Week 8

Oz (in black) thinks you should bet on the guy who is "6'5 rocket, laser arm." Clay (in blue) thinks differently.

7. St Louis @ New England (-7):

The oddsmakers make it hard for the Patriots, but the Pats don't really make it easy on gamblers either. St. Louis is playing pretty well in the last three weeks, and the Patriots are wildly inconsistant. Did anyone expect a 41-7 win over the Broncos? I sure didn't. Now Brady has had surgery four times and that's not really okay. But Matt Cassel won offensive player of the week. WHAT?! The world is going mad.

New England -7

Yeah, it is hard to predict what either of these teams will do. I am buying into this Rams team right now, though, because I thought before the season that they would be good. I attributed a lot of their problems from last year to injuries. I was wrong from the start, but because of that, I am not ready to call those wins flukes. I think they are competitive for the rest of the year, and I guess in their division, that means they still have a shot. I wouldn’t be surprised if either team blew the other out, but given that I think the Rams could win this outright, I have to take a full touchdown.

Rams +7

6. Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-9):

I believe Westbrook is returning this weekend meaning my fantasy team will still lose but not by as much. Atlanta isn't a bad team. The Eagles are good at giving quarterbacks fits (watch: the game with the Patriots last year), which I expect to happen this weekend against Matt Ryan. Ryan is a good quarterback, but he won't be able to do much against this defense.

Philly -9

I don’t know, Matt Ryan hasn’t been sacked very many times this year, and he has shown he can play well under pressure. Teams off of a bye are always scary, and the Atlanta defense is not scary, which leads to believe the Eagles will score a lot. The Eagles defense is one of those that either completely shuts you down, or doesn’t do anything to stop you. I am done referring to Matt Ryan as a rookie QB because I think he is legit. I think Philly gets up early and Ryan can’t do it all himself when they have to abandon the run game. I want to take the points, but I think the defense lets them down.

Philly -9

5. Tampa Bay @ Dallas (no line yet):

Tampa has been playing great as of late. I've bet against them twice in the past two weekends and lost, so there's no way I'm going against them right now. The Cowboys look like they're in a little bit of trouble. The Bucs defense is good enough to keep the Cowboys honest and their offense has been running smoothly. Without the spread listed, I'll take the bucs money line.

Tampa Bay (ML)

I can’t get behind the cowboys right now…does that sound homoerotic? Brad Johnson looked terrible last week, and one would think a week as the starter in practice should help, he isn’t that bad, right? The problem is that Tampa is pretty good, they play solid D and the offense has been more productive then expected. Dallas has had a terrible pass defense, so it isn’t a stretch to expect the Bucs to score some points her and win on the road. The ‘boys are in trouble, they could be screwed by the time Romo is back.

Tampa Bay +2

4. Arizona @ Carolina (-4.5): The Cardinals need to win on the road if they want some respect, Carolina will be a tough place to do that.

After getting their ass kicked, I feel like Carolina needs to prove something. Arizona can't stop a team that's physical and that's what the Panthers are. A few three and outs by the Cardinals offense will be a catalyst to Carolina controlling the clock. I need Fitzgerald to have a big game, but i'm not sure he can do enough to win this game for them.

Carolina -4.5

I don’t know what you are watching, but the Panthers beat the crap out of New Orleans last week. Another big offense, can the Panthers do it again. Arizona is actually 9^th against the run this year, so the Panthers will likely have to do a bit more to score against a somewhat improved defense. I think the Panthers are too good at home, the Cardinals haven’t shown anything on the road yet, and Carolina is a more balanced offense and defense. Considering the season we have had, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona wins outright. No two weeks are the same in the NFL this year.

Panthers -4.5

3. New York Giants @ Pittsburgh (-3.5): I am a little surprised they are giving three, a bye helps. I am interested to see what happens here. I think it will mostly be defense.

I know Pittsburgh is 5-1 but I'm not buying into it yet. This would be a three-point spread for whatever team is at home. The Giants look unstoppable running the ball right now and that sets up the passing game for Manning. If the Giants win this game big, which I'm expecting them to do, does that put them #1 in the power rankings? For me, yes.

New York +3.5

The Steelers should look good off of the bye, they usually do, but their O line has been a problem, and that is looking right into the Giant’s strength. I actually picked up the Giants defense this week as a fill in, because I think they get to “Ben” a lot. The Giants will struggle with consistency all year, especially against inferior opponents, but I think they are flat out better then the Steelers. Would I be surprised if the Steelers won, of course not, but I have to take the points with the team that I think should win straight up, and no, a win should put them at #2 behind the undefeated Titans who are going to….I guess I am getting ahead of myself.

Giants +3.5

2. San Diego @ New Orleans @ London (+3):

Take the under in this one. Seriously. It'll be high, but both teams are in friggin London. Should be a dreadful game actually.

San Diego -3

I totally agree. The total is set at 45, definitely lower because it is in London. I was reading today that LT met with the coaches and says they need to run the ball more. If he is going to be playing, he needs the ball. The Chargers are 28^th in the league in time of possession, because when they score, it is fast, and the defense sucks. They need to start controlling the clock like they used to, and this is definitely going to be a game where the best running team wins. Deuce should have a nice day, but I have to think without Reggie in the rain, the Saints won’t be as dynamic. LT gets the ball, Chargers control the clock for the first time all year, and come back to the States with a win.

Chargers -3

1. Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-4):

This game would virtually eliminate the Colts from winning their division. That's big. Do the Titans have the resolve to make this happen? Do the Colts not have a little advantage in experience here? It would not surprise me a bit to have the Colts win by three scores more or less announcing, "hey, guess what? We're still here."

