10-4

Both Oz and Clay are astonished that the Falcons rookie Matt Ryan has taken Atlanta from being a terrible team to a semi-watchable one. Clay in black, Oz in blue.

10. Cleveland @ Buffalo (-5) Yes, this is the tenth best game of the week.

That's a sign the apocalypse is upon us. Going into this year, I'd say this would be higher up, too. I like the way Cleveland is playing. On the other end, I have seen Buffalo a bunch of times this season and I want to say they're good, but I can't. Everyone got on their nuts when they started 4-0, but look at the teams they've beaten (Seattle, Jacksonville, San Diego, Oakland, and St. Louis ... yes, I've called San Diego bad twice already). The Bills aren't good. (Neither are the Browns, but they're better than the Bills)

Cleveland +5

Well I already used this one on you twice too, the Chargers my not be very good, but they beat the snot out of the Patriots and the Jets, your top two teams in the AFC East. Neither of these teams are good. I don’t know what to expect from the Bills these days, except boring crappy football. The Browns had a little fight last Thursday, but can they bring that on the road? Apparently someone in the Browns locker room commented that some of the guys are quiting on the team. That is not what you want to hear before a meaningless road game with a shitty coach and a rookie (I call a QB in his first year as a starter a rookie, is this ok?) QB.

Bills -5

9. Houston @ Indianapolis (-8.5) You were closer here on the line. I thought it'd be a little higher, but given Indy's inconsistency, you'd think they'll struggle with Houston ... ummm, oh wait. Remember the Texans blew a 17 point fourth quarter lead against this team? You don't think the Colts absolutely have this team's number? At home? Coming off two huge wins (granted they came off the other team beating themselves, hmm, which come to think of it is how the Colts win ALL their games)?

Indy -8.5

I really want to take Houston here because I feel like they always play Indy tough, but I see they have only beaten them once. The Texan’s defense isn’t stopping anyone, and after their showing last week at home, I can’t in my right mind take them with less then ten on the road. Indy may be coming into their own, and they may be dangerous down the stretch, which is not good for my Chargers in a game they really need next week. My heart says take Houston, but my brain tells me they haven’t a shot.

Colts -8.5

8. Tennessee @ Jacksonville (+3) Only three again, huh?

Yea, that's ludicrous. The Titans. 10-0, huh? Good for them. Perfection is not easy.

Tennessee -3

I love the Titans, they get no love, well they do from me. The only week I didn’t bet on them was Green Bay, when they didn’t cover. I think I keep riding this train. Jacksonville can’t turn crap into gold with one blowout over the worst team in the Big Ten, your Detroit Lions (really, they would probably lose to Penn St and Ohio St, no?).

Titans -3

7. Denver @ Atlanta (-6.5) I wanted to rank this higher because I think it will be fun to watch.

Atlanta has become a team that's fun to watch. It's been great seeing how well Matt Ryan has played in his rookie season. I thought it'd take a while for him to come along, but he's adjusted very nicely. The Falcons play stout defense, they can run the shit out of the ball, and Ryan is capable of putting up points through the air. They could win the NFC South (they won't).

Atlanta -6.5

You’re right, they won’t but that NFC South has turned out to be a very good, exciting conference, who’d of thought. The Broncos are tough to bet on. In Denver I love taking the points when they are favored by three or more. They aren’t going to stop the Falcons, but can the Falcons stop the Broncos? I think this is a shootout and the winner of the game is the last with the ball. At the very least, can’t you see the Broncos down 13, and scoring a worthless TD on a 2 minute drive to end the game and cover? I love picking the Broncos every week and being happy whether they win or lose.

Broncos +6.5

6. Minnesota @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) Tampa is good at home and the Vikings cost me winning my five-team parlay last week. Well, they didn't cost me shit. Green Bay did, but the Vikings didn't help. You know who has really helped the Vikings? Sidney Rice. At least it gives Frerotte another guy to throw to. This way, opponents can't stack the line and double-cover Berrian. He's opened up this offense nicely. That said, Tampa might be too good at home.

