Picks 14-5

Say what you want about Jeff Garcia's voice, but this is his wife.

OZ is in black, Clay is is blue ...

14. Detroit @ Chicago(-13):

Next time I do this, I should try to guess the lines. I was thinking this was a two score spread. There's been talk for a couple years about how parody in the NFL will prevent a team from going undefeated and, along the same lines, prevent a team from going winless. I'm pretty convinced this Lions team has a shot. They almost seem as if they've packed it in. They're a terrible football team. It's a six hour drive from Detroit to Chicago. I'm positive it's not really worth it to travel.

(Come to think of it, they wouldn't take the bus (it's an hour plane right), but it really makes no sense. You get to the airport, I'm assuming players have to get checked even if it isn't in the long lines, then they board, wait for clearance then fly. Land, get off the plane, get luggage. We're talking a four hour trip anyway, no?)

CHICAGO -13

Yes, waste of time. No way they get anything going on offense and the Bears offense is good enough to tear apart this terrible defense. Coming off of a bye, they won’t be looking past this game. Blowout city.

Bears -13

13. Tampa Bay @ Kansas City(+8.5):

Even though it's funny to make "Garcia is gay" jokes, we can't front on his hot wife. She was playmate of the year and had our buddy Horse in a trance for about five months. The Buccaneers showed a little trouble with the Cowboys, but then again, the Cowboys are a good team. They aren't as good on the road as they are at home, and the Chiefs are excellent at Arrowhead. I, however, have been burned too many times betting against this team.

Tampa Bay -8.5

Yeah, Tampa is a tough team to bet on. One week they make you feel stupid for betting on them and the next it’s the other way around. I can’t ever bet on KC, though they do seem to be trying still. Tampa blew the big spread against Seattle a couple weeks ago, but they only need to win by 10 here. No reason they shouldn’t.

Bucs -8.5

12. Jacksonville @ Cincinnati(+7.5):

I have no idea what's up with Jacksonville. In the preseason preview, I wrote, "They're terrific defensively and apparently they can score, but they've never actually impressed me. I've never said to myself, "wow, Jacksonville is GOOD!" You were buying into it. Do I think they can blow out the second worst team in the NFL? Of course I do. Would I put any money on that happening? No way. I have no idea what to expect. If I lose, I lose.

Jacksonville -7.5

Speaking of mailing it in, the Bengals are terrible, you finally dropped Palmer from your team this week, and I wouldn’t care if Jacksonville was coming off a loss to Detroit, they should roll over the Bengals. I don’t even know what to say here. The Bengals suck on offense and defense, and the Jags are average at both these days.

Jags -7.5

11. Philadelphia @ Seattle(+6.5): I hate the NFC West. This is ranked low not because I hate the Eagles and think they suck but because I don't think this will be much of a game. I don’t buy Seattle after that win either.

After a 4-3 start (the three losses coming by a combined 14 points), there are a lot of people off the Eagles bandwagon, which might suit them. Of their last nine games, just three of them are against quality opponents (twice against the Giants, and @ Washington). This could be a dangerous team if they get on a roll heading into the postseason, which they will make.

Philly -6.5

Man, all favorites so far in a year where dogs continue to pull upsets. Home teams appear to be doing very well too. I am not buying into Seattle after a good week. They still have Seneca Wallace under center, and Philly is too good even for Andy Reid to blow this spread.

Eagles -6.5

10. Arizona @ St. Louis(+3):

I'm so happy I don't live in an area where this game would be aired, though. For every sick Larry Fitzgerald catch, there's ten plays when you realize you're watching the Cardinals. The Pats may have taken the wind out of the Rams sails last week. I hate taking road teams with lines like this. Apparently the oddsmakers think it'll be close.

Arizona -3

Yeah, this is an interesting line. I too think it will be close, though. Arizona hasn’t shown they can win on the road, and I don’t think St Louis got those wins by getting hot, I think they are a decent team, although Stephen Jackson screwed my pick last week by surprising me, and he could do the same this week. Arizona is improved on defense, but still not real formidable. With SJ, I like the Rams, without I would probably take them at gunpoint, but would rather leave it alone.

This reminds me, last week I had a four team ML parlay, all dogs to win outright. It paid out just over 50 to 1, and for a while it looked like it might happen. TB, St Louis, Miami and New Orleans; two of the four one, and the other two were winning or tied for the majority of the game. Lat scores by both favorites ruined me.

Rams +3

9. Miami @ Denver(-3):

No. There may not be a good team in the AFC West would you ever think the AFC East would be more competitive than the AFC West? The Dolphins are a lot better than the Broncos, even at Mile High.

Miami +3

I have trouble saying they are a lot better in Denver. Miami is pretty solid, they aren’t shitty at anything but they aren’t really spectacular at anything. I am wondering if they just surprised a couple of teams in a row. I think the Denver offense gets back on track this week, but Miami and the oh so popular lately Wildcat offense should have no trouble. Lots of points, and I have enjoyed taking dogs against Denver when getting 3 or more because I figure the visitors can always score easily at the end of the game to keep it close. Can Miami do that? Eh, I am not sure, but I’ll stick with the dog against Denver theory since it has worked thus far.

Miami +3

8. Atlanta @ Oakland(+3):

Imagine being a fan of either of these teams? At least I'd be more hopeful if I was a Falcon fan. Matt Ryan is going to be a good quarterback in this league. And who would have thought Michael Turner could carry the load?

Atlanta -3

I would definitely be happy as a Falcons fan right now, especially after last year. Who’d of thought Matt Ryan and Michael Turner would get this offense going right away. Atlanta is better, right? Neither team is great, but like I say every week, Atlanta is one of the better average teams. They won’t win games against the top tier, but they have enough eggs on their schedule they should finish around or above .500. Not so much for the Raiders and McFadden’s two turf toes. Really, he has turf toe on both feet? Who does that?

Falcons -3

7. NYJ @ Buffalo(-5.5):

I agree that the Jets are overrated. The Bills have been under the radar recently (loss @ Arizona, bye, win vs. San Diego, loss @ Miami), but they are 5-2. They get to play at Ralph Wilson again. This should be an interesting game, but the Bills should win.

BUFFALO -5.5

I think the Jets suck. I think the Bills are pretty good. They didn’t play especially well in the SD game, but they won, and that’s all that matters. That is kind of what I think this team does, it is what I expected going into the year. Not pretty, but solid. The Jets on the other hand stop the run, and could have a solid offense if Favre threw the ball to the green dressed guys more. You ‘d think he could handle this, he didn’t even have to change uniform colors. The Jets still seem to like running the ball more, because no one trust Favre. I don’t know what else to say, Jets are bad, Bills are better then average (which says a lot in a very average year).

Bills -5.5

6. Houston @ Minnesota(-4.5):

I'm reading this book called "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell right now and it's all about the importance of instantaneous reactions, and, while sometimes we don't know why we have a hunch, we can't ignore them. This is a great example of this idea.

Houston +4.5

Nice tie in there. I like Houston too, and Minnesota doesn’t seem to be doing anything right this year. Shaub and AP should both have good games, but this is too many points I think for a team that hasn’t really been good all year (although they beat me on Carolina earlier in the year).

Houston +4.5

5. Baltimore @ Cleveland(-1.5):

My mistake, they've won three of four games. They lost at Washington, but beat the Giants and won @ Jacksonville. I like this match-up for the Browns.

CLEVELAND -1.5

I like this matchup too, I don’t trust Flacco, and the Ravens have taken advantage of bad teams to get where they are. This is a great opportunity for the Browns. I like them to shut down the Ravens offense, and get enough going behind Anderson to win this one.

Browns -1.5