Week five

This weekend I'm moving a few towns over, thus, I can't break down each of my picks for you, but I refuse to not share with you my thoughts. In blue is Clay. I'm in black. We'll be back next week.

14. Cincinnati @ Dallas (-17.5)

This line actually moved down to 17, which is much better. Palmer is only participating in running place in practice,

Kenny Watson is questionable, Dede Dorsey is out, Chris Perry has a hurt hamstring, but should play, if not you are looking at Cedric Benson. Cincinatti has no defense and now no offense. Why shouldn’t Dallas win this game 28-6? Ocho Cinco apparently told his cousin that he was going to have a good game this week. Well first of all, why does Lil’ Wayne have a blog on ESPN? And why is it on the front page? This guy lives in LSU, but his teams are the Packers, the Red Sox and UNC basketball. Seriously? Can we take this guy seriously as a sports fan?

Dallas -17.5

Cincy +17.5 -- Dallas plays their cheerleaders in the second half

13. Kansas City @ Carolina (-9.5):

Like I said before, I am not buying the Chiefs yet. They won’t be able to do what they did last week on offense. They are on the road now against a quality opponent and we will see that the Chiefs are who we thought they’d be.

Carolina -9.5

Carolina -9.5

12. Atlanta @ Green Bay (-7):

The Pack are hurting a bit, but I don’t think it matters with a rookie in Lambeau. The defense will be fired up and stack the line against Turner. Rodgers is a big question mark right now, but I think he plays. This is a must win for the Pack, and they are the better team. I hope Grant finally breaks out this week, if he is healthy enough, he should.

Pack -7

Atlanta +7

11. Chicago @ Detroit (+3.5):

I’m on all favorites so far, but I guess that is why we picked these as the worst games of the week, good team vs bad team. Detroit is coming off of a bye, which is good for a banged up Kitna, but Detroit can’t stop any offense, and Forte should have a big day. Detroit could keep this game close with a nice game plan, but the truth is, I haven’t seen anything yet that suggests they can win against anyone in the top 3/4ths of the league. That being said, I have a feeling here that Detroit is coming to come off of their bye at home against an overrated team, and get it done. Getting rid of their GM doesn’t make it better, but it may be one of those things that gives a team hope when they previously had none. It is something to be happy about and maybe they play looser and upset a team that really only has one solid offensive weapon, and a defense that is susceptible to the pass.

Lions +3.5

Detroit +3.5

10. San Diego @ Miami (+6.5):

Miami coming off of a bye doesn’t scare me, Ronnie Brown doesn’t scare me, and neither does Chad Pennington. The Chargers defense has the potential to shut this team down, if they do so, they will win by much more than this. Miami can pretty much scrap the rest of the season after the win in New England, and the Chargers need a run to get to the front of the AFC West. Not to mention they are way more talented. The questions I have are, does Chambers have an revenge factor here, and how soon until Antoine Cason takes over Antonio Cromartie’s job? One looks way better then the other so far.

Chargers -6.5

San Diego -6.5

9. Seattle @ NYG (-7):

I think the bye week was great for both teams, hopefully the Giants kept their focus, because this us against the world thing is their best ally. If they start getting cocky, they will fall. They have no Plax which is huge, he is without a doubt their best offensive player. The defense should get their share of hits on Hasselbeck, and I doubt that Branch and Engram will make a splash right away. I can guarantee the Giants are looking ahead to the big matchup with the Browns, so they should win this one relatively easily. I do think Seattle starts to get better and challenges for the honor of the worst team in the playoffs by winning the NFC West.

Giants -7

NYG -7

8. Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3): Adrian Peterson over 150, and he will be their best defense as well. The Saints can score on anyone, and they thrive in the passing game which is not the Vikings strength. If AP keeps pounding the ball and using the clock, then the defense has an easier job. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did this and it worked, but I like the home team against Gus Ferotte. The Vikings have one win, and it was at home and it was weird. I don’t know why the Panthers couldn’t do anything, but I think New Orleans can.