Indy +4

That would surprise me. The Titans defense is very good, and the Colts offense hasn’t been. Dom Rhodes doesn’t scare anyone, and apparently neither does Peyton. Chris Johnson and even Fat Lendale White should have a field day against the worst run d in the league, therefore controlling the clock. I don’t see a single advantage (I guess you could say experience) that the Colts have in this game. I don’t think the Titans are the dominant team in the NFL this year, their schedule has been big, but in this game, they are the better team. Straight up, hands down. Home field helps too. Chris Johnson over 150, Titans win 24-16.

Titans -4

Week 8

Barack may be good, but Brett Favre would kick his ass in an election. Oz in black, Clay in blue.

14. Washington @ Detroit (+9):

I'd like to point out that Washington doesn't really blow people out, but Detroit refuses to keep things close. Remember playing basketball when you were younger and when you played against an older cousin or something they'd spot you a few points? I think they should do this here. Start the Lions up 10-0. That way the Redskins will be a little more comfortable because they can score a few times and the game will be close. Since this won't happen. I'm expecting the Redskins to win something like 20-7 with a dumb score from the Lions coming late.

Washington -9

This should happen, but how many points do the Chiefs get, ten won’t do it? The Skins don’t blow people out, but they gave up a late score last week for a back door cover by the Browns. Detroit is bad. Is Orlovsky the QB of the future? If not, why would you start him over Kitna? This doesn’t make sense to me.

Redskins -9

13. Kansas City @ New York Jets (-13):

Ladies and gentlemen, you're 2008 Kansas City Chiefs. Larry Johnson, product of the classy program in State College, Pennsylvania, would JoePa be happy with your behavior? I read a really touching article about Johnson being really sensitive and shy during his breakout year a couple years back. Apparently that has changed, huh?

No scenario here is surprising. The Jets just lost the the Raiders despite being given every opportunity to win. Could Brett Favre throw seven touchdowns this weekend? Sure. Will it happen? No.

Here is an interesting thought: who's more of a media darling, Favre or Obama? I'm giving the edge to Favre because if he were running for president, I think he'd win. Well, he'd win Wisconsin in a landslide. And all 3,408 analysts from the pregame shows would vote for him too.

Kansas City +13

What year do you think they stop adding more people to the pregame shows? Is it when they can’t fit any more people on one shot? Do you think they are all required to get stoned before the show so they will laugh a lot? Who runs these things?

Favre over Obama in a land slide. The Jets aren’t very good, and I attribute a lot to the offensive play calling. They are actually stopping the run, but they baffle me every week with their play calling. If Favre throws, this is a blowout, if not, KC could keep…nevermind, the Chiefs have no offense at all. They also suck at defense. I think the Springfield College pride could cover this spread with their option offense.

Jets -13

12. Oakland @ Baltimore (-6.5):

Neither. They are not good, but they're not bad either. They are in the middle and will probably be 8-8 this year just to prove my point. The defense is getting old, the offense is getting younger. That's odd. I think they should just rebuild.

Oakland almost blew the Jets game last week and I'm not sold they can score against the Ravens, but I'm taking a chance here.

Oakland +6.5

Oakland won’t be able to run on Baltimore and I wouldn’t trust Jamarcus Russell to throw me the remote across a room with wood flooring, let alone to win a football game without a running game.

Baltimore -6.5

11. Cincinnati @ Houston (-9.5):

It's a good thing Fitzpatrick is smart. At least he has something to fall back on. Since I'm being educated at Harvard, can I be an NFL quarterback? I can't be any worse than him. Houston is impressive, I think. They won't make the playoffs, but they may be a couple years away. This is a good spoiler team right now.

HOUSTON -9.5

Agreed about Houston, thought the same thing going into the season and they had a tough time getting started. I thought I had Cincy figured out as the team that continued to lose, but barely, and now with Fitzpatrick, I guess I have them figured out too. They suck.

Houston -9.5

10. Cleveland @ Jacksonville (-7):

Did you expect Jacksonville to be tougher this year? I mean tougher like, "oh shit you don't want to stand toe to toe with them." Soft teams would be a little scared going in because they knew they'd get smacked in the mouth on both sides of the ball. I'm not sure I feel this way. Cleveland has been playing better. This could be an upset, but it could also be a "hey, we're still way tougher than the Browns." I'm going with the latter.

Jacksonville -7

I thought Winslow wasn’t playing this week? Cleveland is actually much improved on defense, but I bet this bye helped out Jacksonville a lot, and we see that “tough” team down the stretch. Not sure if they will challenge Tenn for the title, but a wild card sounds right to me. By the way, can you believe Tenn is running away with this division? Is this at all similar to Tampa beating out the Sox and Yankees?

Jacksonville -7

9. Buffalo @ Miami (+1):

This is an intriguing match in the AFC East. Both teams could legitimately win this division and both teams have been wildly inconsistent. Miami plays great against two of the "better" teams in the league then shits the bed. Buffalo looks unstoppable at times, but they also look awful and inexperienced. When in doubt, go with the home team, right?

MIAMI +1

Right. I think Buffalo is a good team, but they aren’t one of the best teams. They have a couple good wins in there, but against teams that can control the clock and play some tough defense, I think they will get beat. Either that or teams that do what Arizona did to them and jump ahead and cruise because the Bills offense isn’t explosive. I think Miami steps up for this game and hits Buffalo in the mouth. It will be close, but like you said…

Miami +1

8.Seattle @ San Francisco (-4.5):

There's not one game I would rather watch less than this one. I'm serious. I'd watch any other game. San Francisco just fired their coach. They're either getting their ass kicked or winning big.

SAN FRANCISCO -4.5

I don’t think the firing will affect them much because Nolan didn’t run the offense and the defense sucked anyway. If Hasselbeck were here, I would take the points, but Seneca Wallace is not good. When your best receiver catches one ball all night like last week, then your offense is not working. San Fran won’t win many more this year, but when you get to play Seattle, KC, Detroit or Cincy twice, you are almost guaranteed two wins.