Tampa Bay -3.5

Tampa Bay is very good at home. These NFC South teams are all tough at home, and Minnesota didn’t sell me with that win last week. I still think their pass defense is too shitty to support a one dimensional offense. You are right that the pass offense is better with Rice, and Ferotte for that matter, but he is still Gus Ferotte, and this is a very good Tampa defense. I like the Bucs at home and hate them on the road.

Bucs -3.5

The #4 game was the Jets (+3) over the Patriots. Clay correctly picked the outcome. Oz? Not so much.

Top four games

Clay is in black this week, Oz in blue.

4. Dallas @ Washington (+1.5) I don't like the Skins here without Portis. I don't really like Dallas either, but I think they'll be a little better with Romo playing. This is always a tough division to pick because, really, any team can beat the other. Well, except the Giants.

Dallas -1.5

I don’t know what to think here. Dallas was favored by double digits at home last time. The Washington offense looks like crap again, and Portis isn’t healthy. Romo is going to be back, but will he be rusty. The Cowboys need this game big time, but Washington needs to get back on track too. This is a huge game between big rivals that seem to play each other tough no matter where each team stands at the time. If Brad Johnson hadn’t been so terrible, Romo would probably be taking this week off too. Damn, this is a shot in the dark for me. Washington won on the road last time and Romo was healthy, and they get no respect at home.

Skins +1.5

3. Baltimore @ New York Giants (-6.5) I'm not picking against the Giants again this season until the prove me wrong that they're the best team in the league. Should be a great game here. Lots of hitting. It'd be interesting to see the Giants runningbacks against the Raven defense. I remember I used to hate watching the Giants play (this was up until this year actually). Now they're fun to watch. I'm going to go hammer a nail through my hand now.

Giants -6.5

I think this game is rated too high, but there aren’t too many interesting matchups this week. I get bored thinking about this game, then again, the Giants have been fun to watch and the Ravens have been putting up points too. I still haven’t gotten on the Ravens wagon, but they have an awesome run D, and its about time to give Flacco some respect. The Giants are playing just about the best football, and I think they give Flacco some trouble. Eli is going to have to get it done on offense, and the Ravens could definitely force some mistakes here. I almost want to take Baltimore because I don’t know if the Giants can run on them and I don’t trust Eli, but the Giants just look really good here, and I don’t think the Ravens are a contender, so why would they take it to the defending champs in New York?

Giants -6.5

2. San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-4.5) reat game for #2. Yes, I'm being sarcastic. I guess knowing what we know now, the Pats-Jets would probably be #1, but that's all I'm going to say about that game. Anyway, I'm pretty sure the Steelers are better than the Chargers, but at the same time, San Diego typically only plays well against good teams. I'll go with my gut here. Do the Chargers miss Michael Turner? You know, since the best back in the NFL can only play on first and second down? (That's crap, by the way)

Pittsburgh -4.5

Pays to be the guy that ranks the game. Can the Chargers turn it around? The Chargers biggest weakness has been their pass rush and the Steelers biggest weakness has been their pass protection. I truly believe that if the Chargers woke up and could put pressure on QBs, all their problems would be solved. The secondary is good, but no one can cover receivers for five minutes and that is what’s happening. A couple of sacks, and some rushed throws and you start creating more turnovers and less wide open receivers. It really is that simple, so maybe this is the game for the defense to get some momentum. Then again, maybe Roethlisburger picks them apart and their number one defense picks off Rivers in the end zone like he seems to do every week.

Steelers -4.5

1. Chicago @ Green Bay (-3 that is a guess, no line yet) I told you that I got really drunk watching the game last night. When I asked you for advice, you suggested I just start to drink again. I really like your attitude, Clay. Have I ever told you that? Now, per your advice, I'm having a Bud and my headache is quickly disappearing. God bless this country. I wouldn't be able to do this in Iraq. Speaking of which, since we have a socialist president now, do I have to give away my beer too? I mean, I know I have to share, ooops, redistribute, my money. What about my beer? How does this work?

