Week 13 Picks

Plaxico Burress pre-gunshot wound

We're back with the picks! Clay was off-duty this week, but gracious enough to give us his picks. Oz in black, Clay in blue. Good luck, gamblers.

San Francisco @ Buffalo (-7) Remember this was the dream match-up of the early 1990's? Everyone wanted to see Montana versus Jim Kelly, but neither team could ever beat the New York Giants? Well, now this game isn't really that good. Buffalo has been overrated since the beginning of the season (and even I'm guilty of being fooled). However, the 49ers are also a pretty bad team. I'm not expecting much from this game, but I think the Bills can win by a couple scores.

BUFFALO -7

San Francisco +7: This could be another blow out, but the Buffalo defense is hurting and SF could keep it close.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati (+7): The Bengals are one of four home dogs and rightfully so. If you don't think I'm willing to jinx the Ravens just so the Bengals upset them, you're crazy. All Patriots fans need to be rooting for the Ravens to lose every game from here on out. The Bengals won't be able to run the ball, so they'll have to throw. And Ryan Fitzpatrick is their quarterback. Just saying.

Baltimore -7

Baltimore -7: Bengals will score few.

Indianapolis @ Cleveland (+4.5): Seems like a no-brainer here. Nice schedule, Indianapolis! The Colts should be able to throw all over the Browns, whose secondary lets up about 370 passing yards a game. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in the last nine weeks. Put lots of money on the Colts. They need to keep winning to ensure a playoff spot.

Indy -4.5

Colts -4.5: Browns just got blown out at home by Houston.

Carolina @ Green Bay (-3): This should be a good game, but the Panthers record is misleading, especially on the road, where the Panthers are only 2-3 and score considerably less (23 pts vs. 18). With a spread this small - and a game this equal - you gotta take the home team.

GREEN BAY -3

Packers -3: I still think the Pack win their division.

Miami @ St. Louis (+9): Miami coming off a huge loss to the Patriots last week and the Rams having nothing to play for. The Phins go in and blow the Rams out.

Miami -9

St Louis +9: Miami sucks, so does St Louis, Miami failed to cover big spreads vs KC and Oakland already.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-4): The home team always wins in this division, keep that in mind. It doesn't matter who plays whom. Reggie Bush won't make much of a difference here. The Bucs were torched in New Orleans earlier in the year and I don't expect that to be the case when they play in front of a home crowd. Last year at Tampa Bay, the Saints were held to just under 200 yards total offense. I'm thinking it's going to be much of the same.

Tampa Bay -4

New Orleans +4: Reggie back, I think they go on a little run here.

New York Giants @ Washington (+3): What's been my rule? Bet on NYG every week. Results? 9-2 ATS. Should be much of the same unless Plaxico Burress decides he wants to shoot himself this week. Oh wait ...

NYG -3

NYG -3: Washington is not that good.

Atlanta @ San Diego (-5): Are you excited about Michael Turner returning to Qualcomm? I am. I'm sorry to tell everyone this, but the Chargers stink. The Falcons are pretty terrible ATS on the road, but the Chargers aren't much better defending their home turf.

Atlanta +5

Atlanta +5: Chargers lose by 2 or blow them out. Guess which one I expect?

Denver @ New York Jets (-9): So the Jets are now the hottest team in the NFL? I was listening to ESPN radio and they were talking about how nice it would be to have a "Subway Super Bowl," which makes no sense because even if the Giants and the Jets played in the Super Bowl, they wouldn't be "riding the subway," they'd be flying because the game is in Florida. I hate sports radio. They're all assholes. Either way, it kills me to say this, but the Jets are pretty good and they'll beat up on Denver at home.

NYJ -9

Broncos +9: This could be a blowout, but I think the Broncos score some points here.

Pittsburgh @ New England (-1.5): I'm really excited about this game and it should be the top ranked game. The Patriots lost two games they could have won (at Indy and versus the Jets), so they could realistically be 9-2 without Tom Brady, which is a fine thing to think about. Cassel is really starting to come into his own. Here's my question: if the Patriots (hypothetically) beat the Giants in the Super Bowl this year, would all this trade Brady talk be legit? I say no, but there are a lot of New England fans who might think so. That's amazing. No one ever wanted to trade Larry Bird when he was injured.

NEW ENGLAND -1.5

Steelers +1.5: Sorry, I think they are better, too many injuries, and Cassel's streak ends here against a great defense.

Kansas City @ Oakland (-3): Imagine your #1 and #2 quarterbacks went to the IR in the same season? Imagine they were named Brody Croyle and Damon Huard? Really? Those were your top choices? Imagine a guy named Tyler Thigpen was better than both of them? I'm amazed at all of this. They didn't even downgrade when their QB's went down. They all suck....but they're better than the Raiders.

Kansas City (+3)

KC +3: Raiders offense doesn't score like last week and KC should.

Chicago @ Minnesota (-3.5): This is the Sunday night game? It looks like I'm watching The Simpsons then Family Guy.

Minnesota -3.5

Chicago +3.5: I don't buy Ferotte.

The only thing worse than having the Bears and the Vikings play on Sunday night would be like having ....

Jacksonville @ Houston (-3.5) on Monday Night Football. I'm hoping Steve Slaton scores four times against the Jaguars. I need the fantasy points in the first week of the playoffs. Sure, I'll talk shit about the Texans playing on Monday night, but I'm actually okay with it. I bet this will be a better game than we think between two teams who have no shot at the postseason.

Houston -3.5

Houston -3.5: I guess Vegas finally realized that Jacksonville isn't good.

Week 12 pt 2.

Week 12 picks are here. Sorry so late. Clay in blue, Oz in black. We're both 1-0 headed into the weekend.