Niners -4.5

Week 7 pt. 2

Did you realize the Packers haven't had cheerleaders since 1988? When I looked up Packers cheerleaders, this picture came up. Are you serious?

The following are the top seven picks for week 7 of the NFL season. This time, Clay is in BLUE, while I'm in black.

7. Cleveland @ Washington (-7)

These teams are probably a little off their value, with Washington off of an upset loss and Cleveland the other way around. Still, this line makes sense. The Redskins are sort of an enigma to me. They play good defense, have a good running back and a QB that “takes care of the ball.” Nothing exciting about them, but they appear at times to be one of the best teams in the league. Meanwhile Cleveland had a horrendous start, not getting anywhere near expectations until Monday night. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cleveland gave them a tough game, with a much improved defense. Hard not to get on the Browns bandwagon here, especially since I don’t totally buy into the skins.

Browns +7

That's a pretty solid point about it being hard not to get on the bandwagon. You know I was on the Browns to begin to season then jumped ship. They were impressive on Monday night against the defending champs (and they cost me a three team parlay). I have a hard time with Washington because any scenario fits them. Could they blow the Browns out? Yes. Could they win a close game? Yes. Could they lose a close game? Yup. Could Cleveland blow them out? Yes. No idea here. I'm going with my gut here, but I don't think the Redskins turn the ball over like they did last week. They're coming home after a tough loss.

Washington -7

6. New Orleans @ Carolina (-3)

The home teams keep winning in the NFC South. The Saints play in Carolina and then head to London. Carolina was a disappointment on the road last week, but they have been tough at home. These are opposite teams, one wins through the air, the other wins with defense and the ground game. Delhomme does enough to keep you honest, which makes them well rounded. Because of Gramatica, the Saints need this win more, but can a road team get through here. This is a tough one, should be a good game, but I have to take the home team because the Saints have just made too many mistakes, even at home.

Panthers -3

I would argue that this should be the top game of the week. It's an interesting matchup all the way around. Drew Brees is on pace to throw for more yards than most people travel in a year. Whoever owns him in fantasy football is pretty pleased with his 350 yard games every week. Also, people who own Reggie Bush (I do) are very happy because he scores twice a week. It's a good thing.

The Panthers are pretty tough to call. They also lost me a six (SIX!!) team parlay last weekend. I had made three parlays last week and I usually make one big one based on games I like. I never really expect to win the big wins, but I won five of six. I had the Panthers getting 3 points and felt pretty good about my bets. Then the Buccaneers blow them out. This is a revenge bet.

Saints +3

5. Minnesota @ Chicago (-3)

Another tight game, this is a tough week, a lot of 3 points spreads. I keep betting against Chicago because of my original feelings about them, but they are better then I give them credit for. The Vikings are actually 3-1 with Ferotte at the helm, but you have to throw to beat the Bears, and I don’t know if MInn can do that. Both of these teams stop the run and run the ball on offense. Their weaknesses on defense are both in the secondary, but neither team has the weapons to win through the air. Should be boring as hell. Chicago is at home and looks more dynamic to this point on offense.

Bears -3

Talk about an old school NFC battle here, huh? I also have been pretty mean towards the Bears. They actually aren't terrible. What a game last weekend against the Falcons though. It was great because after they went down and scored with 11 seconds left the announcers were talking about the Bears like "they're one of the best teams in the NFC" blah blah then they let Matt Ryan play catch to set up Jason Elam for the TD. The Bears, coming off that loss, aren't going to be too easy on the Vikings this week. I'd take the Bears giving ten.

Bears -3

4. Baltimore @ Miami (-3)

Baltimore is overrated after a strong start against shitty teams. Miami is underrated from last year and a slow start. They should have won last week and they will win this week. The Baltimore defense is good, but not dominant, and Miami is getting it done on offense somehow. I don’t see the Ravens getting much done on offense and I think Miami picks up another W. I think this team could be dangerous in the second half of the season.

Dolphins -3

I hate that I agree with your statement about Miami. I've always hated the Dolphins and I can't believe they're better than the Patriots. How about the lucky bastard who bets on te Dolphins to win the AFC East every year just because he's a loyal fan? They were like +2000 to win the East and they might actually do it. They're a good ballclub.

Dolphins -3

3. Denver @ New England (-3)

Poor Patriots, they had one of (if not the) best offenses ever, and one guy goes down and they suck. They really suck. The Denver defense could make them feel better, but I don’t think the defense can stop Denver. I love taking points in a Denver game because they have trouble blowing teams out when the defense can’t stop anyone. When the offense on the other side is struggling, I can get behind the Broncos, even on the road. I would love if I was wrong here, though, and the Chargers would have a shot at evening up with the Donkeys.

Broncos +3

Brandon Marshall is going to catch 35 balls on Monday night. I just threw up in my mouth.

Broncos +3

2. San Diego @ Buffalo (pick)

The Chargers travel all the way up and across the country and play early in the morning. Teams do not have a good record in these situations. Not to mention they head straight to London from here. They have been having 7AM meetings and 10am practice to try to acclimate themselves to the time change, though. Like the travel and time isn’t an advantage, Buffalo is coming off of a bye, which sounds a lot like the SD trip to Miami a couple of weeks ago. That one didn’t turn out so well. I have to have faith as a fan, and I think the Chargers are the better team. Would I be surprised if they lost, no, but I would be pissed off. Trent Edwards doesn’t scare me, and unless it rains like it did in Miami I have faith the Chargers offense can continue to roll.

Chargers pick

The Chargers looked pretty good against a Brady-less Patriots last week. I'm not willing to say you'd have won if #12 was there. The Bolts were solid offensively. I'm not sold on their defense because they faced Matt Cassel at quarterback. And we can't score after first and goal from the 1.