Chicago +3

That depends on how much beer you have. If you have over 200 beers then you will have to share, otherwise you are good.

I think the line actually came out at 3.5, but we will stick with this because I like it more. I don’t know if Orton is playing or not, if Rex is playing the Pack should dominate, and I will change them to my starting defense instead of the Giants, maybe I should anyway? I don’t know, I still like the Packsers and I still don’t like the Bears. The Bears have something like the 30^th ranked pass defense in the league. Don’t you think the Packers will take advantage of that? Can Forte beat the Packers? Maybe. Personally, I am probably staying away from this one unless Rex is starting. If he is in there I would take the Pack -9.

Packers -3

Top picks

Just Clay this week on the analysis. Oz will return next week. His picks are in blue.

7. Baltimore @ Houston (pk)

Houston pk

I’m not sure about Houston. I’d like them better if Schaub wasn’t hurt, and Sage hadn’t handed over a game in his last game. Baltimore may be legit, I haven’t quite bought into them yet, but they are probably better then Houston. This is a good matchup for them (especially without Schaub) because they shouldn’t have too much trouble with the Houston offense and shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball either. I like Baltimore to win this one.

Ravens pick

6. Buffalo @ New England (-4)

New England -4

The NFL is tough to figure this year. I think the Patriots are one of the worst teams in the league sometimes and others they look like a semi-contender. I still don’t think they are good because their offense isn’t explosive enough and their defense isn’t dominant enough. The Bills have trouble running the ball sometimes, and Edwards isn’t good enough to carry the team. My gut tells me that this is an ugly, close game and I can trade a field goal for a touchdown and still push, so I will take the points.

Bills +4

5. Green Bay @ Minnesota (-2.5)

Green Bay +2.5

I don’t think Minnesota is good. I think the Packers are a contender and will pull away in the division (depending on Kyle Orton’s health). I flat out think the Packers are better. Their offense and defense are both more well rounded than the one dimensional Vikings.

Packers +2.5

4. New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1)

New Orleans +1

Talk about an over game. Both offenses are very good and both defenses are very good. I am totally impressed with Matt Ryan, and I think everyone has a field day. I think the Saints are a bit better on offense, and I like the extra rest/planning, so I am going to take the road team off the bye. I sometimes take too much stock in the bye week, but in this case it is pretty even otherwise.

Saints +1

3. Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh (no line yet, I’ll guess -4)

Pittsburgh -4

Indy is boring. I guess the Steelers are too. Is Roethisburger healthy? Does it matter? I don’t know what to say here except that I think Pitt is a better team and they are at home were they are always dangerous. There is still no line because of Roethlisburger, but 4 sounds good. Another trade of a TD for field goal and a nice win for Pitt. It should be close, but I don’t trust Indy, they don’t have it.

Steelers -4ish

2. Tennessee @ Chicago (+3)

Chicago +3

I hear Orton may actually be playing this week. If Rex is playing, I love the Titans. If Orton is playing (and in good shape to do so) then it could be a very interesting game. Tennessee almost got beat by Baltimore because their offense isn’t great and a good defense will give them trouble. Chicago could do that to Tennessee, and if they win the turnover battle, could come out victorious. When Rex Grossman is your Qb, though, you don’t win the turnover battle. For now, I assume Rex is the QB, I assume Tenn wins the TO battle, and I have to take the most consistent team in the league giving 3 points against a team I think is just above average.

Titans -3

1. New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-3)

NYG +3

Bill Simmons pointed out that the Eagles are great against shitty teams, and the eff up against good teams. The Giants are good, and they are playing still like they have something to prove. With a coach and QB notorious for screwing up in the clutch, I have to take the defending champs. The Giants look better then everyone else out there, and I won’t give up points on them against anybody anywhere.

Giants +3

Week 9 picks

Brett Favre still wears Wrangler jeans ... and Clay and Oz both know someone who is turned on by this picture. He's not even gay.