6. Carolina @ Atlanta (-1)

I guess Atlanta deserves the respect, this division has been a win at home division. The Panthers look like crap recently against crappy teams. They should have their way on offense, but the Atlanta offense doesn’t seem to be fazed by anyone lately. Personally, I don’t think that Delhomme plays bad three weeks in a row, and I don’t think that Atlanta is better then Carolina. Carolina plays defense, Atlanta doesn’t.

Panthers +1

The Falcons are a pretty good team. This division is much more competitive than I thought it would be, too. As good as Matt Ryan is, he's going to have a tough time against the Carolina defense, which will mean Michael Turner will have to take over. Not easy against a solid defense. The Panthers will do just enough to win here. It won't be a blowout, but I'd take the points.

Panthers +1

5. Green Bay @ New Orleans

Wow, New Orleans finally got a win…at Kansas City. The Saints aren’t very good and the Packers are. The Packers play defense, they run the ball (Ryan Grant has surfaced this month) and they have a good passing offense. The Saints may be getting Reggie back this week, but he won’t be 100% and the packers are the better team here. Drew Brees is the kind of player who can keep his team in just about any game, so I can’t say I’d be surprised if the won this one at home, but I think the Packers are the better team.

Pack +2.5

The Packers are the better team here. It looked like (ready for my best Tim McCarver impression?) other teams were going to have to outscore the Saints in order to win, but that's settled down a little bit. Now everyone who has called Reggie Bush a bust, can they talk shit anymore? Since he got hurt the Saints have been awful. Just saying. You can say he's an injury-prone pussy, but at least he's not a bum.

Packers +2.5

4. New England @ Miami

So the new offense that demolished the Patriots in week 3 or something, and the offense succeeded for maybe a month afterward. Lately they can’t do anything on offense, and they squeaked out two wins the past two weeks against two of the worst teams in the NFL. I know Belichick tends to do better against teams for the second time, and this offense has definitely been figured out by everyone else already. I think the Patriots breeze through Miami, and they won’t be scared to run up the score this week if it comes down to it.

Patriots +2

I agree on many things here, especially the part about Belichick's success against a team the second time around. I wish I knew the record actually. I think the Patriots are feeling a sense of urgency here especially because they are now behind the eight-ball when it comes to the playoffs. They're in second place in the division and have lost to the Colts, who have the same record. The Pats have a tougher road to the playoffs and can't afford to lose this game.

Patriots +2

3. New York Jets @ Tennessee

We both thought this would be 3, but we also both thought we would bet our lives against it. It isn’t much higher, but 5 eliminates the touchdown for field goal trade. Two weeks running the Titans’ opponent has stacked the box and dared Kerry Collins to beat them. And he did. The Jets won’t have to stack the box because they have one of the top run defenses in the league, so will that be enough to slow this offense? Maybe. I don’t trust their secondary, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Favre make some poor decisions under pressure. This seems like a decent matchup for the Titans to lose their first against a confident team with enough playmakers on offense, and the right defense to pull it off. I don’t think they do, but this seems like a possibility.

Titans -5

The Titans will lose this week. It's going to kill me because I don't want to listen to people talking about Brett Favre being the best ever quarterback and even if Tom Brady wasn't injured that Favre might still be the best QB in the AFC. Tennessee is going to have a lot of pressure lifting off them this weekend. They'll lose, then relax, and stroll into the playoffs at 14-2 and I still can't name seven guys on their team.

Jets +5

2. Indianapolis @ San Diego

Let’s see, the Chargers have a terrible pass defense, and Peyton Manning is coming into town riding a winning streak. That is scary. The Chargers have had the Colts number the last few years, and have done so by putting lots of pressure on Peyton and picking off his hurried throws. This year the Chargers have no pass rush, so I don’t see that happening. This could be a shootout, because I don’t expect the Chargers to lie down, but I don’t expect them to stop the colts offense either. As a Charger fan, I am setting my expectations very low. As a gambler, I am thinking this is an effing great line.

Colts +3

Is everyone ready for a Manning versus Manning Super Bowl? Because that is what is going to happen. Colts are hot. Big win.

Colts +3

1. New York Giants @ Arizona

Arizona is pretty legit. Even though Seattle isn’t very good, that is never an easy place to play. Their offense is going to get theirs against anyone, and their defense has been respectable. The problem here is that the Giants not only are 20 points better then every other NFC West team, they are better then every NFL team. Their pass rush is going to make Kurt Warner dance, and that is never a good thing. I think the Giants bring too much firepower here. The defense will be the best they have faced, and the offense will be one of the better too. As long as Eli doesn’t blow this, the Giants should win the turnover battle and the game.

Giants -3

What's all this talk about Kurt Warner being the NFL's MVP? You have to give it to Brandon Jacobs. It's unbelievable. Why can't people see that Jacobs is the best player on the best team? This is staggering. We'll see how tough Warner is this weekend against the G-Men.

Does is come across that we're Giants fans, do you think? We have them ranked number one every week. We're not Giants fans. In fact, I hate the Giants. I represent everything for which I have unaffected scorn. But it's easy money betting on them.

Giants -3

Week 12 pt 1

Here are the week 12 picks. (Sorry they are late) Clay in blue, Oz in black. We're both 1-0 after the Steelers 17 point victory over the Bengals.

Washington @ Seattle (+6.5) Seattle got too much love last week, how about now? We're right on here. Should be about right.

Actual Line: (+3.5) again, we are on the same page, but not the oddsmakers. Didn’t they just get butt whooped at home last week.

Wow, Seattle is getting love again. I know they have a good home field advantage, but they are 2-8 with losses of 24, 3 (SF), 38, 10, 10, 19, 2, 6. They beat SF and St Louis. Meanwhile, Washington has lost 3 of 5 since they were considered a top three team. This is a must win for Washington, and they are definitely the better team. They have to get their offense together, and this seems like the place to do so. There is a chance that Hasselbeck finds his groove in his second game back and they get something going, but I would not count on it vs a good defense.

