Carolina (-14) We both nailed this one at -14. Seems about right. Seems about a good bet, too. Nothing like playing Detroit to make you forget about last week, huh Delhomme?

Carolina -14

Seriously, you know how they kept shooting up the Patriots lines last year but it didn’t matter how high they went, we were all still betting on them? Well its like the bizaro Patriots of 08. The Lions just lost at home to a seriously struggling Jags team 38-14. Is there any reason to expect less then 200 yards on the ground and 500 total yards from Carolina? How many picks does Culpepper throw, and is this offense really better with him on the field then Kitna?

Carolina -14

16. St Louis @ San Francisco (-6) This line has to be reflective of what kind of game happened on Monday, huh? There is not one good game in the NFC west. We can't say, "well, if so-and-so matches up against so-and-so, it'll be a good game." No. It'll never be a good game with this division. Don't bother me about Monday, it was a fluke. I didn't even watch it.

San Francisco -6

I got on the St Louis bandwagon too late and have stayed on too long. They looked like the worst team in the league last week and SF barely lost to their division leader on the road. You are right about this line being a product of last week. So shouldn’t we go the opposite way? Is St Louis finally going to cover again the week I decide to give up on them? Can SF play defense? St Louis sure can’t. I hate this game. Here is what I said when we guessed this line “(this depends too much on tonights game but a wild guess, -3 sounds good, haha)” the line probably changed three points based on that game. I am definitely going to waffle all week on this one.

Niners -6

16. Arizona @ Seattle (+3) What did I say? Not ONE good game in this division. Arizona should kill the Seahawks. By the way, I nailed this line.

Arizona -3

No, there will never be a good game because there is one good team and three terrible terrible terrible teams. I thought you were way off on this line, I had 7.5 (of course that was before the almost lost to SF at home). Seattle is overrated after beating up on SF and losing close to Miami. I still don’t buy Seattle. They may keep this close and they may pull the upset in a good stadium for that, but I can’t bet on them to do so. Arizona is a better team, Seattle will probably be worse with Hasselbeck who hasn’t played in a long time.

Cardinals -3