Just Clay with the analysis this week; Oz will be back next week for the picks. His picks are in blue.

13. Jacksonville @ Detroit (+6.5)

Jacksonville -6.5

Detroit has the worst run D in the league, so I think Jacksonville should finally get something done on offense. Meanwhile, the Lions traded Orlovsky for Dante Culpepper, who was never really good, and now he is old. He was the worst QB in the league last year, and I don’t think a little extra time off will help. Jacksonville gets a much needed blowout here.

Jags -6.5

12. Seattle @ Miami (-8)

Miami -8

Seattle still doesn’t have Hasselbeck back, and they can’t seem to do much of anything well. They have never been good on the road, and Miami is quietly one of the better teams in the NFL. I don’t think this is close after the first quarter.

Miami -8

11. Carolina @ Oakland (+9.5)

Oakland +9.5

At first I was thinking this was too many points. I love taking Oakland at home as a big dog because even when losing they usually keep it close. Not this team. They seem to be giving up and have been blown out two straight weeks. Now they drop their big off season free agent, much to the surprise of the rest of the team “I don’t know why the would cut our best player.” Do you think they have any motivation to be good right now? I don’t and Carolina is damn good at home.

Panthers -9.5

10. Kansas City @ San Diego (-15)

Kansas City +15

This one is tough. As a Chargers fan I expect the team to come out of the bye fiery. They have a new, proven Defensive Coordinator and LT should be in good shape after a long rest against a terrible, terrible run defense. KC on the other hand has shown some life the last couple of weeks, still trying even though they are really bad. Those were both at home, though. Can the Chargers win by three scores? They are more than capable of it. Under Marty, they don’t cover this. The way I see it, if the defense plays really well, then we blow them out, right? If they play poorly, then the offense never shuts down to prevent a comeback and they run up the score. Either way, it’s a blowout against a team with a shitty offense and a shitty defense.

Chargers -15

9. San Francisco @ Arizona (-9.5)

Arizona -9.5 ... this is an over game, huh?

Yes, especially the Arizona team total. San Francisco is not good, and Arizona is looking like a division winner. I don’t think it is ever close here, sorry but I am all favorites so far.

Cardinals -9.5

8. St Louis @ NYJ (-9)

St. Louis +9

Until now. I think the Jets are over rated. They will not win the AFC East, and they will not make the playoffs. Their offense struggles to move the ball too often, and their pass defense is a liability. They got a good win on the road last week, but that was against another overrated team. If the Rams can get the ball moving in the air they have a great shot at winning this won, let alone keeping in under double digits. I am betting against the Jets here more than on the rams (who I still think is a decent team).

Rams +9

Top Picks

To some people (Clay), drinking before work seems to be acceptable.
Clay is in blue, Oz is in black.

4. Dallas @ NYG(-9):
Man, who'd have seen this coming last month. Giants should be up for this one and would love to blow out the Cowboys. By the time Romo comes back, they could be out of it already. The O line has been terrible for Dallas, and the Giants have probably the best pass rush in the league. I honestly think the Giants rip through Dallas. The Cowboys aren't doing much of anything well lately. They played good d last week, but Eli can throw deep, so they can't play the same defense. Giants -9

You're right about not being able to see this coming. To be truthful, I was expecting the Giants to struggle this year after their championship rings came in. They've proved me wrong. They're the best team in the league. The Cowboys might be in trouble, especially since the NFC is the tougher of the two divisions.

Giants -9

3. Pittsburgh @ Washington(-1.5):
Washington is a tough team to figure out. They are good, but I have trouble buying into them as a top tier team. They won at Dallas and at Philly. They are home most of the remaining sched. The problem I see washington running into is good defenses because their offense isn't explosive enough. This could be a very low scoring game with both defenses dominating. The thing is, you stop PItt with a good pass rush and Washington doesnt usually win that way. Steelers +1.5

This is a tough week for the Redskins. They could win this game, but I don't think they're on the Steelers level, at least physically. Pittsburgh hits hard, this game could be a slugfest. It should be a good game. Seems like an odd line to me.