Redskins -3.5

I don't get the Seattle love this year. They had a great record at home, but they were also a pretty good team. That also plays a role. It doesn't matter where you play, if your team sucks, you're going to lose. Washington still scares me, but I think they're way better than the Seahawks.

Redskins -3.5

Chicago @ St Louis (+13) Will it be this high? If Orton is back, probably. I was way off from you. I said +3. Watch.

Actual Line: (+8.5) we were equally off, but is this line with or without Orton?

Orton played last week, so I will assume he plays again this week. Does it matter? Shouldn’t Forte run free all game? Can the St Louis offense that looks like crap doing anything against the Bears. They won’t be able to run. I now that Bulger is capable and he has capable receivers, but nothing you would expect to be good about the Rams ever seems to be good. I don’t know, considering I thought the line would be 4.5 points higher, I have to go with it. I’m still not sure about the Bears, but the Rams continue to prove me wrong when I think they should be better.

Bears -8.5

After the Rams hung around with the Patriots, I thought they'd be competitive, but I was wrong. They went into New York and got beat by 86 points. The Bears haven't really been particularly impressive. Here's my question: if Devin Hester was so good at returning punts and he kinda sucks at receiver, why not have him line up 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage and throw a pop up to him and have him work his magic?

Bears -8.5

Buffalo @ Kansas City (+3) I don’t know, NO was in the dumps and got 4.5 last week, does Buffalo get the same? Will they win? Week five, this probably would have been 14. I think this should be about +1. Both teams aren't very good. You may be right though.

Actual Line: (+3)

Gotta love the 3 point lines. KC could win, but I said that last week too. The Bills just can’t win any more and the guy that ripped me for doubting the bills at the beginning of the season suddenly feels less sure of himself. The problem I have with this is that all the Bills have to do is hand off the ball and Lynch should win the game with a little help from the defense, but that didn’t seem to work at home last week. The KC offense actually looks ok this days too. I think the Bills win the time of possession battle here, but the way they are going its hard to predict a win. KC is improving, and Buffalo is regressing, but I think they are the better team. Lynch is the difference here, they aren’t going to lose the rest of their games, and this is one they SHOULD win. Although, the more I think about it, the Buffalo defense is banged up and not helping out. The way this season goes, home dogs are winning.

Chiefs +3

Should win is the operative term here. I've been betting (and mostly losing) on Kansas City, but they keep the games and gambling interesting. The Bills haven't impressed me yet this year because they don't beat anyone good. Edwards is overrated, Lynch may be the ugliest player in the league, and their only good defender is Pozluzny. I'm taking the points.

Kansas City +3

Tampa Bay @ Detroit (+10.5) That’s generous. I said +13 here. Detroit is bad. And you are definitely being generous.

Actual Line: (+8.5) Wow

I keep finding myself behind all the favorites and sucking every week, but seriously, how is Tampa only giving 8.5? I guess the Lions have kept it close…wow, I was expecting to find last week to be the only close loss, but they have lost by less then 9 5 of their last 6 games. Granted they got blown out in one of the two Culpepper games, and I wouldn’t trust him to hold my ipod, but maybe we are on to something here. They don’t win, but do they lose by less then 9? The Bucs biggest road win of the year was by 6. Lets go for it.

Lions +8.5

That line is amazing. Culpepper did keep the game close last week against the Panthers, but can the Lions count on him two weeks in a row? We're talking about the Lions here. I do feel like this is a little bit of a trap game. We say "wow only 8.5, I'm taking the Bucs and collecting." I gotta go with the idea that the oddsmakers know more than I do.

Lions +8.5

San Francisco @ Dallas (-6) And Dallas destroys them, I bet they get on a roll after this one. I started at six, but moved it to 7.5. Not too far off, but I may be giving the Cowboys too much love.

Actual Line: (-10) or maybe not

You’d think being 4 points off the line would deter me. Well it won’t, like I said, Dallas gets an old fashion blow out here. This game should be over by halftime. I wouldn’t be surprised if SF gets some back in the second half keeps it respectable, but I can’t expect that to happen. Dallas has a chip on their shoulder and they start coming together this week after squeaking one out last week. Then again, the Niners are a much better team with Sean Hill running the show, but I still can’t buy it.

Cowboys -10

Agreed. I was a little closer with my 7.5 and I still think ten might be too much, but the Cowboys should be a lot better than the 49ers. The 49ers get a lot of their wins from the division, which isn't saying much. It's like someone saying, "I get laid all the time" and the other person responding, "yea, but with slam pigs."

Cowboys -10

Bottom games

Welcome to week 11! Oz is in blue, Clay in black.

So I got through the top 10 games and then I got stuck. The last 6 games were all so equally bad, I could not decide which one could possibly be better then the other. Since I don't believe any of them should be better then last, they are all tied for 16th.

I think it's perfectly okay to list these games all as #16.

16. Oakland @ Miami (-10.5) Higher than I thought it would be here. I guess I still think too highly of Oakland. However, besides the New England game, the Dolphins haven't blown anyone out and we're talking about teams that aren't very good (San Diego, Buffalo, Seattle, Denver). I gotta go with the points here.

Oakland +10.5

I hate that the Chargers are in that not very good category and I can’t even argue. I think I am the opposite. I am very down on Oakland, the defense isn’t doing much and the offense is horrendous. I doubt anyone on the team cares based on their suckiness (yeah, I said it) and their recent cut of their “best player”. Meanwhile I have been a bit too high on Miami. They have a solid defense and an offense that is pretty average. They have trouble moving the ball sometimes, but can Oakland stop them? I thought they should have torn through Seattle, that was disappointing. Carolina covered this spread last week in Oakland with Delhomme throwing for 57 yards and 4 interceptions. I don’t think Pennington does that. Oakland will not win another game this year, and I think they started getting rolled every week…I guess continue to.

