Top picks

Just Clay this week on the analysis. Oz will return next week. His picks are in blue.

7. Baltimore @ Houston (pk)

Houston pk

I’m not sure about Houston. I’d like them better if Schaub wasn’t hurt, and Sage hadn’t handed over a game in his last game. Baltimore may be legit, I haven’t quite bought into them yet, but they are probably better then Houston. This is a good matchup for them (especially without Schaub) because they shouldn’t have too much trouble with the Houston offense and shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball either. I like Baltimore to win this one.

Ravens pick

6. Buffalo @ New England (-4)

New England -4

The NFL is tough to figure this year. I think the Patriots are one of the worst teams in the league sometimes and others they look like a semi-contender. I still don’t think they are good because their offense isn’t explosive enough and their defense isn’t dominant enough. The Bills have trouble running the ball sometimes, and Edwards isn’t good enough to carry the team. My gut tells me that this is an ugly, close game and I can trade a field goal for a touchdown and still push, so I will take the points.

Bills +4

5. Green Bay @ Minnesota (-2.5)

Green Bay +2.5

I don’t think Minnesota is good. I think the Packers are a contender and will pull away in the division (depending on Kyle Orton’s health). I flat out think the Packers are better. Their offense and defense are both more well rounded than the one dimensional Vikings.

Packers +2.5

4. New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1)

New Orleans +1

Talk about an over game. Both offenses are very good and both defenses are very good. I am totally impressed with Matt Ryan, and I think everyone has a field day. I think the Saints are a bit better on offense, and I like the extra rest/planning, so I am going to take the road team off the bye. I sometimes take too much stock in the bye week, but in this case it is pretty even otherwise.

Saints +1

3. Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh (no line yet, I’ll guess -4)

Pittsburgh -4

Indy is boring. I guess the Steelers are too. Is Roethisburger healthy? Does it matter? I don’t know what to say here except that I think Pitt is a better team and they are at home were they are always dangerous. There is still no line because of Roethlisburger, but 4 sounds good. Another trade of a TD for field goal and a nice win for Pitt. It should be close, but I don’t trust Indy, they don’t have it.

Steelers -4ish

2. Tennessee @ Chicago (+3)

Chicago +3

I hear Orton may actually be playing this week. If Rex is playing, I love the Titans. If Orton is playing (and in good shape to do so) then it could be a very interesting game. Tennessee almost got beat by Baltimore because their offense isn’t great and a good defense will give them trouble. Chicago could do that to Tennessee, and if they win the turnover battle, could come out victorious. When Rex Grossman is your Qb, though, you don’t win the turnover battle. For now, I assume Rex is the QB, I assume Tenn wins the TO battle, and I have to take the most consistent team in the league giving 3 points against a team I think is just above average.

Titans -3

1. New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-3)

NYG +3

Bill Simmons pointed out that the Eagles are great against shitty teams, and the eff up against good teams. The Giants are good, and they are playing still like they have something to prove. With a coach and QB notorious for screwing up in the clutch, I have to take the defending champs. The Giants look better then everyone else out there, and I won’t give up points on them against anybody anywhere.

Giants +3