Steelers +1.5

2. Green Bay @ Tennessee(-5.5):
I have been riding Tennessee for over a month now and it has been fun. I am getting off on this stop, though. They are coming off of a tough battle on Monday night and get a rested Green Bay team that has spent two weeks trying to figure out how to win this game. I think the Packers are the better then any team Tenn has faced thus far, and the should give the running game a challenge. Tenn could definitely win this one, but i like this being a low scoring close game, and I honestly think GB comes out ahead. Packers +5.5

I've been the opposite. Haven't bought into it until the Monday night game against Indianapolis. This is a classic letdown game that I won't let myself be talked into. Tennessee is better than Green Bay.

Tennessee -5.5

1. New England @ Indianapolis(-5.5):
Ahaaaaaa. This is interesting, hard to pick a winner here. I don't totally understand either team. The Pats are so inconsistent, and I dont know what they really do well. They rush the passer well, and Indy has had some trouble with that. New England is susceptible in the secondary, but Indy hasn't been doing much on offense, especially if they can get to Peyton. I think Indy gets Bob Sanders back this week so the backup running backs lose a bit of the edge. I have to admit I think the Patriots aren't good. Would I be surprised if New England won this game, no. Would I be suprised if Indy won by 24, no. Do I think both of these coaches would run up the score, yes. Indianapolis -5.5

Expect a shoot-out. I'm terrified of this game. I don't think the Colts are better than the Patriots. I can't pick against Belichick.

New England +5.5
I think I have a problem. I just finished and then made another bloody mary to go. Is that bad? It's 930 and I am drinking my second bloody mary, which has to be at least 50-50 or you end up just drinking tomato juice, on my way to beach day at work.

Picks 14-5

Say what you want about Jeff Garcia's voice, but this is his wife.

OZ is in black, Clay is is blue ...

14. Detroit @ Chicago(-13):

Next time I do this, I should try to guess the lines. I was thinking this was a two score spread. There's been talk for a couple years about how parody in the NFL will prevent a team from going undefeated and, along the same lines, prevent a team from going winless. I'm pretty convinced this Lions team has a shot. They almost seem as if they've packed it in. They're a terrible football team. It's a six hour drive from Detroit to Chicago. I'm positive it's not really worth it to travel.

(Come to think of it, they wouldn't take the bus (it's an hour plane right), but it really makes no sense. You get to the airport, I'm assuming players have to get checked even if it isn't in the long lines, then they board, wait for clearance then fly. Land, get off the plane, get luggage. We're talking a four hour trip anyway, no?)

CHICAGO -13

Yes, waste of time. No way they get anything going on offense and the Bears offense is good enough to tear apart this terrible defense. Coming off of a bye, they won’t be looking past this game. Blowout city.

Bears -13

13. Tampa Bay @ Kansas City(+8.5):

Even though it's funny to make "Garcia is gay" jokes, we can't front on his hot wife. She was playmate of the year and had our buddy Horse in a trance for about five months. The Buccaneers showed a little trouble with the Cowboys, but then again, the Cowboys are a good team. They aren't as good on the road as they are at home, and the Chiefs are excellent at Arrowhead. I, however, have been burned too many times betting against this team.

Tampa Bay -8.5

Yeah, Tampa is a tough team to bet on. One week they make you feel stupid for betting on them and the next it’s the other way around. I can’t ever bet on KC, though they do seem to be trying still. Tampa blew the big spread against Seattle a couple weeks ago, but they only need to win by 10 here. No reason they shouldn’t.

Bucs -8.5

12. Jacksonville @ Cincinnati(+7.5):

I have no idea what's up with Jacksonville. In the preseason preview, I wrote, "They're terrific defensively and apparently they can score, but they've never actually impressed me. I've never said to myself, "wow, Jacksonville is GOOD!" You were buying into it. Do I think they can blow out the second worst team in the NFL? Of course I do. Would I put any money on that happening? No way. I have no idea what to expect. If I lose, I lose.