Dolphins -10.5

16. Philadelphia @ Cincinatti (+9) I was half a point off here with my guess (-9.5). The points don't really matter much to me here, as I think everyone saw that the Eagles are one of the better teams in the league even though they might not make the playoffs. Imagine that? There are, as of now, seven teams ahead of them.

Philly -9

I plan to continue with this beat up on crappy teams and lose to good teams theory. Philly beats up on this craptastic club. Wow, I guessed 13 here, what does that tell you about my thoughts on this line. By the way, you guessed 3.5 for the Dolphins line, apparently you do overrate them.

Eagles -9

16. New Orleans @ Kansas City (+5.5) It was you who was a half point off here. Good guess. Kansas City has played pretty well in the last few weeks even though they've lost five in a row. That's weird to say. This team is 1-8 and they're playing well? The Saints, meanwhile, are the only team capable of losing a game in which your QB throws for 422 yards. Still don't know if Bush is going to play either. I hate to say this, but I'm going with the Chiefs (which may change come Sunday).

Kansas City +5.5

I agree with you for now. I may also change this, but the Chiefs have looked decent in their last three losses. Does that mean they are due for a win, no, but it means they will probably stay close with a team that plays no defense. The Chiefs defense has been playing better, but I don’t see them holding down the Saints offense. Bush or no Bush, the Saints should rack up a lot of yards on the ground. This could be over at halftime, but I think the Chiefs keep playing with heart, especially at home.

Chiefs +5.5

16. Detroit @ Carolina (-14) We both nailed this one at -14. Seems about right. Seems about a good bet, too. Nothing like playing Detroit to make you forget about last week, huh Delhomme?

Carolina -14

Seriously, you know how they kept shooting up the Patriots lines last year but it didn’t matter how high they went, we were all still betting on them? Well its like the bizaro Patriots of 08. The Lions just lost at home to a seriously struggling Jags team 38-14. Is there any reason to expect less then 200 yards on the ground and 500 total yards from Carolina? How many picks does Culpepper throw, and is this offense really better with him on the field then Kitna?

Carolina -14

16. St Louis @ San Francisco (-6) This line has to be reflective of what kind of game happened on Monday, huh? There is not one good game in the NFC west. We can't say, "well, if so-and-so matches up against so-and-so, it'll be a good game." No. It'll never be a good game with this division. Don't bother me about Monday, it was a fluke. I didn't even watch it.

San Francisco -6

I got on the St Louis bandwagon too late and have stayed on too long. They looked like the worst team in the league last week and SF barely lost to their division leader on the road. You are right about this line being a product of last week. So shouldn’t we go the opposite way? Is St Louis finally going to cover again the week I decide to give up on them? Can SF play defense? St Louis sure can’t. I hate this game. Here is what I said when we guessed this line “(this depends too much on tonights game but a wild guess, -3 sounds good, haha)” the line probably changed three points based on that game. I am definitely going to waffle all week on this one.

Niners -6

16. Arizona @ Seattle (+3) What did I say? Not ONE good game in this division. Arizona should kill the Seahawks. By the way, I nailed this line.

Arizona -3

No, there will never be a good game because there is one good team and three terrible terrible terrible teams. I thought you were way off on this line, I had 7.5 (of course that was before the almost lost to SF at home). Seattle is overrated after beating up on SF and losing close to Miami. I still don’t buy Seattle. They may keep this close and they may pull the upset in a good stadium for that, but I can’t bet on them to do so. Arizona is a better team, Seattle will probably be worse with Hasselbeck who hasn’t played in a long time.

Cardinals -3

10-4

Both Oz and Clay are astonished that the Falcons rookie Matt Ryan has taken Atlanta from being a terrible team to a semi-watchable one. Clay in black, Oz in blue.

10. Cleveland @ Buffalo (-5) Yes, this is the tenth best game of the week.

That's a sign the apocalypse is upon us. Going into this year, I'd say this would be higher up, too. I like the way Cleveland is playing. On the other end, I have seen Buffalo a bunch of times this season and I want to say they're good, but I can't. Everyone got on their nuts when they started 4-0, but look at the teams they've beaten (Seattle, Jacksonville, San Diego, Oakland, and St. Louis ... yes, I've called San Diego bad twice already). The Bills aren't good. (Neither are the Browns, but they're better than the Bills)

Cleveland +5

Well I already used this one on you twice too, the Chargers my not be very good, but they beat the snot out of the Patriots and the Jets, your top two teams in the AFC East. Neither of these teams are good. I don’t know what to expect from the Bills these days, except boring crappy football. The Browns had a little fight last Thursday, but can they bring that on the road? Apparently someone in the Browns locker room commented that some of the guys are quiting on the team. That is not what you want to hear before a meaningless road game with a shitty coach and a rookie (I call a QB in his first year as a starter a rookie, is this ok?) QB.

Bills -5

9. Houston @ Indianapolis (-8.5) You were closer here on the line. I thought it'd be a little higher, but given Indy's inconsistency, you'd think they'll struggle with Houston ... ummm, oh wait. Remember the Texans blew a 17 point fourth quarter lead against this team? You don't think the Colts absolutely have this team's number? At home? Coming off two huge wins (granted they came off the other team beating themselves, hmm, which come to think of it is how the Colts win ALL their games)?

Indy -8.5

I really want to take Houston here because I feel like they always play Indy tough, but I see they have only beaten them once. The Texan’s defense isn’t stopping anyone, and after their showing last week at home, I can’t in my right mind take them with less then ten on the road. Indy may be coming into their own, and they may be dangerous down the stretch, which is not good for my Chargers in a game they really need next week. My heart says take Houston, but my brain tells me they haven’t a shot.