Bills pk

1. Indianapolis @ Green Bay (+1)

So we finally hear that Peyton had a second surgery, and does that mean last week is finally got healthy? I think that is probably the case. Rhodes can step in for Addai pretty seamlessly, I think, and GB defense has had its struggles this year. Ryan Grant should(?) be able to run all over the defense, so expect a lot of scoring here. The Packers are tough at home, but is Indy catching fire here. I think the offenses will rule this game, and I honestly have no idea who is going to win. Hard not to get behind the Colts seeing how they played last week, but that was a terrible offense and a banged up secondary. I would like to see the Packers win, and they are playing at home, so that’s where I will be.

Packers +1

Here's what's pissing me off, ready? Everyone starts talking all the trash about Eli being the better QB of the Manning family. Really? Peyton has a rough start and all of a sudden Eli "I still can't fucking believe they didn't call me in the grasp in the super bowl" Manning is better? That's crap. Now, Peyton has one good game and it's all "oh, Peyton Manning is back." He was never gone. I hate announcers.

Indy -1

Week 7

The following are Clay and my picks for week seven of the NFL season. I'm in black, Clay is in blue.

14. Tennessee @ Kansas City (+9)

Shouldn't be much of a game here. The Titans look good. If Tennessee wins, they're 6-0. That's pretty impressive but a huge leap to take. They are playing at Arrowhead, where the Chiefs killed the Broncos earlier this year. I want to say Kansas City keeps it close, but I'm not sure they're closer than two scores.

Tennessee (-9)

That Denver game completely ruined my week. I lost a couple of parlays, a teaser and a lot straight up in that game. It was one of my favorite lines of the year, and I got destroyed. I am not going to let that sway me, though. KC is not good on either side of the ball, and I can’t imagine them getting anything done against the Titans defense. I think the Titans are 6-0, and I don’t think it is close. Baltimore kept it close, but they have a very good defense, the Chiefs don’t, anywhere.

Titans -9

13. Pittsburgh @ Cincinatti (+9.5)

I'm just not sold on the Steelers offense right now. They're defense is always really good and "Ben" seems to do just enough to win. Well, that's always been the case. The Steelers have always been a defense/run offense oriented team that gets enough from their QB to win. Remember, Tommy Maddux was their QB a few years back and they went into the playoffs. I don't think they have enough firepower to blow out the Bengals though.

CINCY +9.5

Are they coming off of a bye? They could easily roll in this game, but they haven’t been great on the road, and Cincinatti seems to keep it close more often then not lately. I like the Bengals to do just enough this week. Which felon gets it done, though? Fitzpatrick is the qb, I don’t know. I am with Cincy and the points today, but who knows tomorrow.

Bengals +9.5

12. Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-10.5)

I think this is a tough line because Tampa is tough to read. One week they can't do anything offensively, the next week they beat a 4-1 team by four scores. The initial thought is that Hasselbeck will play? I still don't think that's enough to win, but keep it close? Probably. I don't see the Buccaneers scoring 30 again.

Seattle +10.5

I think Tampa is much better at home then on the road. I think Seattle is bad everywhere, especially on the road. Hasselbeck is not playing, and it looks like Seneca Wallace will be healthy enough to play, but does that matter? This is a huge line, but they will probably cover it with ease. TB has won their 3 home games by an average of 16 ppg, and that was against three teams with a winning record,

Tampa -10.5

11. Dallas @ St Louis (+6.5)

Good call on this being a very uninteresting game. The Cowboys are about two arrests from being the Bengals. A player-friendly coach, an unruly clubhouse, and a crazy owner don't mix very well. This team could go 13-3 and get bounced in the first round of the playoffs because of the mercurial temperment there. You don't see a well-discplined team on a roll just destroying the Cowboys in their own stadium?

Dallas -6.5 (even if Romo sits)

St Louis is really really bad, and they didn’t win me over with the victory last week. Sure, I could see them getting better, but Dallas should be able to do plenty on the ground to win this game. Who’d have thought the line would be this low. A week ago, this line is 13.5. Not having Romo is huge, but they have enough weapons on offense that a steady veteran that won’t try to do too much should be able to come away with a win. I can’t say it would completely surprise me if St Louis covered or even won this one, but I can’t bet on them to do so.

I am actually hearing something that Romo may actually try to play? I wonder if that is better or worse. How long until Roy Williams makes an impact, because they could be really really good on offense once he does.

Cowboys -6.5

10. Detroit @ Houston (-9)

Houston giving nine at home, huh? That's absurd. They played well last week against the Dolphins and squeeked out a win in the final moments. I like that resiliance esepcially after that loss to Indianapolis.

Detroit on the other hand gave their 2nd receiver to Dallas for the rights to the "Debbie Does..." series. Cool move, Detroit.

Houston -9

Hahahaha, I actually think it is a good trade for Detroit. They get three more picks, including two in the first two rounds, and they get rid of salary. It is a rebuilding move, which should have happened two years ago. Detroit sucked already, and they have a hurt qb that just lost his best receiver. Orlovsky does not keep his team in the game here. It is weird to see a team with one win giving nine, but somehow I love this line.

Houston -9

9. San Francisco @ NYG (-11)

I'm surprised this line isn't lower after the Giants' stinkbomb on Monday night. There are two logical ways this team goes, at home, the following week: 1.) They shit all over the 49ers stomachs or 2.) They suck because they realize they're not invincible.

I'm going the first option. They'll realize they can be beat if they overlook someone and they're headed back home with a vendetta.

NYG -11

Did you really just say shit on their stomachs? Really, that is gross. I could have gone with pissed on their head, or just plain shit on them, but adding the stomach part gives you more of a visual, and a creepy one at that. I am much less interested in my California burrito that just arrived, thanks. Last time I took the team looking to get revenge, Dallas shit the bed, not on the Bengals stomachs, the Giants are probably a different team, though. I have been behind SF a bit much the last few weeks, and they really aren’t very good. They got beat by 14 last week, but it was closer then the score. NO blew them out on the road, and the Giants are capable of that. They beat Seattle 44-3, they should win by two TDs right? The over may be better here. Because the Giants should want a statement here, I am going with them, but I don’t love it.