Jacksonville -7.5

Speaking of mailing it in, the Bengals are terrible, you finally dropped Palmer from your team this week, and I wouldn’t care if Jacksonville was coming off a loss to Detroit, they should roll over the Bengals. I don’t even know what to say here. The Bengals suck on offense and defense, and the Jags are average at both these days.

Jags -7.5

11. Philadelphia @ Seattle(+6.5): I hate the NFC West. This is ranked low not because I hate the Eagles and think they suck but because I don't think this will be much of a game. I don’t buy Seattle after that win either.

After a 4-3 start (the three losses coming by a combined 14 points), there are a lot of people off the Eagles bandwagon, which might suit them. Of their last nine games, just three of them are against quality opponents (twice against the Giants, and @ Washington). This could be a dangerous team if they get on a roll heading into the postseason, which they will make.

Philly -6.5

Man, all favorites so far in a year where dogs continue to pull upsets. Home teams appear to be doing very well too. I am not buying into Seattle after a good week. They still have Seneca Wallace under center, and Philly is too good even for Andy Reid to blow this spread.

Eagles -6.5

10. Arizona @ St. Louis(+3):

I'm so happy I don't live in an area where this game would be aired, though. For every sick Larry Fitzgerald catch, there's ten plays when you realize you're watching the Cardinals. The Pats may have taken the wind out of the Rams sails last week. I hate taking road teams with lines like this. Apparently the oddsmakers think it'll be close.

Arizona -3

Yeah, this is an interesting line. I too think it will be close, though. Arizona hasn’t shown they can win on the road, and I don’t think St Louis got those wins by getting hot, I think they are a decent team, although Stephen Jackson screwed my pick last week by surprising me, and he could do the same this week. Arizona is improved on defense, but still not real formidable. With SJ, I like the Rams, without I would probably take them at gunpoint, but would rather leave it alone.

This reminds me, last week I had a four team ML parlay, all dogs to win outright. It paid out just over 50 to 1, and for a while it looked like it might happen. TB, St Louis, Miami and New Orleans; two of the four one, and the other two were winning or tied for the majority of the game. Lat scores by both favorites ruined me.

Rams +3

9. Miami @ Denver(-3):

No. There may not be a good team in the AFC West would you ever think the AFC East would be more competitive than the AFC West? The Dolphins are a lot better than the Broncos, even at Mile High.

Miami +3

I have trouble saying they are a lot better in Denver. Miami is pretty solid, they aren’t shitty at anything but they aren’t really spectacular at anything. I am wondering if they just surprised a couple of teams in a row. I think the Denver offense gets back on track this week, but Miami and the oh so popular lately Wildcat offense should have no trouble. Lots of points, and I have enjoyed taking dogs against Denver when getting 3 or more because I figure the visitors can always score easily at the end of the game to keep it close. Can Miami do that? Eh, I am not sure, but I’ll stick with the dog against Denver theory since it has worked thus far.

Miami +3

8. Atlanta @ Oakland(+3):

Imagine being a fan of either of these teams? At least I'd be more hopeful if I was a Falcon fan. Matt Ryan is going to be a good quarterback in this league. And who would have thought Michael Turner could carry the load?

Atlanta -3

I would definitely be happy as a Falcons fan right now, especially after last year. Who’d of thought Matt Ryan and Michael Turner would get this offense going right away. Atlanta is better, right? Neither team is great, but like I say every week, Atlanta is one of the better average teams. They won’t win games against the top tier, but they have enough eggs on their schedule they should finish around or above .500. Not so much for the Raiders and McFadden’s two turf toes. Really, he has turf toe on both feet? Who does that?

Falcons -3

7. NYJ @ Buffalo(-5.5):

I agree that the Jets are overrated. The Bills have been under the radar recently (loss @ Arizona, bye, win vs. San Diego, loss @ Miami), but they are 5-2. They get to play at Ralph Wilson again. This should be an interesting game, but the Bills should win.