Colts -8.5

8. Tennessee @ Jacksonville (+3) Only three again, huh?

Yea, that's ludicrous. The Titans. 10-0, huh? Good for them. Perfection is not easy.

Tennessee -3

I love the Titans, they get no love, well they do from me. The only week I didn’t bet on them was Green Bay, when they didn’t cover. I think I keep riding this train. Jacksonville can’t turn crap into gold with one blowout over the worst team in the Big Ten, your Detroit Lions (really, they would probably lose to Penn St and Ohio St, no?).

Titans -3

7. Denver @ Atlanta (-6.5) I wanted to rank this higher because I think it will be fun to watch.

Atlanta has become a team that's fun to watch. It's been great seeing how well Matt Ryan has played in his rookie season. I thought it'd take a while for him to come along, but he's adjusted very nicely. The Falcons play stout defense, they can run the shit out of the ball, and Ryan is capable of putting up points through the air. They could win the NFC South (they won't).

Atlanta -6.5

You’re right, they won’t but that NFC South has turned out to be a very good, exciting conference, who’d of thought. The Broncos are tough to bet on. In Denver I love taking the points when they are favored by three or more. They aren’t going to stop the Falcons, but can the Falcons stop the Broncos? I think this is a shootout and the winner of the game is the last with the ball. At the very least, can’t you see the Broncos down 13, and scoring a worthless TD on a 2 minute drive to end the game and cover? I love picking the Broncos every week and being happy whether they win or lose.

Broncos +6.5

6. Minnesota @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) Tampa is good at home and the Vikings cost me winning my five-team parlay last week. Well, they didn't cost me shit. Green Bay did, but the Vikings didn't help. You know who has really helped the Vikings? Sidney Rice. At least it gives Frerotte another guy to throw to. This way, opponents can't stack the line and double-cover Berrian. He's opened up this offense nicely. That said, Tampa might be too good at home.

Tampa Bay -3.5

Tampa Bay is very good at home. These NFC South teams are all tough at home, and Minnesota didn’t sell me with that win last week. I still think their pass defense is too shitty to support a one dimensional offense. You are right that the pass offense is better with Rice, and Ferotte for that matter, but he is still Gus Ferotte, and this is a very good Tampa defense. I like the Bucs at home and hate them on the road.

Bucs -3.5

The #4 game was the Jets (+3) over the Patriots. Clay correctly picked the outcome. Oz? Not so much.

Top four games

Clay is in black this week, Oz in blue.

4. Dallas @ Washington (+1.5) I don't like the Skins here without Portis. I don't really like Dallas either, but I think they'll be a little better with Romo playing. This is always a tough division to pick because, really, any team can beat the other. Well, except the Giants.

Dallas -1.5

I don’t know what to think here. Dallas was favored by double digits at home last time. The Washington offense looks like crap again, and Portis isn’t healthy. Romo is going to be back, but will he be rusty. The Cowboys need this game big time, but Washington needs to get back on track too. This is a huge game between big rivals that seem to play each other tough no matter where each team stands at the time. If Brad Johnson hadn’t been so terrible, Romo would probably be taking this week off too. Damn, this is a shot in the dark for me. Washington won on the road last time and Romo was healthy, and they get no respect at home.

Skins +1.5

3. Baltimore @ New York Giants (-6.5) I'm not picking against the Giants again this season until the prove me wrong that they're the best team in the league. Should be a great game here. Lots of hitting. It'd be interesting to see the Giants runningbacks against the Raven defense. I remember I used to hate watching the Giants play (this was up until this year actually). Now they're fun to watch. I'm going to go hammer a nail through my hand now.

Giants -6.5

I think this game is rated too high, but there aren’t too many interesting matchups this week. I get bored thinking about this game, then again, the Giants have been fun to watch and the Ravens have been putting up points too. I still haven’t gotten on the Ravens wagon, but they have an awesome run D, and its about time to give Flacco some respect. The Giants are playing just about the best football, and I think they give Flacco some trouble. Eli is going to have to get it done on offense, and the Ravens could definitely force some mistakes here. I almost want to take Baltimore because I don’t know if the Giants can run on them and I don’t trust Eli, but the Giants just look really good here, and I don’t think the Ravens are a contender, so why would they take it to the defending champs in New York?

Giants -6.5

2. San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-4.5) reat game for #2. Yes, I'm being sarcastic. I guess knowing what we know now, the Pats-Jets would probably be #1, but that's all I'm going to say about that game. Anyway, I'm pretty sure the Steelers are better than the Chargers, but at the same time, San Diego typically only plays well against good teams. I'll go with my gut here. Do the Chargers miss Michael Turner? You know, since the best back in the NFL can only play on first and second down? (That's crap, by the way)

Pittsburgh -4.5

Pays to be the guy that ranks the game. Can the Chargers turn it around? The Chargers biggest weakness has been their pass rush and the Steelers biggest weakness has been their pass protection. I truly believe that if the Chargers woke up and could put pressure on QBs, all their problems would be solved. The secondary is good, but no one can cover receivers for five minutes and that is what’s happening. A couple of sacks, and some rushed throws and you start creating more turnovers and less wide open receivers. It really is that simple, so maybe this is the game for the defense to get some momentum. Then again, maybe Roethlisburger picks them apart and their number one defense picks off Rivers in the end zone like he seems to do every week.

Steelers -4.5

1. Chicago @ Green Bay (-3 that is a guess, no line yet) I told you that I got really drunk watching the game last night. When I asked you for advice, you suggested I just start to drink again. I really like your attitude, Clay. Have I ever told you that? Now, per your advice, I'm having a Bud and my headache is quickly disappearing. God bless this country. I wouldn't be able to do this in Iraq. Speaking of which, since we have a socialist president now, do I have to give away my beer too? I mean, I know I have to share, ooops, redistribute, my money. What about my beer? How does this work?