Giants -11

8. NYJ @ Oakland (+3)

Oakland is another team in shambles right now. They've got two potential (down the road, I mean) 1,000 yards rushers in Fargas and McFadden and a young quarterback. In the long run, this team will be fine because they're good defensively. What I mean is the front office is a mess after this Lane Kiffen thing. Al Davis needs the boot pretty soon. The Raiders will be 6-10 this year.

Jets -3

The Raiders will be lucky to be 6-10 this year. They have a good running game, and they should get some quality yards on the ground vs the Jets, but they have no threat what so ever through the air and that is brutal. Their defense is solid, but they just can’t get it done as a team. They blow every lead they get, and they flat out don’t know how to win. The Jets are hard to figure out, but against the bottom of the NFL, I think the Jets will thrive, and that is what they are looking at for most of their schedule.

Jets -3

Week Six part 2

Ladies and gentlemen, Kelli from the Jacksonville Jaguars

Here are the top seven games for week six in the NFL. Happy wagering.

7. Oakland @ New Orleans (-7.5):

Wait. Did that really happen? You've got to be shitting me. When I was in high school, the juniors on the track team would always play the senior on the track team in a full-out fast pitch baseball game. Now, I'm not that great at baseball, but like your team, we were down a run and I hit a double, putting the tying run in scoring position. The next THREE batters recorded outs and we lost. That said, I'd be bullshit if I were Reggie Bush, but that was an odd game. How can any team total over 700 yards and lose? It's just the nature of the game sometimes. It's all about the scoreboard at the end of the game.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5

Yeah, and New Orleans blows all the little things. Gramatica is a tool bag and if they had a real kicker they would have at least two more wins now. Oakland has been crappy for a few years now, but they have always seemed to keep games close. I don’t understand how a team can be in so many games and lose just about all of them. They just don’t know how to win. That being said, they tend to keep it close with good defense and a good running game. I wouldn’t be surprised if NO blew it up, but I have to take a points with the fourth quarter lead blowers.

Oakland +7.5

6. Carolina @ Tampa Bay (1):

Carolina isn't a boring team to watch, but the Buccaneers are. The Panthers are a lot like the Patriots of a few years ago. They weren't explosive, but they won games. Lots of them. This Carolina team reminds me of them. Good running backs, efficient quarterback, great coach. The Panthers go into the pirate ship and rob those pussies.

Carolina +1

I agree, Tampa Bay is boring and they don’t do anything really well. They are a good all around team, but I don’t understand what happened last week. Tampa can be tough on any given week, but Carolina is just a bit stronger at everything.

Panthers +1

5. Philadelphia @ San Francisco (+4.5):

So it Philly getting in the top five because they're in the NFC East? I don't think this game is very interesting. San Francisco isn't that good of a football team and I'm pretty sure they never will be. The Eagles are better than the 49ers.

Philly -4.5

See I think that the Niners are actually a decent team. Their defense isn’t horrible, and their offense is pretty explosive. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Niners even win this game, especially with no Westbrook. The Eagles are poorly coached and they always seem to let down. They have the potential to be one of the best teams in the league, but they just don’t get it done. In spite of you, and because they aren’t very good on the road, especially three time zones, I am taking the Dogs. This line seems too low, but I still don’t want to take it, which is why I like the home dog here.

Niners +4.5

4. New England @ San Diego (-6):

I have two things to say: 1.) If you're not coming to the new place, we're no longer friends. 2.) If the Chargers can't beat the Patriots without Tom Brady, they never will.

New England +6

I can’t believe they didn’t beat the patriots two years ago when Reche Caldwell was their best receiver. Both teams look like crap. The Chargers at least have hope because their injuries aren’t as series, yet. All I have to say is they better win here. I think LT should be sitting if he is hurting because Sproles healthy is better then LT hurt, and sitting out usually helps you to recover.

Chargers -6

3. Baltimore @ Indianapolis (-5):

Are you mailing it in at the end of the picks? I'm really not okay with all of this. Indianapolis isn't really that good and it pisses me off. It pisses me off because the "top" teams in the AFC are Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Denver. The Patriots, with Tom Brady, are better ... WAY better ... than all of them. They're better than Dallas, they're better than New York, and they're better than the rest of the NFL. I'm about half a bottle deep right now and I should be able to finally be pissed about all of this. Remember when Michael Jordan retired, Hakeem Olajuwon won MVP and the Rockets won the NBA title. All the while, everyone was all, "this is kinda bullshit. We all know the best player is playing baseball and if he were here things would be different." Yup, that's how I feel.

(Okay, well here's where I am rational. The NBA was ten times better when Jordan was in the league? Why? Because he was the best and most exciting player? Because he was the most intense competitor? No. It was because with him on the floor, everyone stepped their game up. Brady is the same way. Everyone who played the Patriots last year played their very best ball because they needed to in order to match Brady's combination of talent and determination. That competition is what's lacking the NFL this year. Okay, back to me being irrational.)

The NFL is terrible this year. FUCK. I need a refill.

Baltimore (+5)

Indy looks like crap. Actually I haven’t even watched a game yet, but they aren’t beating anyone. I believe that Joe Flacco will not give away a game like Sage did (by the way, I love this name. People get shit for calling Ben Roethlisburger “Ben”, but Sage is just fun to say. I can spell his last name, but is Sage fun?). Indy can’t stop the run, and that’s pretty much what Baltimore does. Last week was the shot Indy had to show they still could get it done on offense and they didn’t do it. So until further notice, I consider the Colts offense as subpar. Wow, what a difference a year makes.