BUFFALO -5.5

I think the Jets suck. I think the Bills are pretty good. They didn’t play especially well in the SD game, but they won, and that’s all that matters. That is kind of what I think this team does, it is what I expected going into the year. Not pretty, but solid. The Jets on the other hand stop the run, and could have a solid offense if Favre threw the ball to the green dressed guys more. You ‘d think he could handle this, he didn’t even have to change uniform colors. The Jets still seem to like running the ball more, because no one trust Favre. I don’t know what else to say, Jets are bad, Bills are better then average (which says a lot in a very average year).

Bills -5.5

6. Houston @ Minnesota(-4.5):

I'm reading this book called "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell right now and it's all about the importance of instantaneous reactions, and, while sometimes we don't know why we have a hunch, we can't ignore them. This is a great example of this idea.

Houston +4.5

Nice tie in there. I like Houston too, and Minnesota doesn’t seem to be doing anything right this year. Shaub and AP should both have good games, but this is too many points I think for a team that hasn’t really been good all year (although they beat me on Carolina earlier in the year).

Houston +4.5

5. Baltimore @ Cleveland(-1.5):

My mistake, they've won three of four games. They lost at Washington, but beat the Giants and won @ Jacksonville. I like this match-up for the Browns.

CLEVELAND -1.5

I like this matchup too, I don’t trust Flacco, and the Ravens have taken advantage of bad teams to get where they are. This is a great opportunity for the Browns. I like them to shut down the Ravens offense, and get enough going behind Anderson to win this one.

Browns -1.5

Week 8

Oz (in black) thinks you should bet on the guy who is "6'5 rocket, laser arm." Clay (in blue) thinks differently.

7. St Louis @ New England (-7):

The oddsmakers make it hard for the Patriots, but the Pats don't really make it easy on gamblers either. St. Louis is playing pretty well in the last three weeks, and the Patriots are wildly inconsistant. Did anyone expect a 41-7 win over the Broncos? I sure didn't. Now Brady has had surgery four times and that's not really okay. But Matt Cassel won offensive player of the week. WHAT?! The world is going mad.

New England -7

Yeah, it is hard to predict what either of these teams will do. I am buying into this Rams team right now, though, because I thought before the season that they would be good. I attributed a lot of their problems from last year to injuries. I was wrong from the start, but because of that, I am not ready to call those wins flukes. I think they are competitive for the rest of the year, and I guess in their division, that means they still have a shot. I wouldn’t be surprised if either team blew the other out, but given that I think the Rams could win this outright, I have to take a full touchdown.

Rams +7

6. Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-9):

I believe Westbrook is returning this weekend meaning my fantasy team will still lose but not by as much. Atlanta isn't a bad team. The Eagles are good at giving quarterbacks fits (watch: the game with the Patriots last year), which I expect to happen this weekend against Matt Ryan. Ryan is a good quarterback, but he won't be able to do much against this defense.

Philly -9

I don’t know, Matt Ryan hasn’t been sacked very many times this year, and he has shown he can play well under pressure. Teams off of a bye are always scary, and the Atlanta defense is not scary, which leads to believe the Eagles will score a lot. The Eagles defense is one of those that either completely shuts you down, or doesn’t do anything to stop you. I am done referring to Matt Ryan as a rookie QB because I think he is legit. I think Philly gets up early and Ryan can’t do it all himself when they have to abandon the run game. I want to take the points, but I think the defense lets them down.

Philly -9

5. Tampa Bay @ Dallas (no line yet):

Tampa has been playing great as of late. I've bet against them twice in the past two weekends and lost, so there's no way I'm going against them right now. The Cowboys look like they're in a little bit of trouble. The Bucs defense is good enough to keep the Cowboys honest and their offense has been running smoothly. Without the spread listed, I'll take the bucs money line.