Chicago +3

That depends on how much beer you have. If you have over 200 beers then you will have to share, otherwise you are good.

I think the line actually came out at 3.5, but we will stick with this because I like it more. I don’t know if Orton is playing or not, if Rex is playing the Pack should dominate, and I will change them to my starting defense instead of the Giants, maybe I should anyway? I don’t know, I still like the Packsers and I still don’t like the Bears. The Bears have something like the 30^th ranked pass defense in the league. Don’t you think the Packers will take advantage of that? Can Forte beat the Packers? Maybe. Personally, I am probably staying away from this one unless Rex is starting. If he is in there I would take the Pack -9.

Packers -3

Top picks

Just Clay this week on the analysis. Oz will return next week. His picks are in blue.

7. Baltimore @ Houston (pk)

Houston pk

I’m not sure about Houston. I’d like them better if Schaub wasn’t hurt, and Sage hadn’t handed over a game in his last game. Baltimore may be legit, I haven’t quite bought into them yet, but they are probably better then Houston. This is a good matchup for them (especially without Schaub) because they shouldn’t have too much trouble with the Houston offense and shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball either. I like Baltimore to win this one.

Ravens pick

6. Buffalo @ New England (-4)

New England -4

The NFL is tough to figure this year. I think the Patriots are one of the worst teams in the league sometimes and others they look like a semi-contender. I still don’t think they are good because their offense isn’t explosive enough and their defense isn’t dominant enough. The Bills have trouble running the ball sometimes, and Edwards isn’t good enough to carry the team. My gut tells me that this is an ugly, close game and I can trade a field goal for a touchdown and still push, so I will take the points.

Bills +4

5. Green Bay @ Minnesota (-2.5)

Green Bay +2.5

I don’t think Minnesota is good. I think the Packers are a contender and will pull away in the division (depending on Kyle Orton’s health). I flat out think the Packers are better. Their offense and defense are both more well rounded than the one dimensional Vikings.

Packers +2.5

4. New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1)

New Orleans +1

Talk about an over game. Both offenses are very good and both defenses are very good. I am totally impressed with Matt Ryan, and I think everyone has a field day. I think the Saints are a bit better on offense, and I like the extra rest/planning, so I am going to take the road team off the bye. I sometimes take too much stock in the bye week, but in this case it is pretty even otherwise.

Saints +1

3. Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh (no line yet, I’ll guess -4)

Pittsburgh -4

Indy is boring. I guess the Steelers are too. Is Roethisburger healthy? Does it matter? I don’t know what to say here except that I think Pitt is a better team and they are at home were they are always dangerous. There is still no line because of Roethlisburger, but 4 sounds good. Another trade of a TD for field goal and a nice win for Pitt. It should be close, but I don’t trust Indy, they don’t have it.

Steelers -4ish

2. Tennessee @ Chicago (+3)

Chicago +3

I hear Orton may actually be playing this week. If Rex is playing, I love the Titans. If Orton is playing (and in good shape to do so) then it could be a very interesting game. Tennessee almost got beat by Baltimore because their offense isn’t great and a good defense will give them trouble. Chicago could do that to Tennessee, and if they win the turnover battle, could come out victorious. When Rex Grossman is your Qb, though, you don’t win the turnover battle. For now, I assume Rex is the QB, I assume Tenn wins the TO battle, and I have to take the most consistent team in the league giving 3 points against a team I think is just above average.

Titans -3

1. New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-3)

NYG +3

Bill Simmons pointed out that the Eagles are great against shitty teams, and the eff up against good teams. The Giants are good, and they are playing still like they have something to prove. With a coach and QB notorious for screwing up in the clutch, I have to take the defending champs. The Giants look better then everyone else out there, and I won’t give up points on them against anybody anywhere.

Giants +3

Week 9 picks

Brett Favre still wears Wrangler jeans ... and Clay and Oz both know someone who is turned on by this picture. He's not even gay.

Just Clay with the analysis this week; Oz will be back next week for the picks. His picks are in blue.

13. Jacksonville @ Detroit (+6.5)

Jacksonville -6.5

Detroit has the worst run D in the league, so I think Jacksonville should finally get something done on offense. Meanwhile, the Lions traded Orlovsky for Dante Culpepper, who was never really good, and now he is old. He was the worst QB in the league last year, and I don’t think a little extra time off will help. Jacksonville gets a much needed blowout here.

Jags -6.5

12. Seattle @ Miami (-8)

Miami -8

Seattle still doesn’t have Hasselbeck back, and they can’t seem to do much of anything well. They have never been good on the road, and Miami is quietly one of the better teams in the NFL. I don’t think this is close after the first quarter.

Miami -8

11. Carolina @ Oakland (+9.5)

Oakland +9.5

At first I was thinking this was too many points. I love taking Oakland at home as a big dog because even when losing they usually keep it close. Not this team. They seem to be giving up and have been blown out two straight weeks. Now they drop their big off season free agent, much to the surprise of the rest of the team “I don’t know why the would cut our best player.” Do you think they have any motivation to be good right now? I don’t and Carolina is damn good at home.

Panthers -9.5

10. Kansas City @ San Diego (-15)

Kansas City +15

This one is tough. As a Chargers fan I expect the team to come out of the bye fiery. They have a new, proven Defensive Coordinator and LT should be in good shape after a long rest against a terrible, terrible run defense. KC on the other hand has shown some life the last couple of weeks, still trying even though they are really bad. Those were both at home, though. Can the Chargers win by three scores? They are more than capable of it. Under Marty, they don’t cover this. The way I see it, if the defense plays really well, then we blow them out, right? If they play poorly, then the offense never shuts down to prevent a comeback and they run up the score. Either way, it’s a blowout against a team with a shitty offense and a shitty defense.