Saints -3

N.O. -3

7. New England @ San Francisco (+3):

This is one of my favorite lines of the week. Bill Belichick is arguably one of the best coaches every coming off of a bye. This team has a ton of talent (obviously, they lost one guy from a super bowl favorite team) and they just had to adjust right away from the loss of their qb. Now they had two weeks to figure out how to run the offense with a different qb. The SF defense is not that good, and I have faith that Belichick figured out how to score. The defense will do enough, and the Patriots will roll in those one against a team much less talented.

Patriots -3 (emphatically)

New England -3

6. Indianapolis @ Houston (+3):

Indy should have benefited from a week off, and they are a well coached, talented team. I still don’t think they will be up to the form we expect, and the defense is obviously worlds apart when Bob Sanders is playing. Slaton should have a field day, but I think the Indy line, now healthy, should give Peyton the time he needs. He didn’t play all preseason, and it showed, no he had two weeks to rest and get better with his team. I think the Colts offense comes back to form a bit this week.

Colts -3

Indy -3

5. Buffalo @ Arizona (-1):

Both of these teams fit the “how good are they really” category. After seeing the Cardinals defense last week, and the Bills score another come from behind win, I think the Bills are for real and the Cardinals are not. I am excited to see if I am right or wrong here, but I think the Bills offense has no trouble scoring, and the defense will make enough stops to actually carry a lead and win the game.

Buffalo +1

Buffalo +1

4. Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-4):

I think Pitt is at their peak for injuries and Jacksonville is crawling back from injuries. The Jags looked like they could be dead in the water a few weeks ago, but they have pulled out two close wins, and should feel a lot more comfortable. The Jags def hasn’t looked as good as it is supposed to, but they should get a boost playing against the shitty Pitt line, and their third string running back. I see Pitt throwing a lot, and Ben (yes, I call him by first name because I don’t know how to spell his last name) should be dirty by games end. I think this is close, and they could win by a field goal, but I cant bet on Pitt to do enough on the road when they just look beat up and tired.

Jacksonville -4

Jacksonville (if the line is under 5)

3. Tampa Bay @ Denver (-3):

Denver is coming off of a dirty loss, and come back to the friendly confines of Mile High, I’m still calling it that. Tampa is one of those teams that is rarely pretty to watch and you ask yourself how they won every time they do, but they win a lot. They are well coached, and play tough defense. I don’t think their defense stops the Broncos, but the Broncos couldn’t even stop Kansas City . The Bucs keep up the aggressive play calling on offense and beat a team that is only good on one side of the ball because they are the more well rounded team. Whenever you think the road dog can win straight up, you have to take the points.

Bucs +3

Tampa Bay +3

2. Washington @ Philadelphia (-5.5):

Westbrook does look like he will be back, and Philly should start to fly again. Washington has a great pass defense, so this is a tough matchup for the Eagles, but I think McNabb healthy is just too good to be stopped, at least in the first three quarters. Washington is a bit over valued after their surprise win in Dallas , and the Eagles are a bit under rated after their loss in Chicago . Washington I think is legit, but Philly is better. They will both score, but Philly at home with a more aggressive team on both sides of the ball wins this one by a TD.

Eagles -5.5

Washington +5.5

1. Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3):

I like this one for the same reasons I like the Buff vs Ari game, only I think both teams are better. Both of these teams have exceeded my expectations. I tend to think Tenn is the better team on both sides of the ball. Baltimore has been good because the offense has been effective and not made mistakes, while the defense has been great. Neither team has had very tough competitions so far, so it is nice to see them against each other. This is actually another of my favorite lines because I think the Tenn def terrorizes the Baltimore offense, and they win this one by two scores. The Titans have been a great bet all year because they don’t make a lot of mistakes on either side of the ball. Baltimore is the same, but I think their offense is a liability against good teams, and the Titans offense has been better. Kerry Collins is good when he doesn’t try to do too much, and Chris Johnson is a stud. I am starting to love this Titans team because they get great lines every week and continue to cover. Keep it rollin’.

Titans -3

Tennessee -3