Week 12 pt 1

Here are the week 12 picks. (Sorry they are late) Clay in blue, Oz in black. We're both 1-0 after the Steelers 17 point victory over the Bengals.

Washington @ Seattle (+6.5) Seattle got too much love last week, how about now? We're right on here. Should be about right.

Actual Line: (+3.5) again, we are on the same page, but not the oddsmakers. Didn’t they just get butt whooped at home last week.

Wow, Seattle is getting love again. I know they have a good home field advantage, but they are 2-8 with losses of 24, 3 (SF), 38, 10, 10, 19, 2, 6. They beat SF and St Louis. Meanwhile, Washington has lost 3 of 5 since they were considered a top three team. This is a must win for Washington, and they are definitely the better team. They have to get their offense together, and this seems like the place to do so. There is a chance that Hasselbeck finds his groove in his second game back and they get something going, but I would not count on it vs a good defense.

Redskins -3.5

I don't get the Seattle love this year. They had a great record at home, but they were also a pretty good team. That also plays a role. It doesn't matter where you play, if your team sucks, you're going to lose. Washington still scares me, but I think they're way better than the Seahawks.

Redskins -3.5

Chicago @ St Louis (+13) Will it be this high? If Orton is back, probably. I was way off from you. I said +3. Watch.

Actual Line: (+8.5) we were equally off, but is this line with or without Orton?

Orton played last week, so I will assume he plays again this week. Does it matter? Shouldn’t Forte run free all game? Can the St Louis offense that looks like crap doing anything against the Bears. They won’t be able to run. I now that Bulger is capable and he has capable receivers, but nothing you would expect to be good about the Rams ever seems to be good. I don’t know, considering I thought the line would be 4.5 points higher, I have to go with it. I’m still not sure about the Bears, but the Rams continue to prove me wrong when I think they should be better.

Bears -8.5

After the Rams hung around with the Patriots, I thought they'd be competitive, but I was wrong. They went into New York and got beat by 86 points. The Bears haven't really been particularly impressive. Here's my question: if Devin Hester was so good at returning punts and he kinda sucks at receiver, why not have him line up 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage and throw a pop up to him and have him work his magic?

Bears -8.5

Buffalo @ Kansas City (+3) I don’t know, NO was in the dumps and got 4.5 last week, does Buffalo get the same? Will they win? Week five, this probably would have been 14. I think this should be about +1. Both teams aren't very good. You may be right though.

Actual Line: (+3)

Gotta love the 3 point lines. KC could win, but I said that last week too. The Bills just can’t win any more and the guy that ripped me for doubting the bills at the beginning of the season suddenly feels less sure of himself. The problem I have with this is that all the Bills have to do is hand off the ball and Lynch should win the game with a little help from the defense, but that didn’t seem to work at home last week. The KC offense actually looks ok this days too. I think the Bills win the time of possession battle here, but the way they are going its hard to predict a win. KC is improving, and Buffalo is regressing, but I think they are the better team. Lynch is the difference here, they aren’t going to lose the rest of their games, and this is one they SHOULD win. Although, the more I think about it, the Buffalo defense is banged up and not helping out. The way this season goes, home dogs are winning.

Chiefs +3

Should win is the operative term here. I've been betting (and mostly losing) on Kansas City, but they keep the games and gambling interesting. The Bills haven't impressed me yet this year because they don't beat anyone good. Edwards is overrated, Lynch may be the ugliest player in the league, and their only good defender is Pozluzny. I'm taking the points.

Kansas City +3

Tampa Bay @ Detroit (+10.5) That’s generous. I said +13 here. Detroit is bad. And you are definitely being generous.

Actual Line: (+8.5) Wow

I keep finding myself behind all the favorites and sucking every week, but seriously, how is Tampa only giving 8.5? I guess the Lions have kept it close…wow, I was expecting to find last week to be the only close loss, but they have lost by less then 9 5 of their last 6 games. Granted they got blown out in one of the two Culpepper games, and I wouldn’t trust him to hold my ipod, but maybe we are on to something here. They don’t win, but do they lose by less then 9? The Bucs biggest road win of the year was by 6. Lets go for it.

Lions +8.5

That line is amazing. Culpepper did keep the game close last week against the Panthers, but can the Lions count on him two weeks in a row? We're talking about the Lions here. I do feel like this is a little bit of a trap game. We say "wow only 8.5, I'm taking the Bucs and collecting." I gotta go with the idea that the oddsmakers know more than I do.

Lions +8.5

San Francisco @ Dallas (-6) And Dallas destroys them, I bet they get on a roll after this one. I started at six, but moved it to 7.5. Not too far off, but I may be giving the Cowboys too much love.

Actual Line: (-10) or maybe not

You’d think being 4 points off the line would deter me. Well it won’t, like I said, Dallas gets an old fashion blow out here. This game should be over by halftime. I wouldn’t be surprised if SF gets some back in the second half keeps it respectable, but I can’t expect that to happen. Dallas has a chip on their shoulder and they start coming together this week after squeaking one out last week. Then again, the Niners are a much better team with Sean Hill running the show, but I still can’t buy it.

Cowboys -10

Agreed. I was a little closer with my 7.5 and I still think ten might be too much, but the Cowboys should be a lot better than the 49ers. The 49ers get a lot of their wins from the division, which isn't saying much. It's like someone saying, "I get laid all the time" and the other person responding, "yea, but with slam pigs."

Cowboys -10