Chargers -15

9. San Francisco @ Arizona (-9.5)

Arizona -9.5 ... this is an over game, huh?

Yes, especially the Arizona team total. San Francisco is not good, and Arizona is looking like a division winner. I don’t think it is ever close here, sorry but I am all favorites so far.

Cardinals -9.5

8. St Louis @ NYJ (-9)

St. Louis +9

Until now. I think the Jets are over rated. They will not win the AFC East, and they will not make the playoffs. Their offense struggles to move the ball too often, and their pass defense is a liability. They got a good win on the road last week, but that was against another overrated team. If the Rams can get the ball moving in the air they have a great shot at winning this won, let alone keeping in under double digits. I am betting against the Jets here more than on the rams (who I still think is a decent team).

Rams +9

Top Picks

To some people (Clay), drinking before work seems to be acceptable.
Clay is in blue, Oz is in black.

4. Dallas @ NYG(-9):
Man, who'd have seen this coming last month. Giants should be up for this one and would love to blow out the Cowboys. By the time Romo comes back, they could be out of it already. The O line has been terrible for Dallas, and the Giants have probably the best pass rush in the league. I honestly think the Giants rip through Dallas. The Cowboys aren't doing much of anything well lately. They played good d last week, but Eli can throw deep, so they can't play the same defense. Giants -9

You're right about not being able to see this coming. To be truthful, I was expecting the Giants to struggle this year after their championship rings came in. They've proved me wrong. They're the best team in the league. The Cowboys might be in trouble, especially since the NFC is the tougher of the two divisions.

Giants -9

3. Pittsburgh @ Washington(-1.5):
Washington is a tough team to figure out. They are good, but I have trouble buying into them as a top tier team. They won at Dallas and at Philly. They are home most of the remaining sched. The problem I see washington running into is good defenses because their offense isn't explosive enough. This could be a very low scoring game with both defenses dominating. The thing is, you stop PItt with a good pass rush and Washington doesnt usually win that way. Steelers +1.5

This is a tough week for the Redskins. They could win this game, but I don't think they're on the Steelers level, at least physically. Pittsburgh hits hard, this game could be a slugfest. It should be a good game. Seems like an odd line to me.

Steelers +1.5

2. Green Bay @ Tennessee(-5.5):
I have been riding Tennessee for over a month now and it has been fun. I am getting off on this stop, though. They are coming off of a tough battle on Monday night and get a rested Green Bay team that has spent two weeks trying to figure out how to win this game. I think the Packers are the better then any team Tenn has faced thus far, and the should give the running game a challenge. Tenn could definitely win this one, but i like this being a low scoring close game, and I honestly think GB comes out ahead. Packers +5.5

I've been the opposite. Haven't bought into it until the Monday night game against Indianapolis. This is a classic letdown game that I won't let myself be talked into. Tennessee is better than Green Bay.

Tennessee -5.5

1. New England @ Indianapolis(-5.5):
Ahaaaaaa. This is interesting, hard to pick a winner here. I don't totally understand either team. The Pats are so inconsistent, and I dont know what they really do well. They rush the passer well, and Indy has had some trouble with that. New England is susceptible in the secondary, but Indy hasn't been doing much on offense, especially if they can get to Peyton. I think Indy gets Bob Sanders back this week so the backup running backs lose a bit of the edge. I have to admit I think the Patriots aren't good. Would I be surprised if New England won this game, no. Would I be suprised if Indy won by 24, no. Do I think both of these coaches would run up the score, yes. Indianapolis -5.5

Expect a shoot-out. I'm terrified of this game. I don't think the Colts are better than the Patriots. I can't pick against Belichick.

New England +5.5
I think I have a problem. I just finished and then made another bloody mary to go. Is that bad? It's 930 and I am drinking my second bloody mary, which has to be at least 50-50 or you end up just drinking tomato juice, on my way to beach day at work.

Picks 14-5

Say what you want about Jeff Garcia's voice, but this is his wife.

OZ is in black, Clay is is blue ...

14. Detroit @ Chicago(-13):

Next time I do this, I should try to guess the lines. I was thinking this was a two score spread. There's been talk for a couple years about how parody in the NFL will prevent a team from going undefeated and, along the same lines, prevent a team from going winless. I'm pretty convinced this Lions team has a shot. They almost seem as if they've packed it in. They're a terrible football team. It's a six hour drive from Detroit to Chicago. I'm positive it's not really worth it to travel.

(Come to think of it, they wouldn't take the bus (it's an hour plane right), but it really makes no sense. You get to the airport, I'm assuming players have to get checked even if it isn't in the long lines, then they board, wait for clearance then fly. Land, get off the plane, get luggage. We're talking a four hour trip anyway, no?)

CHICAGO -13

Yes, waste of time. No way they get anything going on offense and the Bears offense is good enough to tear apart this terrible defense. Coming off of a bye, they won’t be looking past this game. Blowout city.

Bears -13

13. Tampa Bay @ Kansas City(+8.5):

Even though it's funny to make "Garcia is gay" jokes, we can't front on his hot wife. She was playmate of the year and had our buddy Horse in a trance for about five months. The Buccaneers showed a little trouble with the Cowboys, but then again, the Cowboys are a good team. They aren't as good on the road as they are at home, and the Chiefs are excellent at Arrowhead. I, however, have been burned too many times betting against this team.

Tampa Bay -8.5

Yeah, Tampa is a tough team to bet on. One week they make you feel stupid for betting on them and the next it’s the other way around. I can’t ever bet on KC, though they do seem to be trying still. Tampa blew the big spread against Seattle a couple weeks ago, but they only need to win by 10 here. No reason they shouldn’t.