Baltimore +5

2. Dallas @ Arizona (+5):

This is off topic, but I'm watching American Gangster right now, and I decided I need to befriend a 35-40 year old black man for the following reason: I want a CD of 1970's R&B. We're talking Marvin Gaye, Nina Simone, Sam Cooke, etc. I don't want any of that bullshit iTunes suggestions. I want someone who used to listen to 45's in their parents smokey apartments and give me some CLASSICS. I would really be okay with all of this. On that note: I've been listening to a lot of Lauryn Hill lately. She's unreal. I don't even care if she hates white people.

Dallas (-5)

Dallas doesn’t seem to be all there right now. I don’t know what is wrong with them, but I am nervous for them at Arizona, who is much better at home then on the road. I hate white people too, ok, that’s not true, but I hate this game. I want to take Arizona, but I can’t do it. Dallas has the better team and should win here, but I have a feeling come Sunday I will be telling someone, “Damnit, I thought Arizona was going to win, but I didn’t pick them.”

Dallas -5

1. Jacksonville @ Denver (-3.5):

Good pick for numero uno. I don't have much else to say. I think in the NFL P.B (Post-Brady) we have these games to look forward to. The Jaguars are pretty good. They're not outstanding. Same goes for the Broncos. They're both two of the best teams in the league, I guess. Would it surprise me if either team won the Super Bowl? Probably one more than the other, but who cares. Whatever.

The NFL: Get on fucking board.

Jacksonville +3.5

I have a feeling Denver is going to crash eventually. This should be tough with a couple guys injured on offense and a Jags team that is very physical. We know the Jags won’t have trouble scoring, and the Broncos shouldn’t, but anytime a quality team is getting 3 points or more against Denver, I will take them because Denver can’t stop an offense driving in a close game.

Jags +3.5

Week Six picks part 1

Here are the first of the week six picks. Clay is in black, I'm in blue.

So last week I mentioned that I rated most of the games very high and had a tough time deciding which ones were the best, well this week it is the complete opposite. I only ranked 3 games over a 6, and can not believe what makes up the top 5, let alone the bottom 5. The Chargers vs Patriots game would have been one of the top games to look forward to all season, before Brady got hurt, the defense started to show its age, and the Chargers lost Merriman and the ability to be good. I can sum up the Chargers season with one visual from last weeks game. With the Dolphins on their final drive of the game, just trying to get first downs and keep the Charger’s offense off the field, Stephen Cooper (in his first game back from steroid suspension) made a nice tackle near the Dolphins sideline. He gets up talks shit to the sideline and kisses his bicep. Really?! You are losing and you can’t stop the offense from running the ball right up the gut even though a first time NFL viewer would know that is what they will do, and you are talking shit and kissing your bicep? This team is made up of talented douche bags that only care about themselves, and that’s why they can’t win as a team (at least on defense).

That's a hell of a rant there. You could be completely right though. Lots of talent, no heart. The Chargers look like they all think they should win individual trophies, thinking that should win them team titles. Not the case. Do your job, trust the others will do theirs, and good things will come. Tuesday Morning QB was good this week. Check that out. (It's related to what I just said, I promise)

Anyway, now that that is out of my system, on to the rankings.

14. St Louis @ Washington (-13.5): The worst team in the NFL vs maybe the second best team, at this point at least. The rams are terrible and have one hope, a let down after two of the biggest road wins in a long time for the Redskins.

You're right. I think Washington is a top four team in the league right now. You're telling me Clinton Portis doesn't rush for 545 yards this weekend against the Rams? Two touchdowns is a lot of points to give an NFL team. This spread is too high to trust. I agree with the letdown game, but there's no way they lose to the Rams at home. Rams cover.

St. Louis +13.5

The Rams have been destroyed in every game they have played to this point. Even their last game at home vs Buffalo they were leading and ending up losing by over 20. Bye week doesn't help, and neither does a letdown, Redskins roll against one of the worst NFL teams ever.

Redskins -13.5

13. NYG @ Cleveland (+9): Cleveland couldn’t even score on Cincy, and Derek Anderson will spend most of his last start on ground.

Without a doubt. Let the Brady Quinn era begin. The Giants are going to blow the Browns out. They've got Plaxico back, no one on the Browns is going to be able to tackle Brandon Jacobs, and Anderson should be looking up at the Cleveland skyline (which disgusting and polluted, um, I mean beautiful, I may add).

New York Giants -9

I can't argue, the Giants are hard to trust sometimes, but they are way better than this Browns team. They should roll here, all game long. Do you think Cleveland's offense ever comes back?

Giants -9

12. Detroit @ Minnesota (-13.5): Do you see the common theme at the bottom? Terrible terrible terrible.

Wow. You've got one team that is incapable of doing anything on offense OR defense and another team incapable of scoring touchdowns, yet they're given a two touchdown line. This game could be 15-0 on all field goals. Detroit may sneak out a score though. There's a JV cross country meet this weekend that I think will be more thrilling than this game. Think about that. Since when are there JV cross country meets? Do that many people like running now?

Minnesota -13.5

Detroit is just like St Louis, I won't be on them (again in Detroits case) until they play one single game close. Detroit may have the worst defense ever, and even MInnesota's struggling offense, which didn't struggle in a crazy game in New Orleans, should find their way to the end zone early and often. Another blow out in my mind.

Minnesota -13.5

11. Chicago @ Atlanta (+3): Do the Bears have the easiest schedule in the league? I said it last week, the Ravens are the best crappy team. There are more upsets up their sleeve…one here wouldn’t surprise me a bit.

I've been impressed with Matt Ryan. He played well against the Packers last week and I think the Falcons may give the Ravens a run for best crappy team. Or at least the most exciting to watch. When does Michael Vick get out of jail? He'll never go back to Atlanta , right? If he plays Atlanta , will he be trying to get revenge? Doubtful. People in Atlanta supported him, right? What if he was fighting Falcons instead of dogs? Is that even a crime? Speaking of animal crimes, did you hear about the 7 year old in Australia ? Allegedly, he broke into the zoo at night and started picking up lizards and turtles and threw them into the crocodile cage. What a twisted kid. Who is worse, him or Vick?