Tampa Bay (ML)

I can’t get behind the cowboys right now…does that sound homoerotic? Brad Johnson looked terrible last week, and one would think a week as the starter in practice should help, he isn’t that bad, right? The problem is that Tampa is pretty good, they play solid D and the offense has been more productive then expected. Dallas has had a terrible pass defense, so it isn’t a stretch to expect the Bucs to score some points her and win on the road. The ‘boys are in trouble, they could be screwed by the time Romo is back.

Tampa Bay +2

4. Arizona @ Carolina (-4.5): The Cardinals need to win on the road if they want some respect, Carolina will be a tough place to do that.

After getting their ass kicked, I feel like Carolina needs to prove something. Arizona can't stop a team that's physical and that's what the Panthers are. A few three and outs by the Cardinals offense will be a catalyst to Carolina controlling the clock. I need Fitzgerald to have a big game, but i'm not sure he can do enough to win this game for them.

Carolina -4.5

I don’t know what you are watching, but the Panthers beat the crap out of New Orleans last week. Another big offense, can the Panthers do it again. Arizona is actually 9^th against the run this year, so the Panthers will likely have to do a bit more to score against a somewhat improved defense. I think the Panthers are too good at home, the Cardinals haven’t shown anything on the road yet, and Carolina is a more balanced offense and defense. Considering the season we have had, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona wins outright. No two weeks are the same in the NFL this year.

Panthers -4.5

3. New York Giants @ Pittsburgh (-3.5): I am a little surprised they are giving three, a bye helps. I am interested to see what happens here. I think it will mostly be defense.

I know Pittsburgh is 5-1 but I'm not buying into it yet. This would be a three-point spread for whatever team is at home. The Giants look unstoppable running the ball right now and that sets up the passing game for Manning. If the Giants win this game big, which I'm expecting them to do, does that put them #1 in the power rankings? For me, yes.

New York +3.5

The Steelers should look good off of the bye, they usually do, but their O line has been a problem, and that is looking right into the Giant’s strength. I actually picked up the Giants defense this week as a fill in, because I think they get to “Ben” a lot. The Giants will struggle with consistency all year, especially against inferior opponents, but I think they are flat out better then the Steelers. Would I be surprised if the Steelers won, of course not, but I have to take the points with the team that I think should win straight up, and no, a win should put them at #2 behind the undefeated Titans who are going to….I guess I am getting ahead of myself.

Giants +3.5

2. San Diego @ New Orleans @ London (+3):

Take the under in this one. Seriously. It'll be high, but both teams are in friggin London. Should be a dreadful game actually.

San Diego -3

I totally agree. The total is set at 45, definitely lower because it is in London. I was reading today that LT met with the coaches and says they need to run the ball more. If he is going to be playing, he needs the ball. The Chargers are 28^th in the league in time of possession, because when they score, it is fast, and the defense sucks. They need to start controlling the clock like they used to, and this is definitely going to be a game where the best running team wins. Deuce should have a nice day, but I have to think without Reggie in the rain, the Saints won’t be as dynamic. LT gets the ball, Chargers control the clock for the first time all year, and come back to the States with a win.

Chargers -3

1. Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-4):

This game would virtually eliminate the Colts from winning their division. That's big. Do the Titans have the resolve to make this happen? Do the Colts not have a little advantage in experience here? It would not surprise me a bit to have the Colts win by three scores more or less announcing, "hey, guess what? We're still here."

Indy +4

That would surprise me. The Titans defense is very good, and the Colts offense hasn’t been. Dom Rhodes doesn’t scare anyone, and apparently neither does Peyton. Chris Johnson and even Fat Lendale White should have a field day against the worst run d in the league, therefore controlling the clock. I don’t see a single advantage (I guess you could say experience) that the Colts have in this game. I don’t think the Titans are the dominant team in the NFL this year, their schedule has been big, but in this game, they are the better team. Straight up, hands down. Home field helps too. Chris Johnson over 150, Titans win 24-16.

Titans -4