Bucs -8.5

12. Jacksonville @ Cincinnati(+7.5):

I have no idea what's up with Jacksonville. In the preseason preview, I wrote, "They're terrific defensively and apparently they can score, but they've never actually impressed me. I've never said to myself, "wow, Jacksonville is GOOD!" You were buying into it. Do I think they can blow out the second worst team in the NFL? Of course I do. Would I put any money on that happening? No way. I have no idea what to expect. If I lose, I lose.

Jacksonville -7.5

Speaking of mailing it in, the Bengals are terrible, you finally dropped Palmer from your team this week, and I wouldn’t care if Jacksonville was coming off a loss to Detroit, they should roll over the Bengals. I don’t even know what to say here. The Bengals suck on offense and defense, and the Jags are average at both these days.

Jags -7.5

11. Philadelphia @ Seattle(+6.5): I hate the NFC West. This is ranked low not because I hate the Eagles and think they suck but because I don't think this will be much of a game. I don’t buy Seattle after that win either.

After a 4-3 start (the three losses coming by a combined 14 points), there are a lot of people off the Eagles bandwagon, which might suit them. Of their last nine games, just three of them are against quality opponents (twice against the Giants, and @ Washington). This could be a dangerous team if they get on a roll heading into the postseason, which they will make.

Philly -6.5

Man, all favorites so far in a year where dogs continue to pull upsets. Home teams appear to be doing very well too. I am not buying into Seattle after a good week. They still have Seneca Wallace under center, and Philly is too good even for Andy Reid to blow this spread.

Eagles -6.5

10. Arizona @ St. Louis(+3):

I'm so happy I don't live in an area where this game would be aired, though. For every sick Larry Fitzgerald catch, there's ten plays when you realize you're watching the Cardinals. The Pats may have taken the wind out of the Rams sails last week. I hate taking road teams with lines like this. Apparently the oddsmakers think it'll be close.

Arizona -3

Yeah, this is an interesting line. I too think it will be close, though. Arizona hasn’t shown they can win on the road, and I don’t think St Louis got those wins by getting hot, I think they are a decent team, although Stephen Jackson screwed my pick last week by surprising me, and he could do the same this week. Arizona is improved on defense, but still not real formidable. With SJ, I like the Rams, without I would probably take them at gunpoint, but would rather leave it alone.

This reminds me, last week I had a four team ML parlay, all dogs to win outright. It paid out just over 50 to 1, and for a while it looked like it might happen. TB, St Louis, Miami and New Orleans; two of the four one, and the other two were winning or tied for the majority of the game. Lat scores by both favorites ruined me.

Rams +3

9. Miami @ Denver(-3):

No. There may not be a good team in the AFC West would you ever think the AFC East would be more competitive than the AFC West? The Dolphins are a lot better than the Broncos, even at Mile High.

Miami +3

I have trouble saying they are a lot better in Denver. Miami is pretty solid, they aren’t shitty at anything but they aren’t really spectacular at anything. I am wondering if they just surprised a couple of teams in a row. I think the Denver offense gets back on track this week, but Miami and the oh so popular lately Wildcat offense should have no trouble. Lots of points, and I have enjoyed taking dogs against Denver when getting 3 or more because I figure the visitors can always score easily at the end of the game to keep it close. Can Miami do that? Eh, I am not sure, but I’ll stick with the dog against Denver theory since it has worked thus far.

Miami +3

8. Atlanta @ Oakland(+3):

Imagine being a fan of either of these teams? At least I'd be more hopeful if I was a Falcon fan. Matt Ryan is going to be a good quarterback in this league. And who would have thought Michael Turner could carry the load?

Atlanta -3

I would definitely be happy as a Falcons fan right now, especially after last year. Who’d of thought Matt Ryan and Michael Turner would get this offense going right away. Atlanta is better, right? Neither team is great, but like I say every week, Atlanta is one of the better average teams. They won’t win games against the top tier, but they have enough eggs on their schedule they should finish around or above .500. Not so much for the Raiders and McFadden’s two turf toes. Really, he has turf toe on both feet? Who does that?

Falcons -3

7. NYJ @ Buffalo(-5.5):

I agree that the Jets are overrated. The Bills have been under the radar recently (loss @ Arizona, bye, win vs. San Diego, loss @ Miami), but they are 5-2. They get to play at Ralph Wilson again. This should be an interesting game, but the Bills should win.

BUFFALO -5.5

I think the Jets suck. I think the Bills are pretty good. They didn’t play especially well in the SD game, but they won, and that’s all that matters. That is kind of what I think this team does, it is what I expected going into the year. Not pretty, but solid. The Jets on the other hand stop the run, and could have a solid offense if Favre threw the ball to the green dressed guys more. You ‘d think he could handle this, he didn’t even have to change uniform colors. The Jets still seem to like running the ball more, because no one trust Favre. I don’t know what else to say, Jets are bad, Bills are better then average (which says a lot in a very average year).

Bills -5.5

6. Houston @ Minnesota(-4.5):

I'm reading this book called "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell right now and it's all about the importance of instantaneous reactions, and, while sometimes we don't know why we have a hunch, we can't ignore them. This is a great example of this idea.

Houston +4.5

Nice tie in there. I like Houston too, and Minnesota doesn’t seem to be doing anything right this year. Shaub and AP should both have good games, but this is too many points I think for a team that hasn’t really been good all year (although they beat me on Carolina earlier in the year).

Houston +4.5

5. Baltimore @ Cleveland(-1.5):

My mistake, they've won three of four games. They lost at Washington, but beat the Giants and won @ Jacksonville. I like this match-up for the Browns.

CLEVELAND -1.5

I like this matchup too, I don’t trust Flacco, and the Ravens have taken advantage of bad teams to get where they are. This is a great opportunity for the Browns. I like them to shut down the Ravens offense, and get enough going behind Anderson to win this one.

Browns -1.5