ATLANTA +3

I am starting to think Atlanta may, somehow, possibly, maybe be more then just the best crappy team. But that is only because most teams in the NFL (outside of the NFC East) appear to be crappy. I don't think Chicago is 6 points better then Atlanta, so I will take the points at home and smile.

Atlanta +3

10. Miami @ Houston (-3): Hard to say if Miami is a lot better then we thought or the Chargers and Pats are a lot worse then we thought. I think it’s a bit of both. Sage, that was about as graceful as my launch off of a chair on the dance floor at the wedding on Saturday when I almost killed a 5 ft girl.

You're probably right. The Chargers and Pats both regressed a little and the Dolphins got better. Ronnie Brown is a good player though. The Texans are in tough shape. When you blow a 17 point lead with four minutes left, morale goes down the toilet. Imagine being at the game as a die-hard Texan fan (if they exist)? It would have taken a lot to not charge the field or drive my car into oncoming traffic. Kind of like Lakers fans did after game 4 of the Finals.

Miami +3

I think Miami is pretty good. Part of that could be from watching them make my team look stupid last week, but they play some tough defense, and they can definately run the ball. They have a qb that won't win the game for you, but he is very capable and isn't likely to lose the game for you. Against a subpar team that just finished one of the biggest choke jobs (at home) that I have ever seen. I like Miami to stay hot. I wouldn't be suprised if Miami made some moves in a wide open division.

Miami +3

9. Green Bay @ Seattle (-1): The Green Bay defense is a little suspect these days, but Seattle can’t do anything well lately. Can you believe GB is getting a point at 0-3 Seattle (I don’t consider St Louis an NFL team). What is going on? Besides the Rams win, they have given up 37ppg.

If you're unaware, my students are taking the PSAT's in my classroom right now and I'm researching NFL picks. How does that work out? They work really hard and I don't. Oh well. Their papers are graded, progess reports are handed out, their test for Friday is made up, what else do they want?!?

Seattle at home? Packers fans losing faith in Rodgers?

SEATTLE -1

Man, Seattle got destroyed last week, and that was off of a bye with two starters back (sort of). Seattle will improve as the season goes by, but this is a must win for the Packers, and I have trouble imagine them losing this one. I guess it wouldn't suprise me if Seattle played their best game of the year here at home, but Green Bay is a better team all around, and Seattle is still hurting too much.

Green Bay +1

8. Cincinnati @ NYJ (-6): Does Cincy finally come out and score this week? This could be similar to that Arizona game with a lot of points.

Carson Palmer finally seems to have gotten some sort of groove going. Whether that is short lived or not, who really knows. The bottom line is that Palmer is a pretty good quarterback and before the first four weeks of the season, he was considered one of the top five. Everyone seems to be forgetting this.

I do think that Palmer, despite his woes thus far is still better than Brett Favre. However, his team is pretty bad. I was watching PTI the other day and, apparently, the Brown family (the Bengals owners) won't fire anyone during the year because they don't want to pay them off to resign. So at least we know Marvin Lewis' job is safe for another few months. This is probably a 6 win team in Cincinatti, but I agree with the theory this game is going to be like the Arizona game. Jets win, Bengals keep it within a touchdown.

Cincy +6

The Bengals offense has looked better recently, and against this defense, they may finally have one of those games we expect from this offense. I am glad that this week in fantasy when I play you, Palmer and Portis both play cupcake defenses, I can't wait to be 1-5. I agree that Cincy does enough to keep it close, hell, they almost did that in Dallas last week.

Bengals +6

Week five

This weekend I'm moving a few towns over, thus, I can't break down each of my picks for you, but I refuse to not share with you my thoughts. In blue is Clay. I'm in black. We'll be back next week.

14. Cincinnati @ Dallas (-17.5)

This line actually moved down to 17, which is much better. Palmer is only participating in running place in practice,

Kenny Watson is questionable, Dede Dorsey is out, Chris Perry has a hurt hamstring, but should play, if not you are looking at Cedric Benson. Cincinatti has no defense and now no offense. Why shouldn’t Dallas win this game 28-6? Ocho Cinco apparently told his cousin that he was going to have a good game this week. Well first of all, why does Lil’ Wayne have a blog on ESPN? And why is it on the front page? This guy lives in LSU, but his teams are the Packers, the Red Sox and UNC basketball. Seriously? Can we take this guy seriously as a sports fan?

Dallas -17.5

Cincy +17.5 -- Dallas plays their cheerleaders in the second half

13. Kansas City @ Carolina (-9.5):

Like I said before, I am not buying the Chiefs yet. They won’t be able to do what they did last week on offense. They are on the road now against a quality opponent and we will see that the Chiefs are who we thought they’d be.

Carolina -9.5

Carolina -9.5

12. Atlanta @ Green Bay (-7):

The Pack are hurting a bit, but I don’t think it matters with a rookie in Lambeau. The defense will be fired up and stack the line against Turner. Rodgers is a big question mark right now, but I think he plays. This is a must win for the Pack, and they are the better team. I hope Grant finally breaks out this week, if he is healthy enough, he should.

Pack -7

Atlanta +7

11. Chicago @ Detroit (+3.5):

I’m on all favorites so far, but I guess that is why we picked these as the worst games of the week, good team vs bad team. Detroit is coming off of a bye, which is good for a banged up Kitna, but Detroit can’t stop any offense, and Forte should have a big day. Detroit could keep this game close with a nice game plan, but the truth is, I haven’t seen anything yet that suggests they can win against anyone in the top 3/4ths of the league. That being said, I have a feeling here that Detroit is coming to come off of their bye at home against an overrated team, and get it done. Getting rid of their GM doesn’t make it better, but it may be one of those things that gives a team hope when they previously had none. It is something to be happy about and maybe they play looser and upset a team that really only has one solid offensive weapon, and a defense that is susceptible to the pass.

Lions +3.5

Detroit +3.5

10. San Diego @ Miami (+6.5):

Miami coming off of a bye doesn’t scare me, Ronnie Brown doesn’t scare me, and neither does Chad Pennington. The Chargers defense has the potential to shut this team down, if they do so, they will win by much more than this. Miami can pretty much scrap the rest of the season after the win in New England, and the Chargers need a run to get to the front of the AFC West. Not to mention they are way more talented. The questions I have are, does Chambers have an revenge factor here, and how soon until Antoine Cason takes over Antonio Cromartie’s job? One looks way better then the other so far.

Chargers -6.5

San Diego -6.5

9. Seattle @ NYG (-7):

I think the bye week was great for both teams, hopefully the Giants kept their focus, because this us against the world thing is their best ally. If they start getting cocky, they will fall. They have no Plax which is huge, he is without a doubt their best offensive player. The defense should get their share of hits on Hasselbeck, and I doubt that Branch and Engram will make a splash right away. I can guarantee the Giants are looking ahead to the big matchup with the Browns, so they should win this one relatively easily. I do think Seattle starts to get better and challenges for the honor of the worst team in the playoffs by winning the NFC West.

Giants -7

NYG -7

8. Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3): Adrian Peterson over 150, and he will be their best defense as well. The Saints can score on anyone, and they thrive in the passing game which is not the Vikings strength. If AP keeps pounding the ball and using the clock, then the defense has an easier job. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did this and it worked, but I like the home team against Gus Ferotte. The Vikings have one win, and it was at home and it was weird. I don’t know why the Panthers couldn’t do anything, but I think New Orleans can.

Saints -3

N.O. -3

7. New England @ San Francisco (+3):

This is one of my favorite lines of the week. Bill Belichick is arguably one of the best coaches every coming off of a bye. This team has a ton of talent (obviously, they lost one guy from a super bowl favorite team) and they just had to adjust right away from the loss of their qb. Now they had two weeks to figure out how to run the offense with a different qb. The SF defense is not that good, and I have faith that Belichick figured out how to score. The defense will do enough, and the Patriots will roll in those one against a team much less talented.

Patriots -3 (emphatically)

New England -3

6. Indianapolis @ Houston (+3):

Indy should have benefited from a week off, and they are a well coached, talented team. I still don’t think they will be up to the form we expect, and the defense is obviously worlds apart when Bob Sanders is playing. Slaton should have a field day, but I think the Indy line, now healthy, should give Peyton the time he needs. He didn’t play all preseason, and it showed, no he had two weeks to rest and get better with his team. I think the Colts offense comes back to form a bit this week.

Colts -3

Indy -3

5. Buffalo @ Arizona (-1):

Both of these teams fit the “how good are they really” category. After seeing the Cardinals defense last week, and the Bills score another come from behind win, I think the Bills are for real and the Cardinals are not. I am excited to see if I am right or wrong here, but I think the Bills offense has no trouble scoring, and the defense will make enough stops to actually carry a lead and win the game.

Buffalo +1

Buffalo +1

4. Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-4):

I think Pitt is at their peak for injuries and Jacksonville is crawling back from injuries. The Jags looked like they could be dead in the water a few weeks ago, but they have pulled out two close wins, and should feel a lot more comfortable. The Jags def hasn’t looked as good as it is supposed to, but they should get a boost playing against the shitty Pitt line, and their third string running back. I see Pitt throwing a lot, and Ben (yes, I call him by first name because I don’t know how to spell his last name) should be dirty by games end. I think this is close, and they could win by a field goal, but I cant bet on Pitt to do enough on the road when they just look beat up and tired.

Jacksonville -4

Jacksonville (if the line is under 5)

3. Tampa Bay @ Denver (-3):

Denver is coming off of a dirty loss, and come back to the friendly confines of Mile High, I’m still calling it that. Tampa is one of those teams that is rarely pretty to watch and you ask yourself how they won every time they do, but they win a lot. They are well coached, and play tough defense. I don’t think their defense stops the Broncos, but the Broncos couldn’t even stop Kansas City . The Bucs keep up the aggressive play calling on offense and beat a team that is only good on one side of the ball because they are the more well rounded team. Whenever you think the road dog can win straight up, you have to take the points.

Bucs +3

Tampa Bay +3

2. Washington @ Philadelphia (-5.5):

Westbrook does look like he will be back, and Philly should start to fly again. Washington has a great pass defense, so this is a tough matchup for the Eagles, but I think McNabb healthy is just too good to be stopped, at least in the first three quarters. Washington is a bit over valued after their surprise win in Dallas , and the Eagles are a bit under rated after their loss in Chicago . Washington I think is legit, but Philly is better. They will both score, but Philly at home with a more aggressive team on both sides of the ball wins this one by a TD.

Eagles -5.5

Washington +5.5

1. Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3):

I like this one for the same reasons I like the Buff vs Ari game, only I think both teams are better. Both of these teams have exceeded my expectations. I tend to think Tenn is the better team on both sides of the ball. Baltimore has been good because the offense has been effective and not made mistakes, while the defense has been great. Neither team has had very tough competitions so far, so it is nice to see them against each other. This is actually another of my favorite lines because I think the Tenn def terrorizes the Baltimore offense, and they win this one by two scores. The Titans have been a great bet all year because they don’t make a lot of mistakes on either side of the ball. Baltimore is the same, but I think their offense is a liability against good teams, and the Titans offense has been better. Kerry Collins is good when he doesn’t try to do too much, and Chris Johnson is a stud. I am starting to love this Titans team because they get great lines every week and continue to cover. Keep it rollin’.

Titans -3

Tennessee -3